The Oakland Raiders are the No. 1 seed in the AFC Monday morning. By late Thursday, they could be the No. 5 seed.
One year ago, eventual Super Bowl champion Denver did not secure a playoff berth until the second-to-last week of the regular season and did not wrap up home-field advantage until the final week of the season.
There are four games remaining in the 2016 regular season, and it's shaping up as another crazy finish to the AFC playoff race.
The Raiders must travel to Kansas City and play the Chiefs on Thursday night. If the Chiefs win they'll be tied with the Raiders with 10-3 records, and the Chiefs win the tiebreaker based on a series sweep of the Raiders.
The Patriots would then jump up to the No. 1 seed and the Chiefs would be the No. 2 seed. The Ravens are currently the No. 3 seed based on their head-to-head victory against the Steelers and Houston the No. 4 seed, also based on a tiebreaker.
The Steelers, of course, would be the No. 3 seed if they win the AFC North. They're 7-5 and tied with the Ravens, who must come to Pittsburgh for a rematch on Christmas Day.
The Steelers aren't just gunning hard for the AFC North. They should be gunning hard to stay ahead of the first-place team from the AFC South because it would mean avoiding the Raiders, or Chiefs, in a wild-card game.
The Chiefs, if they beat the Raiders on Thursday, would have a decent chance to win out. After the Raiders, they have the Titans and Broncos at home before finishing up in San Diego.
In that scenario, the Raiders likely would be the No. 5 seed and play the No. 4 seed in the first round of the playoffs. Even though the game would be played at home, drawing the Raiders in a wild card game would be brutal for a division winner. The Raiders might have the best offense in the NFL.
Now, let's play out a different scenario. Let's say the Steelers lose the division to the Ravens but finish with a 10-6 record.
Everyone is handing the two wild-card spots to the second- and third-place teams from the AFC West, but the Steelers' three-game winning streak has reinvigorated the race for the No.6 seed.
The second-place team from the AFC North remains a long shot to earn a wild-card berth, but they're only one game behind Denver in the race for the No. 6 seed. The Dolphins also are 7-5 and own the tiebreaker over the Steelers based on their head-to-head victory. However, they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Ravens.
Denver has a difficult remaining schedule: at the Titans, at home against the Patriots, at the Chiefs and at home against the Raiders.
Given that schedule, getting to 10-6 would be a nice accomplishment for the Broncos. Since the Steelers and Broncos don't play during the regular season the first wild card tiebreaker would be conference record. Both teams are 5-3 in conference games with four games to go. The next tiebreaker after that is record against common opponents. The Steelers would win that as long as the Broncos lose to the Patriots.
The Steelers would need to finish one game better than the Dolphins to earn a wild card over them because the Dolphins beat the Steelers head-to-head. Assuming the Steelers finish with a 10-6 record, the Dolphins would have to go 2-2 at worst over their final four games.
The Dolphins' schedule isn't nearly as difficult as Denver's, but it's not easy by any stretch. They have the Cardinals at home this week followed by road games at the Jets and Bills before the final game at home against the Patriots, which may or may not mean something to the Patriots. Getting to 10-6 seems like a 50-50 proposition with that schedule.
The Steelers, meanwhile, play at Buffalo (6-6), at Cincinnati (4-7-1) and then play host to the Ravens (7-5) and the Browns (0-12) to finish the regular season.
Three weeks ago, playoff scenarios were a distant thought for the Steelers. Now they're distinct possibilities.
