Anyone would have bet on Lorena Wiebes to win In Flanders Fields on Sunday, but perhaps not many would have predicted that victory to come exactly in the way it did.
Winner of the past two editions of this race in fairly large, if somewhat reduced, bunch sprints, we already knew that Wiebes was more than capable of tackling the Ploegstreets and five bergs that liven up the route in Flanders because of the flat finale into Wevelgem.
But what we didn't know was that the Dutchwoman could blow the race to pieces on the climbs, draw out a group of strong, threatening riders, cover absolutely every attack on her own, and still win. Well, we know that now.
To rip up the race in the way she did and still win the sprint after her breakaway companions threw a lot at her was a clear show of strength – one of her hardest-fought and most impressive victories of her 122 so far – but it nearly went up in smoke at the finish line.
"It almost went wrong at the end," Wiebes admitted post-race, having sat up to celebrate a beat too early, and only holding off Fleur Moors by a small margin. It was almost a repeat of the early celebration that cost her victory in the Amstel Gold Race in 2022, a mistake she promised to only make once back then.
"Maybe one and a half times," she laughed. "A small flashback, but this time I had more feeling that it was good, you know? I could also hear the speaker saying it. It will keep me sharp for the rest of the races."
Forced to shut down moves from Eleonora Gasparrini (UAE Team ADQ) in the finale, and then – expectedly – left to lead-out the sprint.
"I started my sprint quite early, so that was also a small mistake. I could have waited a bit longer instead of going with 300 metres to go, but with this finish line it's so long already that you want to go, and especially when you're at the front, you don't want them to come from the back, and you don't know who is in which position," she explained.
"This finish is also quite hard, especially when I was already all the time leading or in the front pushing and keeping the speed a bit high. It's still quite a hard sprint. Sometimes bunch sprints can be easier than a sprint like this."
Though Wiebes wasn't beaten on Sunday, it was only a matter of days ago that she actually did take a rare defeat, boxed in in the Ronde van Brugge, finishing a lowly (by her standards) ninth. Watching In Flanders Field unfold, one wondered whether that had spooked her and she didn't want to 'risk' a big bunch finish again, attacking instead, but she didn't give much water to that theory.
"It was extra motivation today to win again," she said. "We made mistakes in the lead-out, we discussed that afterwards, we looked at it and analysed it. Actually, the plan was to do the lead-out today better, but things went different."
Things went very differently indeed, no do-over lead-out needed, and Wiebes explained that riding in the way she did was more of a spur-of-the-moment thing than a plan.
"I felt good from the beginning of the race on. On one of the Ploegstreets, I could follow Franziska Koch quite easily when she bridged to one of the front groups," she explained.
"Then I thought 'OK, legs are good' and then the first time Kemmel I was like 'Hmm, legs are still good'. Then on the Baneberg they started early also with the attacks, and then I was like 'OK, I can still follow quite easily'. Then we were away with this group with around 15 riders, and that made it also a bit easier towards the second time up the Kemmel. Then I was like, 'Yeah, why not pace it myself and see what happens?'.
What happened was that she got away with Moors, Gasparrini, Karlijn Swinkels (UAE Team ADQ) and Elise Chabbey (FDJ United-Suez), who, despite their best attempts, couldn't do much to stop Wiebes. A supreme sprinter, Wiebes absolutely could have sandbagged, let the group be caught by the peloton and probably still sprint from there, but she refused to gamble.
"I was more thinking that I needed to close it [when riders attacked]. It's better to close it and then lose the race than for one rider to get away, and the peloton comes back or something, you know? Because that's also the thing, we were not sure with the peloton. It's always a bit hard for me to know, because of course we get the information from the car, but still I haven't been in this situation many times to know."
'Hopefully I can be one of the cards' in Tour of Flanders finale
Though it's still a week away, questions very quickly turned to the biggest race of this Belgian block, the Tour of Flanders. Though a much more climb-heavy course than Sunday's In Flanders Fields, Wiebes has gone deep in Flanders previously, even forming part of a potentially winning late move in 2024 that was only brought back by her own team, settling for 11th.
Could her performance on the Kemmelberg be a strong reference to point for Flanders' climbs? Wiebes didn't want to get ahead of herself on that point.
"I don't fully agree, because also next week there are more hills, different riders," she said. "Longo Borghini, Vollering, Niewiadoma, all riders that are really strong in this kind of race. So we have to see also, but we have also Lotte next week, so hopefully I can be one of the cards still in the final, that's where I'm hoping for, even if it's in a second group behind.
"But as I say, we need to see how the legs are next week. It can be that next week the legs are shit," she remarked.
That truism aside, Wiebes did concede that she's been consistently improving in harder and harder races each spring, and there's a good chance of the legs being good again in seven days' time.
"I hope so," she said about making another step up next Sunday. "It will be different, it's different kind of climbs, they are of course longer also. Especially the Oude Kwaremont. But I hope I will have a bit of the same legs next week and that I can stay as long as possible in the front, of course.
"As I say, it's really hard for me to say about next week and how it will be, because it's a different race. But today I was really happy, and it gives you confidence, of course, to do a race like this and still feel strong when you're pulling with the breakaway. Today it felt good, and I'm happy with that."
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