Israel’s Election: First the Vote, then the Kingmaking

Israeli border police officers stand guard next to posters depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Ha'tikva market in Tel Aviv, Israel. (AP)

Israelis vote in a parliamentary election on Tuesday, choosing among party lists of candidates to serve in the 120-seat Knesset, reported Reuters Monday.

No party has won a majority of seats since Israel's first election in 1949. Following are questions and answers about the vote and what sort of coalition negotiations could emerge:

What happens after polls close?

Israel's major television stations and news websites issue exit polls when voting ends at 10 pm (1900 GMT) on Tuesday, estimating how many parliamentary seats each party has won, and then the coalition calculations begin.

Who's ahead in opinion polls?

Final polls in the campaign, on Friday, showed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had fallen behind his main challenger, centrist Benny Gantz, but still has an easier path to form a government that would keep him in power for a record fifth term.

How does coalition-building work?

Israel's president, Reuven Rivlin, consults with the leaders of every party represented in parliament as to their preference for prime minister, and then chooses the legislator who he believes has the best chance of putting together a coalition. The nominee, who does not necessarily have to be the head of the party that won the most votes, has up to 42 days to form a government before the president asks another politician to try.

What sort of coalition could be formed?

Netanyahu will likely seek a coalition, similar to his current government, with ultra-nationalist and Jewish Orthodox parties. Gantz, who heads the centrist Blue and White Party, will likely win the support of center-left and left-wing parties, but polls predict he will fall short of a governing majority in parliament, said Reuters.

What are the unexpected factors to watch?

A far-right politician, Moshe Feiglin, has been drawing unexpectedly strong support, opinion polls show, with a libertarian platform advocating the legalization of marijuana, free market policies and annexation of the occupied West Bank. He could be a kingmaker.

In Israeli politics, a "unity government" can never be ruled out if the path to a right- or center-left-led coalition proves difficult - even though Gantz has pledged not to serve with Netanyahu, citing corruption allegations against the Likud party leader, who has denied those accusations.