What is happening?
Israelis are voting on Tuesday in an election pitting Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, against Benny Gantz, a former army chief.
Did Israel not just have an election?
Correct. For the first time in its history, Israel is holding two national polls in one year.
Why would a country do that?
It is all to do with coalition building, a vital part of Israel’s political system in which it is extremely unlikely for a party to win an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset. In April, the prime minister and his rightwing allies appeared to come out ahead. But Netanyahu later failed to gather them into a majority government after he lost support from his former defence minister, Avigdor Lieberman. To give himself another shot, Netanyahu forced parliament to dissolve, triggering repeat elections.
What did Lieberman want?
Ostensibly, it was over disagreements between Lieberman’s secular party and Jewish ultra-Orthodox politicians. Lieberman refused to join a coalition with them unless Netanyahu agreed to force seminary students to serve in the army. Israel’s deeply observant minority have long been allowed to avoid the draft to study, but the issue has irked non-religious Israelis.
What is different this time?
Less than you might think. Netanyahu’s Likud party and Gantz’s Blue and White remain tied in polls, similar to April. However, Lieberman’s stunt appears to have won him support, possibly from secular voters, and he might win several more seats than last time. That could award him a kingmaker status, giving him a say over who becomes Israel’s next leader. Meanwhile, voter fatigue around having to do this all over again makes it possible there will an unusually low turnout.
What will happen?
The real battle for power is likely to begin the day after the election when the negotiating begins to form a coalition government. There are many potential scenarios in which both Netanyahu and Gantz may come out ahead. It’s even possible they will join together under a unity government. The big wildcard is another stalemate, which could lead to a third election in January.
How is Netanyahu faring?
Not as well as he would like, especially in a battle where the prime minister’s own freedom is potentially at stake. Netanyahu still faces three major corruption scandals – charges he denies – with pre-trial hearings to begin next month.
As with previous elections, the leader has sought to appease hardliners to gather support. Last week, he promised to annex a large part of the occupied West Bank and his campaign was slammed for anti-Arab racist messaging on Facebook.
Is the occupation an issue in this election?
Domestic politics in Israel has lurched far to the right, and the fate of millions of Palestinians under Israeli military control has all but disappeared from election campaigns.
