XRP (XRPUSD) was an underperformer for years. But since late last year, the XRP crypto has become one of the biggest comeback stories. XRP is up over 415% over the past year due to multiple positive catalysts materializing one after the other.
On July 13, 2023, District Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP sold on secondary markets is not a security. The token soared temporarily as crypto exchanges rushed to relist it for U.S. investors. That single headline ended the legal burden that began when the Securities and Exchange Commission filed its suit against parent company Ripple in December 2020.
However, after a brief pop, XRP continued to underperform due to the SEC appealing that decision.
That was until President Donald Trump won reelection in November 2024. His pro-crypto promises are why investors started betting that the SEC would finally end its pursuit of Ripple. Sure enough, the SEC formally dropped its appeal in March.
In the meantime, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was already soaring, fueling the broader digital asset market.
Institutional Support and Possible ETF Listings
As Bitcoin pushed above $100,000, investors also started bidding XRP higher. This is a crypto that has lots of use cases in processing international transfers and partnering with banks. As such, it will be one of the biggest winners if crypto does continue to go mainstream.
XRP broke $1, then $2, and briefly broke and held at $3 in the last two weeks of January. Profit-taking and the tariff drama in Aoril sent it to the $1.75 level. The crypto has recovered since then, and XRP has surged 48% in the past month.
There are now expectations for an eventual spot XRP ETF listing, expected to lead to an even more significant surge for those who want to hold cryptos with banking sector exposure.
XRP could surge massively on a spot ETF announcement. Based on Polymarket, ETF approval odds are currently at 86% for 2025.
Tailwinds in Washington
The Trump administration’s executive order on digital asset markets and the passing of the GENIUS Act made crypto investors more confident about where XRP was headed.
Trump has also announced a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which also includes other digital assets like Ethereum (ETHUSD) and XRP.
The odds of an ETF approval went up due to these tailwinds, and it became much more likely that more banks will partner up with XRP to handle transactions. There are also that BlackRock (BLK) is pressuring the SEC to approve XRP spot ETF applications.
Upgrades Could Boost Use Cases
In November, Ripple’s upgrade with eight amendments expanded the ledger’s capabilities for decentralized finance (DeFi) and token management. This included Multi-Purpose Tokens (MPTs) for more flexible institutional token use in DeFi, credentials for automated payment approvals based on ledger-stored credentials, and clawback support for automated market makers (AMMs) to enable revocable tokens in liquidity pools.
Ripple also unveiled its broader XRPL roadmap for this year to gain more DeFi adoption. This included plans to enhance Decentralized Identity (DID) standards with credentials for better regulatory compliance, permissioned decentralized exchange (DEX) features to restrict access based on know your customer (KYC) credentials, and permissioned domains for privacy-focused institutional platforms.
Another upgrade happened last month with seven amendments. This included TokenEscrow (enabling escrows for IOUs and multi-purpose tokens like stablecoins), Batch (for atomic execution of up to eight grouped transactions to streamline complex operations), and PermissionedDEX (allowing DEX operators to enforce compliance by controlling participant access). Other amendments added invariant checks for AMMs to enhance risk management, fixes for NFT trustlines and expired payment channels, improved transaction relay logic, and increased network I/O capacity for handling higher loads. XRP’s EVM sidechain also went live on June 30. This brought Ethereum-compatible smart contracts to the ledger.
Buy or Sell XRP at $3?
Any revisit of $3 would be a buying opportunity, as there are more opportunities for breakouts on the horizon. The ongoing correction from its $3.657 52-week peak seems more like an accumulation zone. The crypto is down 12% over the past five days, prompting some investors to think a move back below $3 could be in store.
$3 itself is a very strong support level, with the next one at the $2.87 20-day moving average. If XRP goes below $3, that may turn $3 into a strong resistance level, and I’d wait for the price to consolidate near $2.87 before buying.
There’s resistance at $3.23, $3.34, and $3.46. If XRP can break above $3.34 and hold without being rejected, and possibly rally to a new high, this could lead to $4 or more.
If a strong altcoin season happens this year, combined with spot ETF approval, XRP could reach $5.
