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Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) is a Fortune 500 managed care organization headquartered in Long Beach, California. It operates within the Health Services sector, specifically in the Managed Health Care industry, and its market capitalization stands at $9.5 billion.
Molina Healthcare delivers essential health insurance services through government-funded programs, including Medicaid, Medicare, and state Marketplace offerings primarily targeting low-income and underserved populations across multiple U.S. states.
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Molina Healthcare stock has significantly underperformed, with its stock declining 39.5%, whereas the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 10.2%. Over the past 52 weeks, MOH has slipped 49.7%, while the benchmark rose 15.2% over the same stretch.
Narrowing the focus, MOH stock has also trailed behind the SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF (XHS), which tracks the healthcare services sector. XHS rose 9% in 2025, while remaining flat with around 0.1% gains over the past year.
MOH stock’s recent decline stems largely from intensifying medical cost pressures across its core government-backed health insurance segments, including Medicaid, Medicare, and ACA Marketplace plans. These elevated costs have outpaced premium revenue increases, diminishing profitability and triggering a downward revision of full-year adjusted EPS guidance to at least $19.
In the Q2 2025 earnings report, released on July 23 after the bell, Molina Healthcare generated revenue of $11.4 billion, up 15.7% year-over-year (YoY). However, adjusted EPS came in at $5.48, down 6.5% annually. MOH stock slipped nearly 17% in the subsequent trading session.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December 2025, analysts expect Molina’s EPS to decline 18.1% YoY to $18.56, on a diluted basis. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history overall. While it surpassed the Street’s bottom-line projections in two of the trailing four quarters, it missed the EPS estimates in the other two.
Overall, Wall Street appears cautious about MOH stock, with a consensus “Hold” rating - a downgrade from a “Moderate Buy” rating. Of the 17 analysts currently offering recommendations, four advise a “Strong Buy,” 11 give a “Hold,” one has a “Moderate Sell” rating, and the remaining one has a “Strong Sell” rating.
The current configuration shows that analysts’ sentiment has softened compared to two months ago. “Strong Buy” ratings slipped from six to four, and there is an addition of a “Strong Sell” rating, signaling a more cautious and bearish outlook.
Recently, Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed its “Neutral” rating and $210 price target on MOH stock, citing concerns over Molina’s 2026 outlook for its Florida operations.
The mean price target of $194.07 represents a premium of 10.2% to MOH’s current price. The Street-high price target of $284 suggests the stock can rally as much as 61.3%.
