Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ), headquartered in Victor, New York, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits. With a market cap of $33.1 billion, the company provides beer primarily under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Hard Seltzer, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Modelo Negra, Modelo Oro, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brands.
Shares of this leading beverage alcohol company have underperformed the broader market considerably over the past year. STZ has declined 25.8% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 10.1%. In 2025, STZ’s stock fell 16.4%, compared to the SPX’s marginal dip on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, STZ’s underperformance is also apparent compared to the First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG). The exchange-traded fund has declined about 10% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 2.7% dip on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s double-digit losses over the same time frame.
STZ's underperformance is due to its heavy reliance on Mexican-produced brands like Modelo, Corona, and Pacifico, which are subject to Trump administration tariffs. Additionally, the company is facing challenges from declining wine sales, lower alcohol consumption among younger consumers, and potential existential threats similar to tobacco companies.
On Apr. 9, STZ shares closed up more than 7% after reporting its Q4 results. Its adjusted EPS of $2.63 surpassed Wall Street expectations of $2.28. The company’s revenue was $2.2 billion, topping Wall Street forecasts of $2.1 billion. STZ expects full-year adjusted EPS in the range of $12.60 to $12.90.
For fiscal 2026, ending in February 2026, analysts expect STZ’s EPS to decline 7.6% to $12.74 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion.
Among the 22 analysts covering STZ stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on nine “Strong Buy” ratings, three “Moderate Buys,” and 10 “Holds.”
This configuration is more bullish than a month ago, with eight analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On May 19, Roth MKM analyst Bill Kirk reiterated a “Buy” rating on STZ and set a price target of $239, implying a potential upside of 29.4% from current levels.
The mean price target of $213.43 represents a 15.5% premium to STZ’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $295 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 59.7%.
