Richmond, Virginia-based Altria Group, Inc. (MO), with a market capitalization of approximately $113.7 billion, is a leading U.S. tobacco company that manufactures and markets cigarettes, cigars, smokeless tobacco, oral nicotine pouches, and e-vapor products, while expanding its portfolio of smoke-free nicotine alternatives.
Shares of this leading tobacco company have underperformed the broader market over the past year. MO has gained 9.5% over this period, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has advanced 22.6%. However, the stock has outperformed the index in 2026, gaining 18.7% year-to-date, compared with the S&P 500's 12.8% return over the same period.
Compared with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP), MO has delivered stronger returns. The ETF has gained 6% over the past year and 9.9% on a YTD basis.
On July 30, Altria reported its Q2 FY2026 results, sending its shares down 9.3% as modest earnings miss overshadowed a revenue beat. Net revenues edged up marginally year over year to $6.11 billion, as higher smokeable products revenue was offset by a 5.3% decline in oral tobacco products revenue. Adjusted diluted EPS increased 2.8% to $1.48.
Altria narrowed its full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $5.61 to $5.72, representing growth of 3.5% to 5.5% from $5.42 in 2025, while raising the lower end of its prior guidance from $5.56. .
Analysts expect MO's diluted EPS to rise 4.8% year over year to $5.68 for the fiscal year ending in December 2026. MO has surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing estimates in the remaining two.
Among the 15 analysts covering MO stock, the consensus is a "Moderate Buy." That rating is based on five "Strong Buy" ratings, eight "Hold" ratings, one "Moderate Sell" rating, and one "Strong Sell" rating.
This consensus has remained consistent over the past few months.
On July 31, Gerald Pascarelli of Needham reiterated a "Hold" rating on Altria Group, citing modest earnings miss and expectations for slower growth in the second half of the year, which he believes limit the stock's near-term upside.
Based on analysts' estimates, the mean price target of $70.50 implies a 3% premium to MO's current share price. The Street-high price target of $82 suggests an upside potential of 19.8%.
