Dame Priti Patel flew to Washington DC this week to convince Donald Trump’s administration to kill off Sir Keir Starmer’s beleaguered Chagos Islands deal with Mauritius.
The Tory shadow foreign secretary’s trip came after the government pulled plans to bring forward a vote in the Lords on Tuesday this week to ratify it in a what has become a crisis for the prime minister.
The trip was prescient with foreign office minister Hamish Falconer admitting on Wednesday the attempt to ratify the treaty has been paused.
Although the Foreign Office later claimed Mr Falconer had “misspoke” and there was no pause, it conceded it will only go ahead with US support.
Sir Keir, who this week faces the prospect of a make-or-break by-election in Gorton and Denton, was also facing transatlantic demands to scrap the deal to hand Mauritius sovereignty of the Chagos Islands amid concerns for the crucial Diego Garcia base located there.
The row with Trump
The prime minister claimed he had “no choice” but to do the deal with Mauritius because of a ruling by the International Court of Justice and the United Nation’s Law of the Sea, but his critics claim he is ignoring UK opt outs on international law.
In fact, a letter to Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle coordinated by former security minister Sir John Hayes looks set to lead to questions over whether ministers misled parliament on this issue further complicating the ratification for the PM.
Now Trump has finally ditched his support via his Truth Social platform, Dame Priti’s trip to Washington and a failed trip by Nigel Farage to the islands shows that political opponents sense the PM can be defeated on the Chagos issue. The race is on to claim credit for his humiliation.
It seems highly unlikely the president will change his mind again. He has told allies he was “lied to” by Starmer over the deal. Sources have told The Independent he only went along with because of not wanting to ”upset King Charles” ahead of his visit to the White House on 4 July to mark the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.
His anger seems to have peaked once the UK blocked the US from using RAF bases to bomb Iran but a Presidential veto was “well on its way already” according to those closely involved.
But the biggest issue is that sources in the UK Foreign Office and US administration have told The Independent that China is believed to be negotiating with Mauritius to get a presence on one of the islands if sovereignty is transferred.
A political football
The return last week to the islands by a group of Chagossians with former MP and army officer Adam Holloway was funded by Reform’s biggest donor, the Thailand based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne but rightwing opponents have been working for some time on the issue.
When the deal was first announced back in 2024 it was the Conservatives, who actually started the talks with Mauritius, who led the charge in parliament to oppose it while Mr Farage tried to lobby Trump to veto it.
What emerged was a team connected to the Great British PAC - a political pressure group set up to bring legal challenges founded by Conservative Post founder Claire Bullivant and chaired by Advance UK leader Ben Habib - to challenge the deal.
They joined up with the exiled Chagossians, led by their first minister in exile Misley Mandarin, who is now back on the islands planning to resettle them, to fight for their demand for the islands as a British protectorate.
Leading lawyer James Tumbridge, who had worked extensively for the Tories and Brexit Party, was brought in to judicially review the decision. He also got a judge to agree to an injunction to block UK officials removing the Chagossians from the islands last week. Round two of this legal battle takes place on Thursday.
Ahead of Dame Priti’s visit, trips to DC by former Downing Street advisor Robert Midgely, ex-Home Office spad Christopher Howarth and former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith persuaded the State Department and Department of War that Sir Keir’s legal arguments on Chagos were wrong.
Opponents have also been working with Labour MPs and peers to stop the deal including attempting to get Angela Rayner to come out against it. Blue Labour MP Dan Carden has already gone public against the treaty with others privately backing him.
What next for Starmer and Chagos?
Sir Keir has to get the treaty ratified before May or it fails, and it now seems the whole issue has been paused because of US opposition. But him getting it ratified anyway only happens assuming he is not ousted beforehand with eyes very much on the Gorton and Denton by-election on Thursday.
But until the pause was suggested the treaty was expected to come back to the Lords in early March although no date has been officially set. This meant the Lib Dems in the Lords were being heavily lobbied to vote with the Tories to kill the treaty off.
There was some small hope for Starmer – a meeting between Lib Dem peer Lord Jeremy Purvis and the Chagossians did not go ahead this week in a sign they may abstain. But even if it was not killed in the Lords it will have to go to the Commons, because of other amendments where Labour MPs are getting restless.
The one thing Sir Keir has been praised for was his international statesmanship. But now the Chagos nightmare suggests even that is unravelling for this PM. So while the clock is ticking to May on this treaty, it is in fact also ticking on Sir Keir’s premiership.
With an unofficial pause now in place the only question is who takes credit for Sir Keir latest embarrassment and U-turn in government. Mr Farage, who tried and failed to join the protesting Chagossians on the island at the weekend, had an urgent question in the Commons and wants to take sole credit. but the Tories argue they have done the legwork. Those involved in the Great British PAC team argue point out that it was very much their work.
The reality though is that Sir Keir has been undone once again by the quixotic nature of the US president. He was praised for being “the Trump whisperer” by other international leaders but now it is Trump who has humiliated him on the international stage.
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