Is the US Economy in Recession? 1 Overlooked Recession Indicator That's Flashing Red Right Now

Everyone watches stocks, jobs, and the Fed. But one of the most reliable economic warning signs isn’t on Wall Street; it’s on the highways.

Heavy-duty truck sales have plunged to their lowest level in four years. And historically, when truck sales fall sharply, recessions often follow.

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via @barchart on X

Why Trucks Matter More Than You Think

Heavy trucks aren’t just vehicles; they’re the backbone of the economy:

• They move goods across supply chains
• They fuel construction and industry
• They reflect business confidence, since firms only buy new trucks when they see strong demand ahead

When sales fall, it signals that companies expect slower times — and these slumps often line up with recessions on economic charts.

Key Points to Know Now

• Tariffs: President Trump just announced a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, making purchases even more expensive for fleets.
• UBS Forecasts: Analysts at UBS estimate a 93% chance of U.S. recession this year based on income, consumption, production, and employment data.
• GDP Snapshot: The U.S. dodged a technical recession in Q2 2025, with GDP rebounding to +3.8% after a -0.6% drop in Q1. But October brings another GDP update, alongside inflation and Fed rate decisions.

What the Data Really Shows

Since 1979, a collapse in truck sales has coincided with nearly every U.S. recession. While there have been a few false alarms, the overall pattern is strong enough that many economists consider truck sales a bellwether for downturns.

Even now, heavy truck sales growth has been negative for nearly two years, while GDP has remained positive at an average 2.7%. That divergence raises the question: are truck sales flashing an early warning the broader market is missing?

Watch this quick newsreel for the story:

Tools to Track It on Barchart

With Barchart’s tools, you can monitor critical economic signals in real time:

1. $DSHR Index: The U.S. Commercial Vehicles & Trucks Index on Barchart tracks the performance of truck manufacturers and related companies.
2. Economic Calendar: See upcoming GDP releases, inflation reports, and Fed decisions.
3. Sector & Index Tools: Follow how trucking, transports, and industrials react to macro shifts using the Industry Heat Map and Stocks by Grouping tools. 

Key Takeaway

Heavy truck sales may not dominate Wall Street headlines, but they’re one of the clearest recession signals in the real economy.

If you want to stay ahead of downturns — keep an eye on trucks, tariffs, and GDP releases using Barchart’s tools and news feed.