The Premiership resumes tomorrow, but many bettors seem to feel there is little point in its doing so. According to the markets, it is overwhelmingly likely that the eventual winners will be Chelsea. Is it really such a foregone conclusion?
At the moment, Chelsea and Manchester United are level on points with 31 games to play. Over the last 31 games, Chelsea have gained one point more than Manchester United. Yet with fixed-odds bookmakers, Jose Mourinho's side are as short as 1-2 and Sir Alex Ferguson's men are as big as 9-2. On the exchanges you can get slightly better prices, even after allowance for commission, with the added advantage of being able to back or lay.
The betting markets imply that Chelsea are between three and four times as likely to claim the title as United. Yet this conclusion is at odds with the most recently available evidence.
Roman Abramovich's millions have enabled Chelsea to raise the bar that others must clear if they want to become champions, but when you set a challenge for competitive high-performers you may well get a response, however hard it is for them to give that response. If you told an Old Trafford season-ticket holder that this is one of the best Manchester United teams in the club's history, you might hear a dismissive snort. Yet judged on league results - their performances against the best of their English contemporaries - they are.
Last season, United averaged nearly 2.2 points per game. Let's assume that teams have always received three points for a win and one for a draw - in other words, let's rewrite a lot of the older league tables. If we do this, we will find that Manchester United's points per game yield last season was one of the best five in their history, and, for that matter, better than in 11 seasons when they won the title.
Two seasons ago, runners-up Arsenal collected 83 points and finished 12 behind Chelsea. As last season's runners-up, Manchester United also collected 83 points and finished eight behind Chelsea. The most recently available evidence encourages the hope that this season the gap may be even smaller - and could disappear altogether.
Beat the bookie Points gained from the previous 31 Premiership matches show the gap is closing between the champions and their nearest rivals:
Chelsea 70 points Manchester United 69 points Liverpool 64 points Arsenal 52 points
Kevin Pullein is football tipster for the Racing Post
