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As the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution reshapes industries and global tensions rise in 2025, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stands at the nexus of data analytics and digital warfare. More than just another AI software company, Palantir powers real-time decision systems for defense, intelligence, and high-stakes enterprise. Founded in the post-9/11 urgency, the firm's roots run deep with U.S. federal agencies — and now, it’s storming the commercial arena with its AI-driven platforms.
The geopolitical storm intensified in June with the Israel-Iran conflict, amplifying a global climate that was already heating up from Russia-Ukraine tensions and flashpoints across the Taiwan Strait. Nations turned to technology that could process chaos at speed, and Palantir delivered. Trusted by the U.S. government and now adopted by NATO across all 32 member states, Palantir’s influence has expanded in lockstep with global instability.
There's no surprise, then, about PLTR stock’s impressive rally fueled by investor confidence in its relevance and reach. Yet, the stock's premium valuation remains a point of contention, with market optimism often outweighing near-term fundamentals.
As the calendar flips to July, can PLTR stock’s high-flying run continue? Or is it time for investors to wait it out — or even cash out — before reality hits?
About Palantir Stock
Founded in 2003, Palantir began with a bold mission to support national security through smarter data. Fast forward, and it now powers decision-making across governments and industries through Gotham, Foundry, and its newest force multiplier launched in 2023, the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP).
This is not just software, but strategic infrastructure. Palantir enables institutions to transform fragmented data into operational clarity and action. With a market capitalization of $308 billion, the firm is a software titan in the large-cap arena.
PLTR stock has been on a tear of late. Up 80% year-to-date (YTD), PLTR stock brushed a 52-week high of $148.22 on June 26 before cooling off slightly. Even in a shaky macro environment, Palantir is wearing the crown as the S&P 500’s ($SPX) top performer so far this year. Zooming out, PLTR has skyrocketed a jaw-dropping 438% over the past 52 weeks, 789% over the past two years, and a mind-blowing 1,240% over the past three years.
Palantir’s rally is hard to ignore, but its valuation is eye-watering, with shares trading far above AI peers and prominent tech giants. Priced at 394 times forward adjusted earnings and 118 times sales, PLTR stock has a premium price tag and carries sky-high expectations.
Palantir Tops Q1 Earnings Projections
Palantir commenced 2025 with a commanding performance, delivering robust first-quarter earnings results on May 5. The company posted a 39% year-over-year (YOY) revenue surge to $884 million — just ahead of estimates — while adjusted EPS soared 62% to $0.13. Fueling this surge was Palantir’s AI-powered engine, AIP, which has gained massive ground in both government corridors and corporate boardrooms.
The government business pulled $487 million, jumping 45% YOY, with the U.S. accounting for $373 million of that haul. Central to the climb was Palantir’s partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense and its AI brainchild, the Maven Smart System.
In the U.S. overall, revenue surged 55% annually to $628 million. But the spotlight was on U.S. commercial revenue, which climbed 71% to $255 million. Commercial bookings reached a record $810 million, marking a 183% annual spike. To top it off, Palantir ended Q1 with $5.4 billion in cash and no debt. Adjusted free cash flow rose to $370.4 million, more than double last year.
Keeping the first quarter’s momentum alive, Palantir also lifted its full-year outlook, guiding for full-year fiscal 2025 revenue between $3.89 billion and $3.902 billion. U.S. commercial sales are set to climb to $1.178 billion for 2025, while free cash flow is estimated to be between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion. Finally, Q2 revenue is forecast to be between $934 million and $938 million.
Analysts tracking Palantir expect 2025 profit to reach $0.37 per share, up 362% YOY. They also see another 16% rise to $0.43 per share in fiscal 2026.
What Do Analysts Expect for Palantir Stock?
Loop Capital turned the dial up on Palantir this month, raising its target to $155 and sticking to its “Buy” call. Loop called Palantir an “early software leader” in enterprise AI — bullish on AIP, upbeat on momentum, and confident in the firm's edge as AI demand explodes.
But the room is not all in sync. Citi sees valuation clouds and is closely monitoring key deals, such as Golden Dome. Even so, the analyst walked away more assured in Palantir’s core strengths.
Wall Street remains divided on Palantir. While bulls tout the company’s AI edge, bears urge caution. PLTR stock has a consensus “Hold” rating overall. Of the 20 analysts offering recommendations, three advise a “Strong Buy,” 12 analysts play it safe with a “Hold" rating, one leans slightly bearish with a “Moderate Sell,” and the remaining four analysts offer “Strong Sell" ratings.
Although PLTR is trading at a premium to its average analyst price target of $104.94, the Street-high target of $155 signals that PLTR can still rise nearly 14% from current levels.
Final Thoughts on Palantir
In a world full of geopolitical uncertainty, Palantir finds itself in the right place at the right time. With governments boosting defense budgets and NATO allies eyeing a 5% GDP spend, Palantir’s software is positioned as a crucial tool in modern warfare and defense. Its deep-rooted government ties and reputation as a trusted tech partner are starting to echo loudly in both D.C. and around the world.
Beyond defense, Palantir’s AI-powered commercial arm is just getting warmed up. Customer growth, rising demand for enterprise efficiency, and its early-mover edge in AI software all suggest this story isn’t close to finished.
Still, Palantir’s growth story has a speculative edge — its sky-high valuation hinges more on future promise than present fundamentals. While its AI momentum draws eyes, PLTR stock remains a high-risk, high-reward bet. The stock may look overheated now, but for those who can stomach the volatility and believe in the long-term vision, there could still be upside ahead.
On the date of publication, Sristi Suman Jayaswal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
