KOCHI: Is Kerala opening up too soon? Following the trend in other states, Kerala too, after announcing the opening of its educational institutions, has now announced opening of the entertainment zones, including cinema halls.
However, unlike other states where the daily cases and deaths are very few now, Kerala continues to remain on a high plateau, reporting more than 50% of daily cases and 70% of daily deaths in the country.
Though public health experts said that life has to go on and Malayalis have to learn to live with the realities of post-Covid times, they have also warned that people will have to pay a heavy price if there is violation of Covid protocols.
“Opening up should be based on scientific algorithm — sero survey, vaccination status and total number of persons infected with Covid. But instead we are imitating other states and our decisions are often aimed at satisfying different groups.
Looking at our present daily number of cases and deaths, opening up almost everything is a hasty move. While schools and colleges can be opened, entertainment hubs can wait a little longer to reduce the potential risk. Otherwise, we need to have a mechanism in place to ensure that there is strict adherence to Covid norms. But that is not happening now,” said Dr Jayakrishnan A V, chairman of IMA’s committee on Covid vaccines and vaccination strategy.
Incidentally, the state government had conducted a seroprevalence survey in September in six groups; general population, tribal population, coastal population, people living in slums, pregnant women and children. Both antispike antibody and anti-nucleocapsid antibodies were analysed separately in all samples. But even as the results are yet to be announced, there is rapid opening up of all institutions and activities.
“I calculate that by now we have 70-80% seropositivity. In May, Kerala’s seropositivity was 44.4%. Since then we have reported more than 2.2 million cases in Kerala alone. The undetected infections during this time would be at least another 8-9 million.
Our vaccination is also high with almost 92% of the eligible population or 70% of the total population with at least a single dose of the vaccine. So, there should not be much problem with the state opening up. But if anything needs to wait a little bit longer, then it is opening up of totally enclosed air-conditioned places,” said health economist Rijo John.
Dr Padmanabha Shenoy, who has been analyzing Covid patterns across India, has also estimated Kerala’s seroprevalence to be around 80% in adults and 40% in children.
“What option does the government really have but to open up? People need to be self disciplined and bring in self restrictions to protect themselves. The mental and financial toll on people has been too huge for any government to ignore,” said Kerala Government Medical Officer's Association president Dr G S Vijayakrishnan.
