Ondas Holdings (NASDAQ:ONDS) is positioning itself at the heart of a drone industry boom, with soaring defense demand, new federal policies, and expanding global adoption expected to fuel a sharp revenue surge starting in 2025.
The company’s autonomous drone and counter-UAS platforms, backed by a growing pipeline of government orders, signal a potential inflection point as the U.S. accelerates investment in unmanned aerial systems.
Needham analyst Austin Bohlig kicked off coverage on Ondas Holdings with a Buy rating and $5 forecast, calling the drone maker a top U.S. pure-play poised to ride a multi-year unmanned aerial systems supercycle.
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He projects revenue to jump 234% in 2025 and nearly triple again in 2026, backed by defense orders, new federal policies, and expanding global demand.
Bohlig highlighted the stock’s inclusion on the Needham Conviction List, citing a transformational opportunity in unmanned aerial systems (UAS).
He argued that the drone industry is entering a multi-year supercycle fueled by rising global demand for autonomous offensive and defensive platforms, favorable U.S. legislation, and unprecedented government spending.
Bohlig sees Ondas as one of the best-positioned U.S. pure-play drone companies, supported by its end-to-end portfolio spanning defense, homeland security, drones-as-a-first-responder (DFR), and critical infrastructure.
He highlighted the Optimus autonomous drone-in-a-box system and Iron Drone counter-UAS platform as differentiated technologies, complemented by proprietary fleet management, mission control, and analytics software.
With new U.S. executive orders mandating expedited BVLOS approval, federal procurement of U.S. drones, and expanded counter-UAS enforcement, Bohlig said Ondas is aligned directly with policy momentum.
Financially, Bohlig projects a sharp revenue inflection beginning in 2025. He estimates total revenue to grow 234% year-over-year to $24 million in 2025, driven by defense orders and expanding U.S. pilots.
Nearly $23 million of that total should come from the Autonomous Systems division, while Networks contributes about $1.4 million.
In 2026, he forecasts revenues to surge 194% to $71 million, with Autonomous Systems rising to $63 million (including $40 million organic and $20 million from M&A) and Networks climbing to $7.7 million as rail deployments accelerate.
Bohlig noted Ondas already secured $39 million in orders since late 2024, primarily from the Israel Defense Force, with additional DoD and homeland security opportunities in the pipeline.
On profitability, Bohlig expects gross margins to expand from 5% in 2024 to 43% in 2025, then further to 48% in 2026 as production scales.
While he forecasts a $28 million adjusted EBITDA loss in 2025, losses should narrow in 2026, with break-even possible by 2027 if contract wins or acquisitions exceed expectations.
Price Action: ONDS stock is trading lower by 8.10% to $3.685 at last check Tuesday.
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