Dec. 13--Jason Heyward is a rarity in modern baseball: a player who reached free agency in his prime years. Heyward -- who agreed to an eight-year, $184 million deal with the Cubs on Friday -- is the youngest player to hit free agency and sign a contract worth at least $100 million since Alex Rodriguez, who signed a 10-year, $252 million megadeal with the Rangers in 2001.
Heyward will spend at least the first three years of his contract on the North Side, his age 26-28 seasons. Steamer, a projection service that forecasts player futures, pegs Heyward's Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at 4.8 in 2016 -- or 1.2 less than in 2015.
Fangraphs makes some useful assumptions for attempting to put a value on a player's contract. First, it assumes the cost of 1 WAR (which starts at $8 million in 2016) will go up 5 percent each season. Next, it projects production on an aging curve: Through age 27, a player's WAR increases by 0.25 per season, plateaus over his age 28-30 seasons and decreases by 0.5 between ages 31-37.
YEAR AGE WAR COST AAV VALUE
2016 26 4.8 $8.0M $23M $38.4
2017 27 5.05 $8.4M $23M $42.4
2018 28 5.05 $8.8M $23M $44.4
TOTAL 14.9 $69M -- $125.2
Applying this math, Heyward projects to be worth 14.9 WAR over the first three years of his deal. Only 12 players posted a higher total WAR in the last three years. His production projects to be valued at $125.2 million -- or $56.2 million more than the $69 million his contract calls for at an annual average value of $23 million.
YEAR AGE WAR COST AAV VALUE
2019 29 5.05 $9.3M $23M $46.9
2020 30 5.05 $9.7M $23M $48.9
2021 31 4.55 $10.1M $23M $45.9
2022 32 4.05 $10.5M $23M $42.5
2023 33 3.55 $10.9M $23M $38.6
TOTAL 22.25 -- $115M $222.8
Heyward reportedly has an opt-out after the third and fourth years of the contract, which could allow him to strike it rich one more time in free agency. His value in his age 29-33 seasons projects to 22.25 WAR -- or an estimated $222.8 million, which is approximately $107 million more than he is scheduled to make.
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YEAR AGE WAR COST AAV VALUE
TOTAL 8 YR 37.15 -- $184M $348
Obviously, these are best-case scenarios. The projections don't take things such as the human element or potential injuries into consideration while assuming a typical aging curve and value based on inflation tendencies. The aging curve rarely is linear, but it is clear production declines with age.
But in this scenario, Heyward is projected to be worth 37.15 WAR -- or a whopping $348 million. Over the last eight years, Fangraphs has valued only two players' production at $300 million or higher, neither one an outfielder.
Miguel Cabrera (43.4 WAR, $301.1 million) and Evan Longoria (42.8 WAR, $300 million) are at the top of the class. Joey Votto (41.7 WAR, $291.2 million) is next, while Andrew McCutchen (40.3 WAR, $286.1 million) has been the most valuable outfielder over the last eight years. Since debuting in 2010, Heyward has been Fangraphs' 11th most valuable player, worth $198.4 million.
So, while $184 million seems like a steep price, Heyward could bring much more value to the club.
lcmedina@tribpub.com
