Journeyman quarterback Sam Darnold surprised virtually everyone in 2024 when he had his first Pro Bowl season, throwing for over 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns, and leading the Minnesota Vikings to a 14-3 record in the process. However, Darnold has now taken his talents to the Seattle Seahawks, leaving second-year QB JJ McCarthy as the guy in Minnesota.
McCarthy’s rookie season — if you could even call it that — was one to forget. After being drafted by the Vikings out of Michigan with the 10th pick of the 1st round that year, McCarthy reported soreness in his knee after the team’s first preseason outing. This soreness wound up being a torn meniscus, which required surgery to repair and force McCarthy out for the entirety of 2024.
Now that Darnold has moved on, McCarthy is expected to be the starter going into the 2025 season. But is he ready to lead the Vikings back to the playoffs? We ran some simulations in Madden 25 to find out.
Sim 1: McCarthy Struggles With Turnovers As Vikings Miss Playoffs
In our first simulation, JJ McCarthy’s performance as QB1 was topsy-turvy, to put it mildly. Granted, the second-year quarterback out of Michigan completed 66% of his pass attempts and threw for a decent 34 touchdowns and 3,552 yards. Unfortunately, he also threw 23 interceptions on the year, indicating that when he wasn’t completing passes, he was basically giving possession away.
On the defensive side, Minnesota ranked 15th — towards the bottom of the top half — meaning they held up their end of the bargain more often than not. On top of that, Minnesota’s rushing game finished 4th in the NFL in yards, though they ranked second-to-last in touchdowns in that regard. Overall, the team finished 7-10.
Sim 2: McCarthy Balls Out And Makes A Playoff Run
Our second simulation boasted much better results for McCarthy as he straight balled out in his first season under center. McCarthy started every game, throwing for 38 touchdowns, 3,730 yards, and completing 70% of his passes. He also finished with a QB rating of 108.7 and averaged 219.4 yards per game.
On top of that, the Vikings had a much better season, finishing 10-7 and locking up a Wildcard spot. They even managed a 21-17 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card Round. Unfortunately, they were outmatched in the Divisional Round, losing to the rival Green Bay Packers 26-14. But overall, that’s a quality season.
Sim 3: McCarthy Has A Good Season But Is Unable To Lead The Vikings To The Playoffs
In our third and final simulation, McCarthy had another quality season. Again, he was mostly efficient, completing 71% of his passes. He also threw for a staggering 43 touchdowns and eclipsed 4,000 yards. The one blemish on an otherwise great season was 23 interceptions, but it was hardly enough to bring down a WB rating of 105.0.
Unfortunately for the Vikings as a whole, it didn’t go too well. The team finished 6-11, firmly outside of playoff contention. And I can’t explain it. Overall, Minnesota ranked as the 7th-best offense and 15th in defense. Unfortunately, the team suffered a late collapse, losing 5 of their last 6 games.
Overall Thoughts
So, is JJ McCarthy ready to take over as QB1 for the Vikings? According to most of our simulations in Madden 25, yes. In two of the three scenarios, McCarthy did enough on his end to win games, though he did struggle with turnovers here and there. So long as the team around him
