When Geoffrey Boycott announced in October that Duncan Fletcher had reached the "end of his shelf-life" as England coach, he was pilloried by almost every cricket player, commentator and fan. Two matches into the Ashes and suddenly his words look very prescient indeed.
Right now, Fletcher - this country's greatest ever cricket coach - has four months to save his job. After the three remaining Ashes Tests, England go into a one-day series against Australia and New Zealand, and then, in March and April, the World Cup. Given the shambolic state of England's one-day team, his chances of surviving until the summer look slim.
To these eyes, the situation looks reminiscent of the one that led to Nasser Hussain's resignation as England captain in 2003. "I feel we've come to a change of era," said Hussain, who felt that the team was no longer with him. The side that Fletcher has tried to cling on to so desperately in this series has disintegrated, and England are once again at a change of era. A new generation of players such as Monty Panesar, Sajid Mahmood, Jamie Dalrymple and Alastair Cook has come along, and they need a new coach to play under.
Attempting to defend the choice of Ashley Giles, James Anderson and Geraint Jones for the first two Tests, Fletcher pointed out that his decisions have always been made jointly with his captains. Yet, when you look at the team, it is impossible to see a single call that did not go the way Fletcher wanted it to. Michael Vaughan, clearly, had a relationship with his coach that brought the best out of the team. Flintoff does not.
There is no doubt that Fletcher has been the best coach that England have ever had. But, as Boycott suggested, "a coach runs out of new ideas, and the players get comfortable and complacent." The time has surely come to look for a man who will carry the team into the future. One candidate is Bob Woolmer, should he ever tire of the bureaucratic politicking of Pakistan. More likely perhaps, is the appointment of Peter Moores. He led Sussex to their first Championship title in 2003, and then took over from Rod Marsh at the England Academy. That makes him the ideal man to work with the national side's new generation.
If England do come back in this series, it will be the greatest rope-a-dope since Ali beat Foreman in the Rumble in the Jungle. For Ali to pull off that famous win, his trainer Angelo Dundee had loosened all the ropes before the bout, allowing his fighter the leeway to lean into them. In contrast, if England stage a similar comeback, it will be in spite of, not due to, Fletcher's strategies in the series so far.
