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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Mark Tran

Is Iran next on White House hit list?

With the US bogged down in an unpopular war in Iraq, prudence and good sense would dictate that the Bush administration refrain from any further foreign adventures. But the White House's bellicose noises at Iran have bloggers speculating that the president is now picking a fight with Iran.

In his televised address last week, Mr Bush raised the prospect of "hot pursuit" operations into Iran to chase insurgents. Comments from the vice-president Dick Cheney and the national security adviser Stephen Hadley on the US chat shows at the weekend kept up the rhetorical pressure on Tehran.

The sabre-rattling is not confined to words. The US is sending a second carrier group to the Gulf and US forces last week raided an Iranian consulate in Irbil, in northern Iraq, detaining five diplomats.

Heart of the Matter fears the administration is laying the ground for attack on Iran. He writes:

"If you believe Bush, Cheney, et al are decent, responsible, competent leaders, you'll trust their judgment and their motives on how far to push things with Iran. If you are cynical, you'll suspect that they're manoeuvring us into war with Iran - partly to retard Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, partly to distract from and dilute their failure in Iraq."

The News Blog wonders whether the neocons have considered the consequences of an attack on Iran in Iraq itself.

"Does the WH (White House) and Centcom really think that (Grand Ayatollah) Sistani and the Shia clerics will let bombs fall unhindered on Iran? Have they considered the consequences of Sistani saying that an American attack on Iran is a cause for all Iraqi shia to wage jihad?"

Writing in the Guardian, Dan Plesch, a research associate at the London School of Oriental and African Studies, comments that the neocons are still ascendant, judging from the preparations for a war in Iran.

"Having been given so much advice on what to do in Iraq - most notably by the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group - the president went with the recommendations of the neoconservative American Enterprise Institute. So much for the idea that the Iraq debacle marginalised the neocons."

Hullabaloo is not the first blogger to point to the complete disregard for public opinion from George Bush and Dick Cheney as they set their sights on Iran.

"These are two dangerous and selfish men who aren't running for office and so have no political constraints. Not even a 30% approval rating or 12% support for this decision has made them think twice. They are completely confident that history will vindicate them."

At this point allow this correspondent to indulge in some fantasy - in much the same way the Bush administration has in its foreign policy. If Mr Bush doesn't give a hoot about public opinion, perhaps a very public dressing down from Dad might do the trick. What one would give to see the first president Bush go on the Sunday news shows to say "Enough son, time to back off. You've done plently of damage for one presidency". But back to reality.

Mr Bush has still almost two years in office. That leaves him plenty of time for more foreign policy adventures, whether the American public - or the world - likes it or not.

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