China’s exports to the United States have plunged over 43% year-over-year in May, representing a $15 billion drop in trade value, yet at the same time, China’s total exports have increased 4.8%, according to official figures, despite the trade and tariff-related turbulence.
What Happened: On Monday, in a post on X, The Kobeissi Letter shared the latest trade data coming in official Chinese sources, hinting at the rerouting of goods to circumvent the current U.S. trade and tariff regime.
The post notes that exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) rose 15% year-over-year during the month, while shipments to the European Union climbed 12%. Meanwhile, there was a 30% spike in Chinese exports routed through Vietnam, and a similar 25% increase via Indonesia.
See Also: India Hits Back At US, Plans Retaliatory Tariffs at WTO
These figures have since fueled speculations that China is shifting its trade strategy, rerouting exports through regional partners to maintain global market access while reducing direct exposure to U.S. tariffs.
This comes amid growing efforts made by the U.S. Government to close potential backdoors for Chinese goods. The recent trade deal with Vietnam, which involved a 40% tariff on rerouted goods, is largely aimed at the same, and is thus being seen as a “proxy trade war” with China.
Why It Matters: Economists believe that President Donald Trump’s 40% tariff on rerouted goods from Vietnam could warrant backlash from China, with economist Rana Sajedi saying that it might be seen as a direct challenge, leading to targeted trade measures.
The U.S. has also been urging Vietnam to reduce its reliance on Chinese technologies that are used in the production of goods that are later exported.
Experts have long viewed tariffs as an opportunity for rerouting and transshipment, rather than a threat. “During 2018-19 when similar tariffs were put into effect, cargo was rerouted through Southeast Asia, Mexico and Europe, and a similar pattern is emerging now,” says Moritz Fuhrmann, the Co-CEO of MPC Container Ships ASA (OTC:MPZZF).
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