Is BBC1 heading for an ITV1-style ratings tumble? The loss of Neighbours would certainly give the channel a hefty shunt in that direction. And ITV1's FA Cup/England international snatch of the day won't help either.
It's a long time since Neighbours' headline grabbing late 80s peak, when Scott and Charlene's wedding attracted 18 million viewers. But the largely unsung daytime soap is still a key bulwark protecting BBC1's audience share from further erosion to multichannel rivals.
The lunchtime edition and early evening repeat each weekday both attract around 2.5 million viewers. But it's the audience share that's important: the evening show gets around 20%, the lunchtime repeat a whopping 40% - better than EastEnders most of the time these days.
Losing five hours of Neighbours per week would blow a sizable hole in BBC1's audience share. And have a knock-on effect on shows that follow the soap in the afternoon and early evening.
If Peter Fincham wants to know how bad it could be, he only need look at ITV1's loss of Home and Away to Channel Five in 2001. ITV's ratings decline since then has been caused by a number of calamities - many self inflicted - but the loss of Home and Away was probably the most significant. ITV1's 1pm-7pm weekday schedule has still not recovered.
The loss of FA Cup and England internationals from next summer will have less impact on BBC1, ratings wise. There any also those who believe ITV has overpaid for these football rights in a deal that doesn't stack up commercially.
That said, there's no doubt that 20 odd days of live FA Cup and international football a year will nudge ITV1's headline audience share in the right direction, and BBC1's the opposite way.
Particularly as much of this live football will be on Saturday and Sunday afternoons, when ITV1 is currently at its weakest and its stronger peaktime schedule will not be disrupted.
ITV is in the running along with Channel Five to take Neighbours. Maybe someone with access to better ratings stats than me can answer this one, but what's the chances of ITV1 overtaking BBC1 in audience share terms again within a couple of years?
