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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Ros Taylor

Is a rough estimate worse than none at all?

Tony Blair's refusal yesterday to put a figure on the number of illegal immigrants living in Britain - despite dogged questioning by Jeremy Paxman - was seized upon by Michael Howard this morning. The Tory leader, who was taking his turn to bask on the GMTV sofa, said the PM ought to have known the number because it was given to him by Home Office officials a few weeks ago. "I don't know why Mr Blair does not own up to that," Mr Howard said.

That estimate of half a million was reported by the Sunday Times last week. It was confirmed by Professor John Salt, the director of the Migration Research Unit at University College London, who said he had been consulted on the Home Office figures. If the estimate were to include spouses, dependants and those not in work, he added, it would be far higher.

But the minister responsible for immigration, Des Browne, cast doubt on Professor Salt's figure in a Radio 4 interview this morning. "He did himself a calculation, which he has put in the public domain. But he accepts himself that the methodology which he came up with has a significant degree of speculation about it. And in my view it doesn't apply to the circumstances of the UK," Mr Browne said. Until ID cards and computerised border controls were introduced, he added, it would be impossible to estimate accurately the number of illegal immigrants living in the country.

The Home Office may have had reservations about the methodology - but should we have been told the ballpark figure anyway?

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