One of eight independent politicians who hold the future of a divisive AFL stadium in their hands has firmly indicated he won't vote for the project.
The Tasmanian government will on Wednesday deliver its response to a planning commission report that recommended the $1.13 billion Macquarie Point waterfront stadium not go ahead.
It said the stadium, a condition of Tasmania entering the AFL and AFLW in 2028, was too big for the site and its cost outweighed the benefits.
Tasmania's Liberal government has remained steadfast in championing the stadium, which will need to pass a vote of parliament in November to become reality.
With the state's Labor opposition locking in its support, the stadium will get through the lower house.
But it faces a trickier passage in the upper house and needs the votes of three of eight independents to pass.
Mike Gaffney, who has spoken out against the stadium and called for the AFL deal to be renegotiated, said he didn't think anything in the government's response would change his mind.
"I'm not supportive of the project going ahead. We can't afford it, it's the wrong timing," Mr Gaffney, who represents the northwest seat of Mersey, said.
"The majority of the people from my end of the state, my electorate, are not supportive.
"It would be irresponsible for me as a member of the Legislative Council to actually support the project because it doesn't stack up."
Several upper house independents have been vocally anti-stadium, while some, including Ruth Forrest and Bec Thomas are awaiting more detailed costings before deciding.
Independent Tania Rattray was recently appointed by the Liberals as the upper house leader for government and in 2023 gave a speech supporting the stadium.
Mr Gaffney expects the upper house vote to be very close, but said he had a gut feel the stadium would get through.
The AFL, which recently unveiled Tasmania's draft and salary cap concessions, has maintained the team can't exist without the stadium.
The planning commission estimated the state government would need to accumulate $1 billion in debt for construction, rising to $1.8 billion over a decade.
Lower house independent Peter George has urged the government to release the "full cost" of the stadium before it reaches the parliamentary vote.
The initial estimated price tag of the stadium was $715 million but it has jumped several times.
"It beggars belief that the parliament is being asked to sign a blank cheque for a structure not yet fully designed," Mr George said.
Liberal minister Kerry Vincent said the government's response would be detailed and more information would be provided in coming weeks.
Despite supporting the project, Labor leader Josh Willie said the government needed to be upfront about the costs and address transport and noise issues raised in the report.
