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Tribune News Service
Tribune News Service
World
Peter Flanagan

Irish prime minister battles to keep power as exit poll shows dead heat

DUBLIN _ Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar's party is in contention to keep power, as an exit poll showed the nation's three biggest political parties in a virtual tie.

Varadkar's Fine Gael won 22.4% of first-preference votes in Saturday's election, according to the poll, state broadcaster RTE said. Sinn Fein won 22.3%, according to the Ipsos/MRBI poll of 5,000 voters, commissioned by RTE and the Irish Times.

Though Sinn Fein is in the race to be the biggest party by vote share, it didn't run nearly enough candidates to become the dominant force in Ireland's 160-seat parliament.

Fianna Fail, which oversaw the nation's international bailout in 2010, secured 22.2% in the poll, which has a margin of error of 1.3%.

Under Ireland's electoral system, about 44% is needed for an overall majority.

The result means Varadkar, 41, still has a fighting chance to stay in power, defying polls which put the party in third place before the vote. In the last days of the campaign, Fine Gael unleashed attacks on Fianna Fail's economic record and questioned the democratic credentials of Sinn Fein, long considered toxic by mainstream politicians for its links to the IRA terrorist group.

The Greens and Labour Party, which won a combined 12.5%, may become potential kingmakers. If Varadkar fails to put together a viable government, Fianna Fail, led by the former former foreign minister Micheal Martin, is likely to try to woo the two smaller parties, along with independent lawmakers.

If confirmed, the result also raises the possibility of a second election within months.

A Fine Gael or Fianna Fail-led government "would largely mean continuity from a financial and economic policy perspective," said Bert Colijn, an economist with ING Groep NV.

The traditional divide in Irish politics runs between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, separated by little except where they stood on the division of Ireland in 1921. Both share Brexit policies, broadly agree on economic and fiscal policy and vow to protect the nation's 12.5% corporate tax rate.

Before the election, both Varadkar and Martin ruled out pacts with Sinn Fein.

Counting begins at 9 a.m. on Sunday in Dublin, and could run into next week.

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