Ireland is voting on Saturday 8 February in an unpredictable general election which looks set to shake up the political consensus in the country.
As current Taoiseach Leo Varadkar hopes to retain power for his Fine Gael party, he is facing opposition from Fianna Fail, and an unexpected surge in popularity for Sinn Fein - who have overtaken both of the traditional two big parties in recent days.
The big issues of this campaign have been the crises in housing and health, much as Varadkar had hoped to be rewarded for his work on Brexit and the economy. In recent days, media focus has quickly shifted to Sinn Fein's fitness for office, as their popularity shows no signs of waning.
Follow our live blog of all the events in these crucial final days below:
Good morning.
I'm Ben Kelly and I'm going to be live-blogging the final day of campaigning today in the Irish general election. Polls open tomorrow morning at 7am, so leaders now have their last chance to pitch for votes today.
I'm Ben Kelly and I'm going to be live-blogging the final day of campaigning today in the Irish general election. Polls open tomorrow morning at 7am, so leaders now have their last chance to pitch for votes today.
Where do the polls stand?
The latest poll from Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times looked as follows:
Sinn Fein: 25%
The latest poll from Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times looked as follows:
Sinn Fein: 25%
Fianna Fail: 23%
Fine Gael: 20%
Ind/Other: 20%
Greens: 8%
Labour: 4%
In terms of leader favourability:
Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Fein): 41%
In terms of leader favourability:
Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Fein): 41%
Micheal Martin (Fianna Fail): 30%
Leo Varadkar (Fine Gael): 30%
Island voting
Citizens who live on the islands off Ireland's west coast in Donegal, Galway and Mayo, will be voting today, and then having their ballots brought back to the mainland to be counted over the weekend.
Citizens who live on the islands off Ireland's west coast in Donegal, Galway and Mayo, will be voting today, and then having their ballots brought back to the mainland to be counted over the weekend.
What is change?
As with countless elections, the big buzzword in Ireland this time around is change. The people want change. But what does change actually mean?
Well, it's almost certainly not Fine Gael, who they've had in power for 9 years now. It could be Fianna Fail, albeit that is a change back to a party they know all too well, and who are still not totally forgiven for the economic crash of a decade ago. Then there is Sinn Fein, who are indeed change, but probably too much of a change for the average, conservative Irish voter to give the reins to on their own.
The chances are that one of the big parties - likely Fianna Fail - will be in charge in the next coalition government. But can their partners in that administration (whoever they may be) bring in some of that desired fresh air?
The Irish want change, but they're more likely to get something that looks a bit same-old.
As with countless elections, the big buzzword in Ireland this time around is change. The people want change. But what does change actually mean?
Well, it's almost certainly not Fine Gael, who they've had in power for 9 years now. It could be Fianna Fail, albeit that is a change back to a party they know all too well, and who are still not totally forgiven for the economic crash of a decade ago. Then there is Sinn Fein, who are indeed change, but probably too much of a change for the average, conservative Irish voter to give the reins to on their own.
The chances are that one of the big parties - likely Fianna Fail - will be in charge in the next coalition government. But can their partners in that administration (whoever they may be) bring in some of that desired fresh air?
The Irish want change, but they're more likely to get something that looks a bit same-old.
Storm Ciara is coming
Storm Ciara is due to land in Ireland tomorrow, as voters go to the polls, which may have an adverse effect on turnout.
Met Eireann has said: “The weather will become extremely disturbed over the weekend and much of next week as the upper jet stream moves in over Ireland and the UK bringing extremely windy conditions possibly stormy at times.”
We'll be keeping an eye on the weather updates alongside the election campaign.
Here's our latest news report on Storm Ciara in the UK.
Storm Ciara is due to land in Ireland tomorrow, as voters go to the polls, which may have an adverse effect on turnout.
Met Eireann has said: “The weather will become extremely disturbed over the weekend and much of next week as the upper jet stream moves in over Ireland and the UK bringing extremely windy conditions possibly stormy at times.”
We'll be keeping an eye on the weather updates alongside the election campaign.
Here's our latest news report on Storm Ciara in the UK.
Fine Gael believe campaign has been 'a f***ing disaster'
Fine Gael are preparing for a disastrous election, with the loss of several key ministers, according to a report in the Irish Examiner today.
The paper quotes one minister from Leo Varadkar's government as saying, "We cannot win. The tide of change is too strong."
Fine Gael are preparing for a disastrous election, with the loss of several key ministers, according to a report in the Irish Examiner today.
The paper quotes one minister from Leo Varadkar's government as saying, "We cannot win. The tide of change is too strong."
Varadkar makes his final pitch
Leo Varadkar has started the day with a simple message to voters - but will it land?
Leo Varadkar has started the day with a simple message to voters - but will it land?
Can Sinn Fein really win this election?
Sinn Fein are currently ahead in the polls, but this success has taken even them by surprise. So much so, they are actually only running 42 candidates - meaning that even if they win them all, they'll be well short of the 80 seats needed for a majority.
Had Sinn Fein known their popularity would spike like this, they may have run more candidates. But after disappointing results in last year's local and European elections, they were taking a more measured approach. Under Ireland's system, running more candidates than you have a change of getting elected would split your vote.
Here's a thought: if this election fails to produce a government within a few weeks or months and we find ourselves heading back to the polls by spring time (a not unlikely scenario), Sinn Fein will probably be much better prepared to run more candidates, and capitalise on their new popularity.
Sinn Fein are currently ahead in the polls, but this success has taken even them by surprise. So much so, they are actually only running 42 candidates - meaning that even if they win them all, they'll be well short of the 80 seats needed for a majority.
Had Sinn Fein known their popularity would spike like this, they may have run more candidates. But after disappointing results in last year's local and European elections, they were taking a more measured approach. Under Ireland's system, running more candidates than you have a change of getting elected would split your vote.
Here's a thought: if this election fails to produce a government within a few weeks or months and we find ourselves heading back to the polls by spring time (a not unlikely scenario), Sinn Fein will probably be much better prepared to run more candidates, and capitalise on their new popularity.
Moratorium kicks in at 2pm
A broadcasting moratorium on Ireland's election will start at 2pm today, and run through to 10pm tomorrow night when polls close. This is just for broadcasting, and doesn't impact newspapers, online, or indeed canvassing.
A broadcasting moratorium on Ireland's election will start at 2pm today, and run through to 10pm tomorrow night when polls close. This is just for broadcasting, and doesn't impact newspapers, online, or indeed canvassing.
Who will be the next Taoiseach?
With the polls as they are, it's fairly likely that Fianna Fail could emerge from this election with the most seats, giving leader Micheal Martin a go at forming the next government. He's much more likely to be the next Taoiseach than Varadkar or McDonald.
This is Martin's third election as the Fianna Fail leader and as it stands, he is the only leader of the party who hasn't become Ireland's Taoiseach. So it's something of a last chance for the veteran Cork politician.
With the polls as they are, it's fairly likely that Fianna Fail could emerge from this election with the most seats, giving leader Micheal Martin a go at forming the next government. He's much more likely to be the next Taoiseach than Varadkar or McDonald.
This is Martin's third election as the Fianna Fail leader and as it stands, he is the only leader of the party who hasn't become Ireland's Taoiseach. So it's something of a last chance for the veteran Cork politician.
Storm Ciara update
RTE are forecasting that tomorrow will be very windy across Ireland, with strong, gusty, southerly winds, and heavy rain in the afternoon and evening. So take your brolly when you go to vote and drive safely!
RTE are forecasting that tomorrow will be very windy across Ireland, with strong, gusty, southerly winds, and heavy rain in the afternoon and evening. So take your brolly when you go to vote and drive safely!
Irish election explained
So what's this election all about? My handy video explainer should answer your questions:
So what's this election all about? My handy video explainer should answer your questions:
Vote for better?
The number one top trend on Twitter in Ireland right now is #voteforbetter - a tag which seems to be exclusively used by the Social Democrats. They are currently polling around 3%.
The number one top trend on Twitter in Ireland right now is #voteforbetter - a tag which seems to be exclusively used by the Social Democrats. They are currently polling around 3%.
Working class hero?
Fianna Fail leader is surely sending a subtle message with this photo of himself outside his childhood home in Cork, "where it all began."
Fianna Fail leader is surely sending a subtle message with this photo of himself outside his childhood home in Cork, "where it all began."
Thanks for following today.
Polls will open tomorrow morning in Ireland. Look out for the exit poll at 10pm on Saturday night, broadcast across RTE and online. We'll have more coverage over the weekend.
Polls will open tomorrow morning in Ireland. Look out for the exit poll at 10pm on Saturday night, broadcast across RTE and online. We'll have more coverage over the weekend.
