Summer temperatures in Ireland are forecast to rise by 3°C by the end of the century under high emissions.
The prediction is contained in a major new study by the Climate Impact Lab, a US research body which has spent years mapping the relationship between temperature, income, and mortality.
The researchers are predicting blistering heat waves across the globe in the coming decades as climate change accelerates.
But Ireland is expected to see one of the lowest rises in temperature across the century compared to other nations around the globe which could see rises of as high as 6°C.
Ireland’s average temperature for the months of June, July and August between 1986 and 2005 was 14°C - this is predicted to rise to 17°C by 2080.
Over the next twenty years, the study finds Ireland will see summer temperature rise by 1 °C if high emissions continue.
Under moderate emissions, Ireland will still experience the 1°C temperature change over the next twenty years but the country won’t see a further rise.
The new study from the Climate Impact Lab finds that the global death rate from rising temperatures may surpass the current death rate of all infectious diseases combined in 2100, with low-income countries disproportionately affected.
The Climate Impact Lab is one of the world’s biggest research consortiums of more than 30 climate scientists, economists, computational experts and researchers from leading US institutions and universities.
The researchers said this June has continued a streak of record hot temperatures ranking among the warmest months in history.
The study reported how a weather station in Death Valley, California, clocked a scorching 53.3°C in July, one of the hottest temperatures ever observed on Earth.
In the research, it is found that our nearest neighbours in Britain will see a 4°C rise in temperature by 2080 under high emissions while Spain will see a 5°C increase.
But parts of Russia and countries in Africa like Algeria and Middle Eastern countries like Iraq and Syria are predicted to see extreme rises of 6°C under high emissions.
This year, the researchers said officials from Delhi to Tokyo to Lagos, cities where past heat waves have claimed hundreds of lives, are bracing for dangerously hot periods.
The Climate Impact Lab study which has just been published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, finds that in a world with continued high fossil-fuel emissions, warmer temperatures will rank among the world’s most significant public health threats by the end of the century.
The study projects that climate change’s effect on temperatures could raise global mortality rates by 73 deaths per 100,000 people in 2100 under a continued high emissions scenario, compared to a world with no warming.
The study points out that this level is roughly equal to the current death rate for all infectious diseases—including tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, malaria, dengue, yellow fever, and diseases transmitted by ticks, mosquitos, and parasites which combined make up approximately 74 deaths per 100,000 globally.
In the worst-hit countries, including Ghana, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sudan, it finds climate change could be responsible for an additional 200 or more deaths per 100,000 by the end of the century.
Under a scenario of continued high emissions, the researchers estimate that climate change’s impact on mortality will cost the world roughly 3.2% of global economic output in 2100.
The results, which quantify mortality risk, provide what is termed a partial Social Cost of Carbon.
The researchers say this tool can be used by decision-makers to weigh the benefits of reducing emissions.
