The first rugby club established in Japan was in Yokohama in 1866, making it one of the oldest in the world. Its first captain was a Scotsman, George Hamilton, a former Rugby School pupil, and among its founders was the owner of one of Ireland’s largest estates. This Sunday the country’s second biggest city in terms of population will play host to a rather larger Celtic gathering in a match that will likely leave the losers playing for second place in the pool.
Ireland are regarded as the clear favourites to defeat Scotland having done so once this year at Murrayfield and shown in their final warm-up match, against Wales in Dublin, that they have recaptured the ruthless efficiency that New Zealand were unable to sabotage last November. Even though they are without a trio of injured Lions backs, Rob Kearney, Keith Earls and Robbie Henshaw, they brim with attacking and defensive menace behind and have a balance at forward to match that of any team in the tournament.
Ireland’s dip since defeating the All Blacks has pushed them out of the clutch of favourites for the World Cup, but they start the tournament as the leaders in the world rankings, and though they are the only one of the home unions to have never made it beyond the quarter-final stage, they have never looked better equipped for a World Cup campaign, a tournament where success has been built on strong defences.
Ireland’s rearguard, not to forget their capitulation at Twickenham last month on an afternoon when they missed some 30% of their tackles and misfired in the lineout, is as robust as any. Scotland, though, pose a threat and, as happened at Murrayfield in 2017, can expose a side based on structure, organisation and understanding by revelling in the chaotic and attacking in broken play when there are fractures in a defensive line.
Ireland: J Larmour, A Conway, G Ringrose, B Aki, J Stockdale, J Sexton, C Murray; C Healy, R Best (captain), T Furlong, I Henderson, J Ryan, P O'Mahony, J Van Der Flier, CJ Stander.
Replacements: N Scannell, D Kilcoyne, A Porter, T Beirne, J Conan, L McGrath, J Carty, C Farrell.
Scotland: A Dell, S McInally (captain), W Nel, G Gilchrist, J Gray, J Barclay, H Watson; Ryan Wilson, G Laidlaw, F Russell, S Maitland, S Johnson, D Taylor, T Seymour, S Hogg.
Replacements: F Brown, G Reid, S Berghan, S Cummings, B Thomson, A Price, C Harris, D Graham.
If Scotland hoped the conditions would suit them, so hot and humid that they have prepared for Sunday by coating the rugby balls they use in training with shampoo and conditioner, they are likely to be disappointed. The forecast is for rain, downgraded from the deluge anticipated earlier in the week to something lighter. Weather predicting here seems no more reliable than in Britain, but Ireland are more likely to be heartened by the colour of the sky above them. September is the wettest month in Yokohama and the one when the sun shines the least.
“Scotland like to take risks, calculated ones,” said the Ireland defence coach, Andy Farrell. “We need to expect the unexpected and try to get ahead of the game. They like to play at a high tempo and we need to create opportunities in defence to combat them.”
As Ireland contemplate taking something from their opponents’ manual by honing their counterattack, so Scotland will look to use defence as a means of attack. “We have to stand up and be counted,” said their scrum-half Greig Laidlaw, who partners Finn Russell at half-back with the head coach, Gregor Townsend, opting for experience to get off to the winning start that would provide him with insurance.
“Our defence has to stand up and it has to do so for 80 minutes,” said Laidlaw. “When we hold on to the ball, we cause problems and score tries, but we must also hold out teams. If we conceded soft tries, it puts massive, needless pressure on our attack. Defence is all about attitude: you have to get off the line and hit people. We did that when we played France at home recently but not when we played them, away. We then bashed Georgia a bit and we need that physicality again.”
Form over the last four years would suggest an Ireland victory in double figures, but a World Cup has its own ecosystem. Four years ago, Ireland were slated as a potential semi-finalist only to be overrun by Argentina. Scotland were expected to be among the also-rans but came the closest of the four home unions to the last four, denied by a late, controversial penalty awarded to Australia at Twickenham on a day when the alacrity with which they counterattacked looked to have taken them through.
“One thing I am confident about is that we will be tough to beat,” said the Ireland head coach, Joe Schmidt. “That comes from having a very collective effort, which you will see against Scotland. We have been holding back a few things and I am sure we will see something new from them. Maybe it will come down to the bounce of the ball.”
One of the Yokohama club’s first grounds was known as the Swamp. The International Stadium will be somewhat firmer, no matter how hard it rains. As the Celtic cousins meet for the effective prize of a place in the last eight, it will come down to who keeps their heads as much as their feet.
