The Ireland captain, Jonathan Sexton, has said what matters most is a victory against Italy, but unless it comes wrapped with a bonus point it will relegate their title aspirations to unlikely.
Ireland normally beat the Azzurri with something to spare in Dublin, winning by an average of almost 38 points in the past four Six Nations encounters, but if points difference comes to separate the champions from the runners-up they will need to emulate their 63-10 romp in Rome in 2017 before next week’s final round against France in Paris.
When Ireland lost tamely to England at Twickenham in the third round, their title challenge looked all but spent. Scotland’s surprise victory over France the following day, the final Test before lockdown, made it an open championship. Ireland will overtake the leaders England if they defeat Italy by more than 10 points, but victory with a try bonus would take them a point clear at the top, with France to come.
Ireland supporters who believe in fate will look to the 2014 campaign which their side won in Paris on the final day, pipping England on points difference. Their sequence of fixtures was the same as this year: Scotland and Wales at home, followed by Twickenham, then Italy and France. So far, the results have been the same.
Andy Farrell, Ireland’s head coach, has made seven changes, one positional, from the side that lost at Twickenham, partly through injuries and suspension. The wing Hugo Keenan and the flanker Will Connors will make their Test debuts, while Jacob Stockdale moves from wing to full-back and Tadhg Beirne, who watched the first three rounds at home as he recovered from injury, partners James Ryan in the second row.
As Italy have lost their past 25 matches in the Six Nations in a run stretching back to 2015 and have only once restricted Ireland’s winning margin in the tournament in Dublin to single figures, another chastening defeat beckons. Yet, as Real Madrid became the latest team to find out this week, sport without crowds spawns the unexpected, something that is not lost on Farrell.
“Italy have nothing to lose,” he said. “I like the style of rugby they want to play: they look to throw the ball around and they are a dangerous side. They will have a shout in how we play. We have a team that is adaptable and can play in a range of ways. We are looking for a performance that will take us into next week.”
Italy will have another say in the outcome at the top as they host England in Rome on the final weekend. Their last match was a 17-0 home defeat to Scotland and among the five players called into the starting lineup is the 20-year-old outside-half Paolo Garbisi, who in March did not have a professional contract and was in Italy’s Under-20 squad.
He joined Treviso in June and the following month was named in Italy’s training squad. He has earned his promotion after two Pro14 matches, and if his selection reflects the problems Italy have had at 10 since the retirement of Diego Domínguez, it also points to a brighter future with the under-20s having recent victories over Wales and Scotland. Jayden Hayward is the only starter who is over 30.
“We spoke about Garbisi in the last couple of years,” said Mike Catt, who became Ireland’s attack coach after Italy’s 2019 World Cup campaign. “He looked exceptionally impressive against Leinster recently and I love how he attacks the line aggressively, seeing space very quickly. He is going to be very good given time.”
Italy’s right to play in the Six Nations is questioned every year because of their poor record and Georgia’s ambition. “There are a number of young players coming through which can only be good for Italian rugby,” said the flanker Sebastian Negri, a veteran of the side at 26. “We know how tough our final two matches will be, but we have a number of strengths and intend to express ourselves, leaving it all out there.”
