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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Ben Quinn in Dublin and Chris Johnston

Ireland general election: Irish PM admits his coalition has been rejected – live

WATCH: A prospect of a ‘grand coalition’ is dividing opinion.

Closing Summary

• Ireland’s general election is on course to produce a hung parliament after voters punished the governing coalition after it implemented extensive austerity-led policies over the past five years in the wake of the country’s economic crash.
Fine Gael, the main party in the outgoing coalition, was set to lose up to 20 seats as voters wreaked revenge on it and its junior partner, the Irish Labour Party.

• Taoiseach Enda Kenny has conceded that the option of re-forming Ireland’s coalition government of his party is no longer available.
Ruling out stepping down – at least in the immediate term – he said that he had a responsibility as the head of government and would be considering options over the next 36 hours for providing a stable government for the country.

• The prospect of a “grand coalition” between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael – the two ostensibly christian democratic parties which have taken turns to lead successive Irish governments since independence – appears to be on the cards.
The leader of Fianna Fail, which surprised pundits by staging a recovery after voters punished it in 2011 after Ireland’s crash, said that his party would be “practical” and that it was essential to form a government that was “coherent”.

• Sinn Fein was on course to continue its march in the Republic of Ireland, with an expected increase in its representation in the parliament, the Dail, by around 50%.
However, the party looked set to miss out on key targets it had set for itself in some constituencies due to the apparent reluctance of many voters to give their second preference votes to the party that was once umbilically linked to the IRA.

• The former Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has said that the heavy losses now being suffered by the party are a consequence of necessary but unpopular decisions which it had to make after going into coalition five years ago.
However, the results also suggested firm evidence of leftward turn on the part of record numbers of the electorate who were opting for a range of left of centre candidates.

At this stage we are going to wrap up our liveblog coverage. Thanks for reading. You’ll find updated reports on our site tonight, along with rolling coverage tomorrow and onwards of the complex negotiations to form a new government.

So, is Fianna Fail really about to get into bed with its historic rival, Fine Gael? The Guardian’s Ireland correspondent, Henry McDonald, has some possible answers:

Fianna Fail is hostile to the idea of a ‘grand coalition’ with Fine Gael because they fear handing over the lead role in the opposition to Sinn Fein.

Party sources told The Guardian tonight that they would prefer to try and form a minority government working with a range non-party aligned independent deputies in the Dail.

Two leading figures re-elected on the Fianna Fail ticket, John McGuinness and Willie O’Dea, have already ruled out breaking the Irish Civil War divide and entering government with their old rival Fine Gael.

One possible alternative to that would be either try and cobble together a minority coalition or let Fine Gael try the same according to Fianna Fail sources. They believe the party could secure up to 46 seats and be within a whisker of matching Fine Gael’s overall result.

“It would be madness to hand over the mantle of opposition to Sinn Fein, “ one Fianna Fail source said pointing to fresh successes for the party on Saturday night including their candidate Jim O’Callaghan who is on course to win a seat in Dublin Bay South.

Such an administration would probably last less than a year but would postpone the possibility of a second general election within a matter of weeks.

Overall the Fianna Fail performance has been a stunning reversal of fortunes for a party that had only 21 seats in the last Dail. Aside from the heavy Fine Gael losses, the resurrection of Fianna Fail from its worst ever showing in 2011 is the story of this election.

Asked if he would be staying on as leader of his party at a time when many commentators suggest that the blame for its heavy defeat originates from his decision not to call an earlier election, Kenny replied:

No. I have a responsibility as Taoiseach and head of governemnt. While the results are coming in we still have a government and you are still in government unless you are voted out.

I have a responsibility as head of government to see what action needs to be taken to provide the country with a stable government in the future and I will considerer that very carefully over the next 36 hours.

Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny and his wife Fionnuala arrive at the count for his own constituency in Mayo, on February 27, 2016.
Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny and his wife Fionnuala arrive at the count for his own constituency in Mayo, on February 27, 2016. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

Kenny: Re-forming current coalition not possible

Taoiseach Enda Kenny has conceded that the option of re-forming Ireland’s coalition government of his party, Fine Gael, and the Irish Labour Party, is no longer available.

Speaking in the last 20 minutes from his own western constituency of Mayo, Kenny was evasive when repeatedly pressed on whether he would not consider entering into coalition with his party’s historic rival, Fianna Fail. Commentators increasingly believe that ‘Grand Coalition’ of the two is the only viable option now after a fractured election result.

“Clearly, my preference of Fine Gael and Labour cannot now be returned so obviously arising form that you have to look at all the counts …. to see what grouping and what parties are there,” he said in an interview with the Irish state broadcaster, RTE.

Sinn Fein now appears to be heading for its best-ever result in the Republic of Ireland, with a solid third-place finish, although it’s a performance that’s not without its disappointments for the party.

In the five-seat north west constituency of Donegal, an ambitious strategy of seeking to have three members of the Dail (Parliament) elected appears to have failed. The party has been fending off suggestions that the strategy could now even backfire at the cost of one of its existing seats there.

Updated

There’s intense pressure on Enda Kenny to indicate his thoughts on a possible link-up now between his party, Fine Gael, and Fianna Fail.

This response, tweeted by UTV Ireland’s Yvonne Redmond, doesn’t exactly rule out such an outcome:

There’s also this:

Updated

Ireland’s Taoiseach and leader of the Fine Gael Party, Enda Kenny, has been re-elected in his west coast Mayo constituency.

Kenny topped the poll with 13,318 votes, although it was down from the 17,472 first preference votes he received in 2011, a drop of over 4,000.

However, he now faces major decisions. After presiding over heavy losses for his party (many believe that they would have been averted if he had called the election in November) there may be pressure on him to make way for another face..

There are hints that we may be hearing from him in the next hour, perhaps to coincide with Ireland’s main evening nine o’clock news bulletin.

A couple of different images of him arriving at the count earlier are around, including this one:

.. and a close-up

Updated

In other sub-plots, Ireland continues to be a cold place for the Far Right.

A candidate from an anti-immigrant group calling itself Identity Ireland, who has been involved in launching an Irish offshoot of the Pegida movement, got less than 200 first preference votes

As well as Fianna Fail’s own recovery, Ireland’s Green Party has been staging a mini comeback.

After losing all its TDs in 2011, when it took a major hit as the junior partners in the government which was led by Fianna Fail, its deputy leader Catherine Martin has now been elected in the constituency of Dublin Rathdown.

An interesting figure in the crowd at the counting centre for Dublin constituencies - the British ambassador.

Increasingly, it appears that the British government has lost perhaps its closest ally in the European Union, Taoiseach Enda Kenny.

Ireland’s health minister has strongly hinted that the best course of action for his party, Fine Gael, may now to go into opposition:

Leo Varadkar told RTE, the state broadcaster, that the coalition’s larger partner may not even end up as the largest party in the country. If so, that spot would likely be taken by Fianna Fail, which has undertaken an extraordinary comeback after five years in the political wilderness.

He said:

It’s going to be difficult to form a government. It’s not entirely clear if Fine Gael will emerge as the largest party in terms of seats.... I don’t necessarily think that the obligation to form a government falls on us.

Asked if Fine Gael should now be prepared to think the previously unthinkable – going into coalition with its historic rival, Fianna Fail – he replied:

What happens now is that we have to count the votes and see what the possibilities are.

Ireland’s Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny (left) with Minster for Justice Frances Fitzgerald and Minister for Health Leo Varadkar following his party’s final press conference on February 24.
Ireland’s Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny (left) with Minster for Justice Frances Fitzgerald and Minister for Health Leo Varadkar following his party’s final press conference on February 24. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA

Updated

Ireland’s governing coalition has suffered perhaps its biggest casualy of the day so far now, with the loss of the seat held by Fine Gael MP Alan Shatter, the former Justice Minister.

The Guardian’s Henry McDonald reports:

The Irish headline writers will no doubt be using the word SHATTERED when referring the loss of a Fine Gael seat in one of its most prosperous redoubts - Dublin Rathdown.

They will be referring of course to Alan Shatter, former Fine Gael Justice Minister for a time in the last government, who has lost his seat in the constituency.

If there was ever an iconic loss in this very bad election for Fine Gael it is the failure of Shatter to get re-elected to the Dail. He lost his seat to the Green Party which is heading back to the Dail having reduced to zero seats in the 2011 election.

The Irish Taoiseach’s closest adviser has said Ireland would have to review its “political system” once the outcome of its most uncertain election in recent times is decided.

Admitting that the chance of another general election was “now very, very high,” Mark Mortell said:

The only word I can use right now is deep disappointment.

Asked about the prospect of an historic grand coalition between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael , he told the Press Association:

We’re each going to have to consider the situation and we’re going to have to talk to the Labour Party too.

What you’ve got here is an extraordinary situation. It is a massive fracturing of the political system.

It creates immediately a huge amount of volatility and if you look just across into Europe, and what’s happened in Spain and Portugal, this does mean we’re going to have a very, very interesting couple of weeks ahead of us and very, very demanding ones.

Amid talk of an Irish “grand coalition” between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, here’s some insight into the practice in Germany, where such arrangements are nothing new. Philip Oltermann, the Guardian’s Berlin Bureay Chief, writes:

There have been three grosse Koalitionen between the conservative Christian Democrats and centre-left Social Democrats at national level: 1966-1999, 2005-2009, and the current government, led by Angela Merkel, with the SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel as her deputy.

The problems with this kind of arrangement may be more apparent than the advantages: with a broad political consensus in the political centre, parliamentary debate is often stifled, opposition made toothless.

In Germany, this is particularly problematic for the left, which often has a mathematical majority of votes shared between the SPD, the Left Party and the Greens, but cannot make that majority count since the Social Democrats are hamstrung by their coalition treaty with the CDU.

The legalisation of gay marriage, effectively put on hold via the two parties’ coalition agreement, is just one area where a “grand coalition” can result in political stasis.

Yet at times of global turmoil grand coalitions can also be popular. After the 2013 general election in Germany, a sizeable majority in the polls said a coalition between the SPD and the CDU was their favourable outcome, and until the refugee crisis knocked the government’s boat in the last few months, ratings for the two governing parties were remarkably stable.

German Chancellor Merkel addresses a news conference after meeting at the International Trade Fair in Munich in February 2016.
German Chancellor Merkel addresses a news conference after meeting at the International Trade Fair in Munich in February 2016. Photograph: Michaela Rehle/Reuters

In Ireland you can be accused by high-powered public tribunals of corruption and using your ministerial influence to help rich, powerful friends but can still be re-elected to the national parliament.

Michael Lowry, the former Fine Gael communications minister, was accused in 20l 1 by a tribunal of providing “imparted substantive information” to Ireland’s richest man, Denis O’Brien, now the chief shareholder of Independent News and Media.

This information, the tribunal concluded, was of “significant value and assistance” to O’Brien in securing a state mobile-phone licence.

Fine Gael barred him from standing in his Tipperary base as a result. But tonight Lowry arrived at the count in his native county to a hero’s welcome and the guarantee that he will top the poll once more in this election.

There’s been an outbreak of prolonged singing at the Dublin count centre, where Sinn Fein’s vice president Mary Lou McDonald is now within touching distance of being relected.

Aaron Murtagh captured it earlier.

A taste of the new Irish politics to come? The airwaves are buzzing over claims that a candidate for Fine Gael recently called on voters to give their second preference votes to a Fianna Fail candidate.

Niche-sounding stuff when looked at from outside of Ireland, but it’s potentially very significant. It suggests that key figures in both parties - which have their origins in opposing sides in Ireland’s Civil War - had already started to bury the hatchet (or perhaps Lee Enfield).

Fionnan Sheahan, editor of the Irish Independent, is among those picking up on that:

Gerry Adams appeared to signal that Sinn Fein may be more flexible about entering a coalition than the party’s current position.

Party policy is not to enter an administration with Fianna Fail. However, The Guardian’s Henry McDonald reports that Adams said his party would have to examine the “lay of the land” once all the votes have been counted.

On his way into the Louth count where he is expected to top the poll Adams said his party policy was one he “happened to agree with.”

However the Sinn Fein President added:

If we do have a proposition to go into government we will go to our Ard Fheis (annual conference) and they will make that decision.

Given that the numbers of far left, Social Democrats and Independents combined with Sinn Fein wouldn’t be enough to elect an alternative government the party’s only possible partners would be Fianna Fail.

Fiach Kelly, political correspondent at the Irish Independent, tweets meanwhile:

Senior strategists in Fianna Fail, which appears to have staged an extraordinary recovery after being electorally decimated n 2011 over its stewardship of Ireland’s crisis-hit economy, believe they are close to edging out Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s Fine Gael as the largest party.

That’s according to Harry McGee, political correspondent at the Irish Times, who writes in the Irish Times that the party has increased its own estimates of seat gains since Saturday morning to above 40.

Under Ireland’s system of voting, which sees candidates being ranked in order of preference, the party is expected to get a seat bounce later today from being likely to pick up transferred votes from independent candidates who are eliminated in counting.

Campaign posters for Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin, top, and Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny in Cork.
Campaign posters for Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin, top, and Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny in Cork. Photograph: Chris Radburn/PA

Updated

In a European context, the Irish election results suggest that austerity “isn’t working”, according to journalist Peter Geoghegan, who has written an interesting piece for Politico Europe.

Barely a week has passed in the international press without Ireland seemingly being described as the “poster child for austerity in Europe,” with growth last year of 7 percent and falling unemployment appearing to put it in a different category from other stricken Eurozone states such as Greece and Portugal.

Geoghegan adds however:

But many Irish people have not felt any of the recovery’s effects. The exit polls Friday suggested more than a quarter felt their personal finances had deteriorated over the past year, with almost half saying their finances had stayed the same.

Parties opposed to austerity, explicitly or implicitly, have done very well. Despite effectively bankrupting the country during a decade and a half in power, Fianna Fail’s message of a more balanced recovery struck a chord with voters.

On the left, Sinn Fein recorded its best ever performance in the modern era; the newly-minted Social Democrats are on course to win at least half a dozen seats and the Greens and the cumbersomely titled socialist composite Anti-Austerity Alliance—People Before Profit look set to make gains.

Fianna Fail are increasingly confident tonight they might exceed five seats in Dublin with a possibility of even seven party TDs being elected in the Irish capital.

A party spokesperson said they are confident of five seats in Dublin Bay North, Dublin Mid West, Fingal, Dublin South West and Dublin West.

They are also pinning their hopes on extra gains in Dublin Bay South and Dublin Central, she added.

Reaching seven seats in Dublin is a sure sign of their turn in fortunes given that they gained only one seat in the 2011 meltdown Fianna Fail suffered post the Celtic Tiger.

Fianna Fail candidates Mary Fitzpatrick, for Dublin Central, and Paul McAuliffe arrive at the election count centre at the RDS in Dublin.
Fianna Fail candidates Mary Fitzpatrick, for Dublin Central, and Paul McAuliffe arrive at the election count centre at the RDS in Dublin. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA

Summary

• Ireland’s general election was on course on Saturday to produce a hung parliament after voters punished the coalition government which has implemented an austerity-heavy set of policies over the past five years.
Fine Gael, the main party in the outgoing coalition, looked set to lose up to 20 seats as voters wreaked revenge on its coalition government with Labour that brought in austerity measures.

• The prospect of a “grand coalition” between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael – the two ostensibly christian democratic parties which have taken turns to lead successive Irish governments since independence – appears to be on the cards.
The leader of Fianna Fail, which surprised pundits by staging a recovery after voters punished it in 2011 after Ireland’s crash, said that his party would be “practical” and that it was essential to form a government that was “coherent”.

• Sinn Fein was on course to continue its march in the Republic of Ireland, with an expected increase in its representation in the Dublin parliament, the Dail, by around 50%.
However, the party looked set to miss out on key targets it had set for itself in some constituencies due to the apparent reluctance of many voters to give their second preference votes to the party that was once umbilically linked to the IRA.

• The former Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has said that the heavy losses now being suffered by the party are a consequence of necessary but unpopular decisions which it had to make after going into coalition five years ago.
However, the results also suggested firm evidence of leftward turn on the part of record numbers of the electorate who were opting for a range of left of centre candidates.

Of course, away from the potential settling of age-old enmities arising from the legacy Ireland’s Civil War politics, the latest chapter in another age-old battle is being fought.

You can follow the latest from Ireland’s clash with England in the Six Nations here. It’s also bringing Ireland’s disparate political tribes together at count centres meanwhile.

In Dublin, a tannoy announcer has been updating us on the game’s score in between election results: “10-9 at Twickenham”

A few more snapshots of action from constituencies around the country

• Roisin Shortall, a former Labour minister who became one of the co-founders of the Social Democrats, a new left wing party, has been elected in the constituency of Dublin North West.

• The Labour Party’s woes were underlined when Alex White, communications minister in the coalition government, lost the race to hold his own Dublin seat.

• Leo Varadkar, tipped as a potential future leader of Fine Gael, has topped the poll in the constituency of Dublin West and was on course for re-election.

The dynasty of the former Taoiseach, Charles J Haughey, is back.

His son Sean lost his seat in the 2011 wipeout of Fianna Fail and was not even selected by his local party to run this year in the Dublin Bay North constituency.

But it seems Fianna Fail head office were onto something when they parachuted him into the area. Haughey junior is back and on course for a seat after winning 7,916 first preferences.

Even his opponents concede Sean Haughey is back in the Dail.

Sean Haughey, Fianna Fail candidate in the Dublin Bay North constituency.
Sean Haughey, Fianna Fail candidate in the Dublin Bay North constituency. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA
Charles Haughey, who served three terms as Ireland’s Taoiseach.
Charles Haughey, who served three terms as Ireland’s Taoiseach. Photograph: PA/EMPICS

Updated

Sinn Fein deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald at the Dublin City count centre on Saturday.
Sinn Fein deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald at the Dublin City count centre on Saturday. Photograph: Aidan Crawley/EPA

Sinn Féin deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald looks set to be elected in the Dublin Central after topping the poll there with 5,770 votes.

The constituency had been the political stronghold of former Fianna Fáil leader Bertie Ahern, but the party’s fall from grace saw it lose its two Dublin Central seats in the 2011 election.

RTE’s Justin McCarthy tweets a comment by Fine Gael’s Frances Fitzgerald, who is also also justice and equality minister.

Fianna Fail leader: government has to be coherent

Micheál Martin, the leader of Fianna Fail, has been speaking, although perhaps it was what he has not been saying that is most interesting.

Asked on RTE if his party would stand by a previous pledge of ruling out a coalition with its longterm rival, Fine Gael, if it was the smaller party, he replied: “I am very conscious that the people have voted against Fine Gael and Labour in government, so we have to take that on board.

“I think it’s going to take some time to work this out and it’s not going to be worked out tomorrow. I do think there will be a significant centre ground elected and they could be influential in terms of the type of government being formed.”

Martin, whose party appears to be undergoing an extraordinary recovery in support, added: “We have to be practical. Whatever develops has to be coherent.”

Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin.
Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA

Updated

Two results have come in for individuals who may be worth watching closely in terms of how the situation develops over the coming months and years.

Eoin Ó Broin, one of Sinn Fein’s rising young stars and a leftwing voice inside its ranks has been elected in the Dublin Mid-West constituency.

Also elected is Fine Gael’s Frances Fitzgerald. Although from an older generation than Ó Broin, she has been tipped as a possible replacement leader for Enda Kenny.

Updated

Staying with Lucinda Creighton, a former Fine Gael minister. She has strongly suggested that her old party should team up in Government with its long-term rival, Fianna Fail.

She told RTE:

I think there is a huge responsibility on the constitutional parties in this country to form a stable government.

I think there is a high respinsibilty on Fiana Fail and Fine Gael to do that.

She added:

I truly hope now that both parties will do the right thing for the country. The alternative would be quite worrying. The country has spoken and I think they should be respected and listened to.

Updated

Another one of the casualties of the election looks set to be one of Ireland’s newest parties, Renua Ireland, which was formed from defectors from Fine Gael and other parties and sought to blend a focus on free market economics with social conservatism.

Its leader, Lucinda Creighton, who was expelled from Fine Gael’s parliamentary party after voting against government abortion legislation , appears to be facing a real struggle to hold on to her Dublin seat.

She was not entirely optimistic after arriving at the counting centre in the last half hour, adding:

It’s going to be a very long weekend, but we’ll just have to see how it all pans out.

I’m just glad that we didn’t take the soft option. Renua Ireland is a party of the future and we are going to work towards that. It’s just a first step. It’s a benchmark.

Updated

Back to the Labour Party meltdown, and a senior government minister for the party has admitted that it is taking a “pasting”.

Asked if the junior partner in Ireland’s coalition government was looking at single figure digits in terms of its percentage support (down from 19.4% in 2011), Brendan Howlin told Irish radio station Newstalk:

It’s too early in the day to be doing that sort of analysis. Quite clearly we have a very fractured electorate.

It’s quite clear that the Labour party is after taking a pasting.

Updated

First TD elected to Ireland's 32nd Dail

The first member of Ireland’s 32nd Dail (Parliament) to be elected is Shane Ross, a sitting independent TD in the constituency of Dublin-Rathdown and outspoken newspaper columnist who had been tipped as to take on the role of kingmaker in post-election coalition talks.

With a new election or Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition now widely regarded as more likely, Ross is unlikely to take on such a role on this occasion. His strong showing once again underlines however the trend towards Irish voter support for independents.

This morning’s RTE exit poll suggested that as much as one third of the Irish electorate has voted for independent candidates or smaller parties.

Updated

Arriving at the count centre for Dublin constituencies, Sinn Fein’s vice president, Mary Lou McDonald, has described the possibility of a Fianna Fail and Fine Gael “grand coalition” as the “stuff of nightmares”.

It’s been something that she and others in Sinn Fein have been saying for some time now.

What was unsaid however was that it could also be the scenario that could allow Sinn Fein to go from being one of a number of opposition groups to being the opposition in a left-right drive, a major coup for a party that has focused on a political project of building a mass popular support base since the 1994 IRA ceasefire.

Former Irish Labour leader: "no regrets"

The former Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has said that the heavy losses now being suffered by the party are a consequence of necessary but unpopular decisions which it had to make after going into coalition five years ago.

He told RTE:

I think it started in 2011 when Fine Gael and Labour formed a government together and had to do very many unpopular things.

Today is not a good day for the [Labour] party but I think it is something that we can recover from.

Asked if he had any regrets, Gilmore said “no”, adding that Labour had gone into government at a moment of crisis for the country.

I think most people try to make decisions and get elected at the same time. But there are occasions when you have to make the choice between doing the right thing and the popular thing. Our country was broke ... We knew we had to take a risk.

The country was facing an existential crisis at that time. It had to be fixed and it was. We could have ended up with a second bailout. We could have faced a situation like Greece.

Gilmore, at one stage touted as future Taoiseach amid rocketing approval ratings for him and his party, resigned as leader in May 2014 after huge losses at the local and European elections.

The then Labour leader Eamon Gilmore at the party’s 2009 conference with Roisin Shorthall, who later left to co-found the left-wing Social Democrats party.
The then Labour leader Eamon Gilmore at the party’s 2009 conference with Roisin Shorthall, who later left to co-found the left-wing Social Democrats party. Photograph: Julien Behal/PA

Updated

To give you an idea of how complicated it is to determine the victors in the Irish election, let’s take the first completed count in Galway East as an example. There were 45,238 valid votes for the constituency and because there are three seats in play, the quota is set at 11,310 votes.

RTE reports that the Independent Alliance candidate Seán Canney came closest to reaching that level with 8,447 votes, followed by Fine Gael’s Ciaran Cannon at 7,123. Another Fine Gael candidate, Paul Connaughton, was next with 6,474, followed by Fianna Fáil’s Colm Keaveney at 5,436. Labour’s Lorraine Higgins got 4,531 first preferences and the Independent candidate Michael Fahy recorded 2,358 votes.

As no candidate reached the required quota on the first count, the two lowest-polling candidates – the Green Party’s Máiréad Ní Chróinín (769 votes) and Direct Democracy Ireland’s Aengus Melia (489) – have been excluded and their votes will now be redistributed.

Updated

Labour leader Joan Burton.
Labour leader Joan Burton. Photograph: Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters

It appears that the Labour party is facing a wipeout in the election, with leader and deputy prime minister Joan Burton facing a fierce battle to retain her seat.

Other Labour ministers including Alex White, Kathleen Lynch, Ged Nash and Kevin Humphreys are also in for a tense weekend, with counting expected to take days under Ireland’s complex voting system.

The fate of Fine Gael ministers Pascal Donohoe and James Reilly is also uncertain.

Forget the counting - the real drama in Arklow was a lost engagement ring, which somehow slipped off a voter’s finger into a ballot box on Friday. Fortunately it has now been found, as Irish Independent and the Herald reporter Alan O’Keeffe tweets:

Updated

One bookmaker confidently predicts:

Counting under way in Dundalk.
Counting under way in Dundalk. Photograph: Charles McQuillan/Getty Images

Mark Mortell, a Fine Gael strategist and Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s closest adviser, tells RTE that his party will end up with a similar number of seats to Fianna Fáil, but believes the prospects of another election are “very, very high”.

“It won’t be easy for the two big parties to take the big step and come together.”

He says Ireland will have to review its political system once the outcome of its most uncertain election in recent times is decided: “The only word I can use right now is deep disappointment.”

Updated

David Cameron tells farmers that Northern Ireland’s economy and farming industry are too closely linked to the EU to risk leaving.
David Cameron tells farmers that Northern Ireland’s economy and farming industry are too closely linked to the EU to risk leaving. Photograph: Liam McBurney/PA

Whatever government is eventually formed in Dublin it may eventually be dealing with neighbours who are no longer fellow EU members. A British exit from the union would fuel fears in the republic that the border with Northern Ireland could be bolstered, freedom of movement restricted and most crucially of all, north-south and east-west trade (between Ireland and Britain) damaged.

Parties across the Irish political spectrum have called on UK voters to choose the remain option in June’s referendum. And to bolster that vote, David Cameron is in Northern Ireland today, visiting the Bushmills whiskey distillery and meeting farmers. Indeed the prime minister reached out to Ulster’s farming community, which has relied heavily on EU subsidies since the UK entered Europe.

In a speech in Ahoghill – a North Antrim heartland of the unionist farming community – Cameron told farmers: “I would say it comes down to a very simple argument, which is do we want a greater United Kingdom inside the European Union with the safety, the strength and the prosperity, or do we want a great leap in the dark?”

He continued: “And I think particularly when it comes to farming you know what we have today – you know about the market access – you know about what we can do, and we could be putting all that at risk which I think would be very, very damaging for Britain’s farmers and for farmers here in Northern Ireland.”

Updated

Never one to miss a publicity opportunity, Respect party leader George Galloway has offered his two cents’ worth on the Irish elections:

In an earlier tweet the London mayoral candidate said: “Wish I’d stood :-)”

Updated

Appearing a little earlier here in Dublin, Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness dismissed suggestions that the party could have done better if its leader, Gerry Adams, had stepped aside.

The Guardian’s Henry McDonald adds:

Ireland’s former taoiseach Bertie Ahern had suggested on election day that Sinn Féin would have won an extra ten seats without being led by Adams, a figure which many in the Republic of Ireland feel is a reminder of the days of the IRA’s violent campaign.

McGuinness, who was his key partner in the Irish peace process, dismissed any talk that Adams might step down as leader following this contest however.

He said “I don’t know how you can say that” after fielding questions about the generation of leaders like him and Adams.

Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister said there would be a “dramatic increase” in the Sinn Féin share of the vote compared to the 9.9% they gained in the 2011 general election.

Updated

It looks like one of the mini-success stories of this election could be a new party, the Social Democrats, which contains a number of members who broke away from the Labour Party over its support for the government’s austerity platform.

One of its MPs, Róisín Shortall was optimistic:

Updated

Here’s a brief guide to Ireland’s proportional representation voting system (via the Associated Press):

Voters get one ballot but can vote for as many listed candidates as they like in order of preference.

You can vote for every single politician with a hand-written No 1, 2, 3 and so on. In Dublin South-West, voters could pick from 1 to 21.

The preferential voting means ballots must be counted and recounted in multiple rounds.

At the end of each round, another winner on top is declared or, if nobody new has crossed that mathematical finish line, the weakest loser is eliminated.

Ballots that awarded the loser a No 1 are recounted, with lower-preference votes transferred to any candidates still in contention.

The system is designed to ensure that small parties and independents get a better chance to win a seat. The goal is to fill all 158 seats in Dáil Éireann, the key lower house of parliament that elects the government.

Clear on that? Good ...

Updated

The ‘big beasts’ are starting to arrive at Dublin’s election count centre, including Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness, the deputy first minister of Northern Ireland.

Updated

I’ve just been speaking to a former senior advisor to Fianna Fáil in government, who says that it appears to have been a good election for his party, but freely admits that a “dynamic change” is under way in Irish politics.

“There certainly would seem to be a shift to the left,” said Derek Mooney. “We are seeing the clear emergence of a left but it’s not hard left versus right politics. There is a dynamic change away from the old party blocks.

“Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are now fishing out of the same pond and it’s increasingly a small one.”

Have a listen:

Updated

Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton has ruled out a second election – leaving us to assume that there will be a concerted attempt to reach a deal on a new government.

Whether that is between the two big beasts of Irish politics, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, remains to be seen

The Guardian’s Henry McDonald asked Bruton if another election was on the cards, given the messy outcome of this one, to which he replied tersely but firmly: “No, I don’t think so.”

Updated

The casualties are beginning to emerge. After a collapse of his support in the Dublin south central constituency, Labour party TD, Eric Byrne, has resigned himself to defeat.

It’s an early blow to Labour, which had been widely tipped to be facing a drubbing of the sort which Britain’s Liberal Democrats faced in the UK general election, after being the junior partner in a coalition which implemented an austerity-driven agenda.

Other Labour TDs who appear to be in early trouble include Arthur Spring in Kerry, son of a former leader of the party.

Updated

New to Irish politics? Here’s a handy guide to what have been the main parties in recent times (not including relatively new entrants such as the Social Democrats and Renua, a new right of centre force):

Fine Gael: A party born out of loyalty to Irish independence military leader Michael Collins, who was assassinated by republican diehards for accepting the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty that partitioned Ireland. Now centre-right in economic policy, strongly pro-European and increasingly socially liberal. Won 76 seats in the 2011 general election: an all-time high.

Fianna Fáil: Founded by Michael Collins’s great civil war rival, Éamon de Valera, the party ultimately accepted the Anglo-Irish settlement and became the most successful political force in post-independence Irish history. Economically centrist, often populist, it was blamed for the collapse of the Celtic Tiger amid allegations that the party was too close to property speculators and bankers. In the last election it crashed to just 20 seats.

Sinn Féin: The party once known around the world as the political wing of the Provisional IRA has benefited enormously from the Northern Ireland peace process. Led by Gerry Adams, it had 14 seats in the last Dáil and is expected to build on that number this time around, positioning itself as a party of protest against austerity cuts.

Labour: The oldest party in the state and rooted in the trade unions, Labour faces the possibility of electoral meltdown akin to the Liberal Democrat wipeout in the UK last year. Labour was at the vanguard of social change as junior partner in the current government, championing the gay marriage referendum, but it also took flak over the coalition’s unpopular tax rises and public spending cuts.

Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit: Both parties are rooted in the far-left Socialist party (former Militant Tendency) and the Socialist Workers party. They draw support, like Sinn Féin, from urban working-class areas where there is widespread discontent over austerity.

Updated

A little bit of gossip for you now from the Fianna Fáil camp: It appears that the party is weighing up two options, according to sources who have been speaking to my colleague, Henry McDonald. Those options are:

  • Insisting on a rotating taoiseach in any historic “grand coalition” with Fine Gael.
  • Allowing for a second election, which would replicate what has happened, but which would then give them a stronger mandate to enter government.

Take the above with a pinch of salt. Everyone spins, but it’s an insight into Fianna Fáil’s possible thinking at this point, after a surprisingly good election for the party, which many had written off after it was decimated five years ago.

Here’s a reminder of that dark day for the party, which translates into English as The Soldiers of Destiny:

Updated

Here are some scenes from the counting centre in Dublin. There’s a lack of “big beast” politicians just yet, although activists are bedding in.

Updated

Enda Kenny’s biographer has been summing up his prospects of remaining as Ireland’s prime minister after all the post-election horse-trading.

John Downing writes in the Irish Independent:

At the very best, Mr Kenny will have to find and deploy considerable political wizardry if he is going to stay on as anchor tenant in Government Buildings.

But a boost for Fianna Fáil also means pressure for the party to make groundbreaking decisions in a likely hung Dáil. It also opens intriguing possibilities for other coalition options.

Downing’s book, written after Fine Gael’s 2011 electoral triumph, is titled The Unlikely Taoiseach. How much more “unlikely” will it be that Kenny holds the centre of power given his party’s losses this time around?

Updated

One of the many stories from Ireland’s post-economic crisis elections has been the rise of support for leftwing groupings and individual campaigners.

It’s a trend which appears to be alive and well. In the five-seat north Dublin constituency of Fingal for example, early indications are that one such politician, Clare Daly, is taking an early lead.

In the south Dublin constituency of Dún Laoghaire, also a five-seater, the high-profile leftwing TD Richard Boyd Barrett is putting up a fight to hold on to the seat which he won at the last election.

Barrett, a leading voice in the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit grouping, is on 14.7% in early counting, but could yet be squeezed out later on as transfers between other parties take effect.

Updated

Were Sinn Féin hurt by recent coverage the carried echoes of the “bad old days”? There have been stories about a former IRA man who is being sought for extradition in Spain, and the sentencing last week of a former IRA commander to 18 months in jail for tax evasion.

One of the party’s TDs (member of parliament), Jonathan O’Brien, has insisted that such issues did not really come up on the doors during the campaign.

He told RTE:

I can only really speak for Cork North-Central, but people were engaged more in issues like homelessness and the economy. Maybe they do affect people’s voting … but I can’t say.

Another one of the party’s senior leaders, Pearse Doherty, suggested that it was possible that the party could double its support:

These last seats are going to come down to a handful of votes in a handful of constituencies and we will be fighting for them.

Updated

Some predictability at last perhaps, via the Twitter feed of Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams.

Not quite to everyone’s taste, perhaps, but there you go:

Updated

Ireland is experiencing a “post traumatic election”, according to political commentator Noel Whelan, a former advisor to Fianna Fáil.

The last election came in the midst of Ireland’s economic collapse, which effectively saw it surrender sovereignty to the “troika” of the European commission, ECB and IMF. The impact of that economic turmoil continues to reverberate.

Whelan said on RTE:

Even if people are feeling a bit better, they are deeply seared by the trauma they have been through. People say: ‘It’s the economy stupid’.

But ‘It’s society stupid’. People are hurting and by god they are letting everybody know about it at the ballot box.

Of course, three years ago Ireland became the first stricken eurozone state to exit its rescue programme. That does not appear to have translated into an election win for the government, which campaigned with the slogan “keep the recovery going”.

In the last few weeks of the campaign, Enda Kenny appeared to have made a pivotal error when he called some people in his hometown “whingers”. He later claimed the barb was directed at political opponents.

Updated

It’s worth recording that the UK’s prime minister, David Cameron, is in Northern Ireland today as part of his campaign for British voters to remain in the EU in the upcoming referendum.

As it happens, many commentators in Ireland regard the UK’s referendum as being potentially more important for the long-term future of Ireland than the Irish general election. The UK still accounts for about 15% of Irish goods exports.

Will Cameron be following today’s results? It’s very likely, given that Enda Kenny was one of his closest allies during his negotiations in Brussels earlier this month.

Indeed, some feel that Cameron came close to endorsing Kenny’s government when he told the Irish Independent:

I wouldn’t give advice, but that last part sounded to me like a long-term economic plan that is working for people in the republic.

On the basis of exit polls and very early results, it looks like most Irish voters have taken a different view.

Updated

An early frontrunner in the constituency of Dublin Central is Sinn Féin’s vice-president, Mary Lou McDonald, who is on 22% of the vote after the opening of 16% of ballot boxes.

Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams and the part’s vice president, Mary Lou McDonald , speak at a press conference on February 21.
Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams and the party’s vice-president, Mary Lou McDonald. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA

Updated

A prediction by Fine Gael’s general secretary, Tom Curran, who says that the party may lose up to 20 seats and fall well below 50 if the exit polls are correct.

Let’s zero in on one of the constituencies now, that of the deputy prime minister and Labour leader, Joan Burton, who was expected to face a struggle to hold on to her seat.

With 10% of ballot boxes open in the Dublin West constituency, she appears to be holding up for now:

  • Joan Burton (Labour) 18%
  • Leo Varadkar (Fine Gael) 18%
  • Jack Chambers (Fianna Fáil) 17%
  • Ruth Coppinger (AAA) 13%
  • Paul Donnelly (Sinn Féin) 12%
  • Catherine Noone (Fine Gael) 6%
  • David McGuinness (independent) 5%

Updated

Is there an appetite for another election? Recent polling suggests it might be the most favoured option of the electorate.

As Dan O’Brien, the Dublin-based chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs, tweets:

Updated

Both of Ireland’s coalition parties will be deeply disappointed by the results of last night’s exit poll from the Irish Times (and also with this morning’s one from RTE), writes the veteran Irish Times political commentator, Stephen Collins.

He adds:

By contrast, Fianna Fáil has exceeded the expectations it had at the start of the campaign. Party leader Micheál Martin had the best campaign of any party leader and his message of fairness resonated with a wide swath of the electorate.

That Fianna Fáil has narrowed the gap with Fine Gael to just over three percentage points just five years after the greatest disaster in the party’s history indicates how resilient it is.

Updated

Some more analysis now of the backdrop to today’s results, courtesy of the Guardian’s Henry McDonald:

The outgoing Fine Gael-Labour coalition was elected back in 2011 on a landslide with the biggest ever parliamentary majority since Ireland gained independence from Britain.

After three successive terms for Fianna Fáil, the republic’s electorate appeared to have ushered in a political revolution five years ago.

Anger over the way Fianna Fáil had been seen to mismanage the economy and lose economic sovereignty resulted in Fine Gael returning with 76 seats, while Labour came back into the Dáil with 33.

So how come five years on the two parties whose lead looked unassailable at the start of this government have failed so miserably to secure a second term?

Part of the reason lies in the austerity medicine administered by the Fine Gael-Labour coalition in its early years. After the financial crash and the arrival of the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank to macro-manage Irish economic affairs, the cupboard was almost bare.

The new government had to plug a multibillion-euro gap in the nation’s finances, and did so by raising taxes and cutting public spending. Like a certain female prime minister across the Irish Sea in the 1980s, Fine Gael might argue that the medicine worked and no matter how unpleasant it was to swallow, it has turned the economy around.

Ireland is enjoying 7% growth and more than 120,000 jobs have been created in the government’s lifetime. However, many Irish voters clearly thought that the treatment was not only too harsh – cuts, taxes, new water charges – but also unfair.

They saw the bankers blamed for over-borrowing and equally rapacious property speculators avoiding jail, while those living on low incomes who could not or would not pay for water charges being imprisoned.

For much of the electorate, the distribution of the pain as Ireland bowed to IMF-ECB demands and drove down the national debt was loaded in the wrong direction.

Hence the widely spread protest vote for a disparate range of parties, including Sinn Féin, leftwing groupings and non-aligned, local issue independents.

However, the greatest paradox of this election, if the two exit polls accurately reflect the first preference voting patterns, is the comeback of Fianna Fáil.

There’s going to be a short period now of radio silence while I locate a good vantage point inside the RDS conference centre. Stay tuned …

Updated

New details are being released from RTE’s exit polling, this time providing some detail on how Irish voters are casting their second-preference votes.

A particular trend being noted by commentators is how Sinn Féin support in second preferences is significantly down on their support from first preferences, which the exit polls had put at 16%.

One takeaway: the party might yet be struggling to throw off a toxicity in the eyes of many voters in the Republic of Ireland after years of strife in Northern Ireland.

Updated

… and they’re off:

Updated

Vote counters are preparing to open the first ballot boxes. Here are some of the scenes inside Dublin’s RDS conference centre, where a number of constituencies will be counted:

Updated

Discussing the exit polls, someone on Irish radio has already mouthed that WB Yeats line: “A terrible beauty is born.”

We’ll see over the course of today (and tomorrow, and potentially next week …), but for now, a former government minister is among those suggesting that the previously unthinkable really might be on the cards

“It seems to me know that the only working arrangement is one between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael,” says Michael McDowell, a former justice minister and member of now-defunct right-of-centre party, the Progressive Democrats. “If that is what is coming that is the international norm.”

Updated

More now on possible scenarios. If the exit polls are accurate, and with Ireland’s unpredictable PR election system based on multi-seat constituencies, a number of different outcomes are entirely possible.

Here’s the Guardian’s Ireland correspondent, Henry McDonald:

The entire election result is not over until the middle of next week. Irish elections are notorious for recounts, which, thanks to a Dublin supreme court ruling, are now enshrined in law, ie everyone has the constitutional right to demand one.

Scenario one

  • The Dáil (Irish parliament) meets in early March but is unable to elect a Taoiseach paving the way for another election soon.
  • The annual St Patrick’s Day visit by the Irish premier is cancelled because there is no taoiseach. Maybe President Higgins will have to fill the gap.
  • An “interim” taoiseach will have to be chosen to take the salute from the podium as thousands march past the General Post Office on Easter Sunday 2016, during the national commemoration marking the centenary of the Easter Rising against British rule.
  • After Easter plans are put in place to hold a second general election.

Scenario two

  • A “grand coalition” between old rivals Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, which would in effect bury the politics of the Irish civil war, at long last uniting in government the two parties founded by Michael Collins and Éamon de Valera.
Éamon De Valera, founder of Fianna Fáil and former Irish taoiseach.
Éamon De Valera, founder of Fianna Fáil and former Irish taoiseach. Photograph: Hulton Getty

Updated

So what happens now? Well, much chatter is already focusing on the possibility of a grand coalition between Ireland’s two centrist, sometimes right-of-centre, Christian democratic parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Don’t be quick to assume that will happen though, for a range of reasons. Perhaps it may take a slightly different form:

The prospect of Sinn Féin becoming the main opposition party is also likely to be a major brake on Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael burying their long-held differences.

… also, while ideological differences between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael may be wafer-thin at the moment, there’s also the element of good old-fashioned personal enmity … and trust.

Here’s an FG minister, Leo Varadkar, speaking to the Guardian recently on the question of historical differences dating back to Ireland’s civil war being buried:

It’s not about the civil war, the civil war is over a long time and I don’t particularly come from a traditional Fine Gael background.

It’s a mistake to think its still about the civil war because it’s actually about trust and we just don’t trust them [Fianna Fáil].

Updated

Here are the results of the exit poll from RTE, published this morning:

  • Fine Gael on 24.8%
  • Fianna Fáil on 21.1%
  • Sinn Féin on 16%
  • Labour on 7.1%
  • Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit on 4.7%
  • Greens on 3.5%
  • Social Democrats on 3.7%
  • Green Party 3.6%
  • Renua on 2.4%
  • Others on 2.6%

Updated

So we have two major exit polls to work from for now. An MRBI poll for the Irish Times published on Friday night found:

  • Fine Gael on 26.1%
  • Fianna Fáil on 22.9%
  • Labour on 7.8%
  • Sinn Féin on 14.9%
  • Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit on 3.6%
  • Greens on 3.5%
  • Social Democrats on 2.8%
  • Renua on 2.6%
  • Others on 28.3%.

Be warned, however. The above is based on first-preference votes cast using Ireland’s somewhat unusual voting process, a form of proportional representation known as the single transferable vote system. It might be complex, but if anything, it can generate drama of the highest order on a day like today.

For those coming fresh to this election, you might want to read this briefing by Henry McDonald:

Updated

Exit polls: coalition government support slumps

After waging a campaign for re-election on the basis of their stewardship of an economy shattered by an economic collapse, exit polls suggest that Ireland’s governing coalition has suffered a significant loss in support.

The Guardian’s Ireland correspondent, Henry McDonald, reports on how voters may be asked to return to the polls much sooner than expected:

Ireland may be facing a second general election as an exit poll from one of the country’s most reputed media organisations has found that the Fine Gael-Labour coalition has fallen far short of a working majority.

An Irish Times/MRBI exit poll released on Friday night found the ruling Fine Gael party is less than four percentage points ahead of the main opposition force, Fianna Fáil.

According to the results of the poll, taken among a sample of more than 5,000 voters outside 200 polling stations across the Republic on Friday, Fine Gael has 26.1% of first preference votes.

The exit poll shows a considerable gain for Fianna Fáil, on 22.9%. Sinn Féin meanwhile has gained four percentage points from its 10% performance in the 2011 general election.

Labour – Fine Gael’s partners in government for the last five years – are on 7.8%, the exit poll suggests.

Updated

Opening summary

Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s liveblog on the outcome of Ireland’s general election from here in Dublin.

Already, early indications are that Ireland and Irish politics have entered uncharted territory with two major exit polls showing a major slump in support for the outgoing coalition partners – the larger right of centre party, Fine Gael, and its left of centre partner, Labour.

Gains have been made by made by Fianna Fáil, the party which had led the government at the time of Ireland’s 2008 economic crash and which has been rebuilding itself, as well as Sinn Féin, which has been hoping to make a major breakthrough in the republic on the back of an anti-austerity platform.

However, the building blocks for a new government are scattered, with the country predicted to be heading for a hung parliament.

As with other recent elections, the big winners appear to be a collection of independents and smaller parties. That’s on the basis of two exit polls, one for the Irish Times and one for the state broadcaster RTE.

I’m Ben Quinn and I’ll be bringing you updates as results come in throughout the day from around the country. With me will be the Guardian’s Ireland correspondent, Henry McDonald, who will be filing reports and analysis. You can follow us on Twitter at @BenQuinn75 and @henry_mcdonald.

Updated

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