Ireland is expected to reach a peak population of nearly six million this century in the year 2057, according to a major global study.
But the new research predicts a dramatic decline in worldwide fertility due to modern contraception and the education of women and young girls which is expected to see global population start to shrink by 2100.
The research, which has just been published in the Lancet, forecasts the world population will peak in 2064 at around 9.7 billion people and fall to 8.8 billion by the century’s end.
The study carried out by University of Washington researchers predicted 23 countries will see populations shrink by more than 50%, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain.
In 2017, Ireland’s population was 4.8 million but this is projected to rise to 5.4 million in 2100 – although the nation’s population is forecasted to reach a pinnacle of 5.7 million in 2057.
The global Total Fertility Rate which is the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime, is predicted to steadily decline, from 2.37% in 2017 to 1.66% in 2100 which the study notes is well below the minimum rate 2.1% rate considered necessary to maintain population numbers at replacement level.
Rates are predicted to fall to around 1.2% in Italy which is projected to see its population halve from 60 million to 30 million and as low as 1.17% in Poland.
While the Irish rate was 2.37% in 2017, it is predicted to drop to 1.68% by 2100
Interesting, Ireland is not currently among the top-ranking 30 economies in the world by comparing total GDP in 2017 but the nation is predicted to move up to 29th position by 2050 and 24th position by 2100.
Our nearest neighbours in the UK are forecast to see their population rise from 66 million to 71 million and rank 7th in the world power rankings when it comes to GDP in 2100 with the USA remaining in the No. 1 spot by the end of the century.
China is forecast to see their population plummet from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100, the USA will see a small rise from 325 million to 336 million by the century end while India will become the most populous country in the world despite dropping from 1.38billion in 2017 to 1.09billion in 2100.
By 2100, the study, which was part-funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, finds projected fertility rates in 183 of 195 countries will not be high enough to maintain their current populations without liberal immigration policies.
Researchers predict 23 countries will see populations shrink by more than 50%, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain.
Dramatic declines in working age-populations are predicted in countries such as India and China, which will hamper economic growth and lead to shifts in global powers.
The study suggests liberal immigration policies could help maintain population size and economic growth even as fertility falls.
But the authors warn response to population decline must not compromise progress on women’s freedom and reproductive rights.
The researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington used modelling research from data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 to project future global, regional, and national population.
Using novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, and migration, it was estimated that the average number of children a woman delivers over her lifetime in 183 of 195 countries will be below replacement level of 2.1 births per woman by the year 2100.
The new population forecasts contrast to projections of ‘continuing global growth’ by the United Nations Population Division.
It highlights the huge challenges to economic growth of a shrinking workforce, the high burden on health and social support systems of an ageing population, and the impact on global power linked to shifts in world population.
The new study also predicts huge shifts in the global age structure, with an estimated 2.37 billion individuals over 65 years globally in 2100, compared with 1.7 billion under 20 years.
“Continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population”, says IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray, who led the research.
“This study provides governments of all countries an opportunity to start rethinking their policies on migration, workforces and economic development to address the challenges presented by demographic change.”
IHME Professor Stein Emil Vollset, first author of the paper, added: “The societal, economic, and geopolitical power implications of our predictions are substantial.
“In particular, our findings suggest that the decline in the numbers of working-age adults alone will reduce GDP growth rates that could result in major shifts in global economic power by the century’s end.
“Responding to population decline is likely to become an overriding policy concern in many nations, but must not compromise efforts to enhance women’s reproductive health or progress on women’s rights.”
Dr Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief, The Lancet, called the study “ important research”.
He said: “The 21st century will see a revolution in the story of our human civilisation.
“Africa and the Arab World will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will recede in their influence.
“By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US the dominant powers. This will truly be a new world, one we should be preparing for today.”
