For the midterm elections less than three weeks away, "it's the war, stupid", rather than "it's the economy, stupid".
If the Republicans could fight the midterms on economic grounds alone, they would be home and dry. Company profits are surging, the Dow Jones has broken through 12,000 for the first time and Americans are showing little pain from slowing growth.
But everything comes back to Iraq, which has turned into the millstone around the Republican neck. If the polls turn out to be right, the Democrats are set to regain control of the House - and perhaps of the Senate.
The Foley sex scandal has not helped, but it is mainly Iraq that has put the kibosh on the Republicans. In a telling sign, the Republicans are already starting to blame each other for the expected defeat.
If the Democrats do reverse the House gains of the 1994 "Republican revolution", what then on Iraq? One Democratic blogger, Bob Fertik, takes the bull by the horns and has a long list of what the Democrats' agenda should be, including phased withdrawal beginning immediately.
But Nikolas Gvosdev at the Washington Realist blog expects little change in foreign policy from the Dems. He argues that they have failed to present a real alternative on foreign policy and have not come up with a unified position on Iraq, despite a few straws in the wind.
Similarly, David Ignatius at the Real Clear Politics thinks the Democrats will have a tough time getting their act together on Iraq, although he does credit Senator Joseph Biden for seriously grappling with the issue. (Mr Biden is advocating "federalism plus'' that will devolve power to the Shia, Sunni and Kurdish regions).
The Bush plan is for an open-ended commitment (130,000-140,000 US troops) until the Iraqi armed forces are strong enough and democracy takes hold, a strategy whose appeal with the American public dims by the day.
The call from John Murtha, a decorated Vietnam war veteran, last November for an immediate withdrawal, which can be seen as the start of the unravelling of US policy on Iraq, does not have complete backing even from among his fellow Democrats.
Eliot Cohen in today's Wall Street Journal usefully runs through a list of options, including simple withdrawal, doubling the US presence, or a military coup quietly endorsed by the US. All, he says, are wretched to contemplate or based on fantasy.
They are as wretched for the Democrats as for the Republicans. The Democrats, as much as the Republicans, will be looking to James Baker and his Iraq Crisis Group to come up with some sort of lifeline.
