According to sources familiar with US intelligence on the matter, an Iranian attack on Israel is likely to be executed by Iranian proxy forces in the region rather than directly by Iran itself. Tehran is reportedly cautious about escalating the conflict dramatically and is hesitant to provide the United States or its allies with a reason to launch a direct attack on Iran.
The sources also mentioned that Iran and its proxy militia groups do not currently seem prepared to target US troops or assets in the region for similar reasons. However, due to Iran's imperfect command and control over all its proxy forces, the possibility of an attack on US assets cannot be entirely ruled out.
The US and its allies have been on high alert for a potential attack on Israeli and US assets in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, which resulted in the deaths of several Iranian military officials.
US intelligence assessments suggest that Iran has encouraged multiple proxy militia groups to coordinate a large-scale attack on Israel using drones and missiles, with the potential for an imminent strike as early as this week. There is some discussion among sources about whether the attack will occur before or after the conclusion of Ramadan.
One of the sources emphasized the credibility and clarity of the threat, stating that the pieces are in place for an attack and that they are awaiting the right timing to execute it.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has chosen not to provide a comment on the matter.
