A general draws the line
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps used the weekend to make one thing clear: normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz isn't coming back until Washington gives ground. IRGC spokesman Gen. Hossein Mohebbi told the state-run Tasnim News Agency on Saturday that the terms for a full reopening rest entirely with Tehran, and that they hinge on the US abandoning what he described as an interventionist posture. Iran's Tasnim outlet quoted him saying the process is "subject to the specific mechanisms and conditions of the Islamic Republic of Iran," according to several outlets. Mohebbi went further, describing the strait as a symbol of Iranian regional power rather than a simple trade corridor, and he explicitly separated the reopening question from Tehran's ongoing talks with Muscat.
That separation is notable because the Oman channel has become the most advanced diplomatic track of the war. Fighting traces back to Feb. 28, when a joint American-Israeli campaign struck Iranian territory which touched off retaliatory strikes on tankers and left the strait largely paralyzed for months.
Where the Iran-Oman framework stands
Talks between Iranian and Omani negotiators have run for more than three weeks, and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told CNN that the two sides are nearing a proposed framework — while cautioning that finishing it wouldn't force the strait fully open on its own. Under the plan taking shape, inbound vessels would initially travel a corridor running through Iranian waters, while outbound traffic would use a route through Omani waters; after an initial run of roughly two to four months, or possibly longer, the two lanes would combine into one shared channel, according to Gharibabadi's account carried by the same outlet.
The unresolved money question
Payment terms remain the biggest open item. According to Fortune, Iran wants a fee equal to 5% to 7% of a cargo's declared value from vessels using the strait, while Oman has floated something closer to 3% — a gap which notes that legal specialists see a real obstacle here: the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea generally guarantees ships a right of transit passage through straits like Hormuz, meaning an outright toll would sit on shaky legal ground even though coastal states can typically charge for concrete services such as pilotage.
Iran's foreign ministry, meanwhile, keeps insisting the Oman talks are a separate matter from the broader standoff with the US. Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has repeatedly argued that the strait's closure is a direct result of the American naval blockade and what Tehran calls Washington's broken commitments, a position reiterated in reporting from Iran International.
Washington's discomfort
The idea of Iran holding any formal role in strait traffic has unsettled former US officials even before a deal is signed. Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper told Fox News that if Tehran and Muscat end up able to "administer and control it in one way, shape, or form," that outcome would hurt American interests no matter whether a transit fee is attached. President Trump has said he's personally involved in the negotiations, though Iranian officials keep publicly minimizing any direct US role. Current officials sound firmer than Esper's warning suggests a deal might land: Secretary of State Marco Rubio has ruled out any arrangement that leaves Iran effectively deciding who moves through Hormuz, calling that kind of precedent dangerous in remarks carried by PBS.
Washington isn't relying on diplomacy alone. CENTCOM said it has redirected 51 commercial vessels attempting to reach Iranian ports since reinstating its naval blockade on July 14, in addition to disabling two ships and boarding two others. The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control added a fresh round of sanctions this week aimed at digital-asset exchanges and a multi-country network of front companies accused of laundering money for the Revolutionary Guard.
Attacks on shipping haven't let up. The UAE said Saturday that an Iranian missile struck a tanker tied to the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company as it moved through the strait, an act its foreign ministry described as piracy carried out by the Revolutionary Guard, according to Arab News. ADNOC separately confirmed that 15 of its vessels have now been hit by missiles or drones since the war began, with the toll standing at one crew member killed and 20 injured, per the company's own statement reported by Reuters.
Trade volumes tell their own story
The gap between wartime and peacetime traffic is stark. Al Jazeera reported that only eight vessels crossed the strait on a recent Monday, compared with roughly 130 a day before the fighting began in late February. The White House insists the economic damage has stayed contained. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett acknowledged energy prices are somewhat inflated but said the increase is far smaller than most people expected, remarks also carried by Fox News. Whether that assessment holds may depend on what actually emerges from Muscat — and on whether Tehran's public demands soften once a deal exists on paper rather than in negotiating rooms.
