Israeli officials warned the Trump administration over the weekend that an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps missile exercise could be preparations for a strike on Israel, according to three Israeli and U.S. sources with knowledge of the issue.
Why it matters: Israeli sources said that while the intelligence gathered only shows force movements in Iran, the Israel Defense Force's risk tolerance is much lower than it used to be, two years after the Hamas surprise invasion on Oct. 7, 2023.
- One source said Israeli intelligence raised similar concerns six weeks ago, after it identified Iranian missile movements. But nothing came of it.
- "The chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise," one Israeli source said.
- U.S. intelligence currently has no indication an Iranian attack is imminent, an American source told Axios.
Behind the scenes: Israel's military chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, called the head of U.S. Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, on Saturday and told him Israel is concerned by the missile exercise the IRGC started a few days ago, the sources said.
- The sources said Zamir told Cooper that recent Iranian missile movements and other operational steps could also be a cover for a surprise attack. Zamir urged U.S. and Israeli forces to coordinate closely on defensive preparations.
- Cooper was in Tel Aviv on Sunday and held a meeting with Zamir and top IDF officials to discuss the situation.
- The IDF declined to comment. CENTCOM didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
Between the lines: The sources said the biggest risk is a war between Israel and Iran will break as a result of a miscalculation with each side thinking the other plans to attack and try to preempt it.
What to watch: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet President Trump on Dec. 29 in Miami.
- Netanyahu wants to discuss Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile capabilities and the possibility of another strike against Iran in 2026, Israeli sources said.
- NBC News first reported Netanyahu's intention to discuss the issue with Trump.
Driving the news: Israeli sources told Axios that Israeli intelligence sees early signs of a renewed buildup of Iran's missile capabilities with more motivation than the Iranians had since the 12-day war in June.
- The Israeli sources said that at the end of the war Iran was left with 1,500 missiles, down from the 3,000 it had before, and with 200 launchers out of the 400 it had before.
- The Iranians started taking steps to rebuild their forces but haven't returned to the level they were at before the war, Israeli sources said.
- Israeli military intelligence and the Mossad don't think the pace of the Iranian rebuilding steps creates urgency to take military action in the next two to three months, sources said, but they stress it might become a more urgent issue later in the year.
