Iran is not likely to respond directly against Israel but may use its proxies following the death of a top commander of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. The strike, reportedly targeting the consulate, is expected to prompt a response from Iran, possibly through targeting Israelis overseas or leveraging militias like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and others.
The strike, which flattened Iran's consulate and reportedly killed several diplomats, comes amid increased Israeli strikes on Iranian-backed targets in Syria. Experts suggest that Israel's escalation signals a readiness for direct confrontation with Iran, rather than continuing the proxy conflict.
While Iran has vowed a strong response to the attack, analysts believe a significant retaliation is unlikely as Iran and its proxies are wary of a full-scale war with Israel. The strike is seen as a blow to the IRGC's operations and a destabilizing factor for Iranian leadership and their proxies.
The U.S. State Department expressed concern over the reported strike, warning of potential escalation in the region. However, experts suggest that Iran and its allies are unlikely to trigger a full military confrontation with Israel, opting for a more calibrated response.
An expert on Iran and its proxies highlighted that the targeted attack on high-ranking IRGC officers and the Iranian consulate may lead to a more forceful response from Iran, indicating a potentially more dangerous phase in the conflict between Iran and Israel.
