In a recent attack that has raised concerns about Iran's capabilities, an Iran-backed militia has reportedly carried out a drone attack targeting Jordan. Michael Duran, former senior director for the National Security Council and current director of the Hudson Institute Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, highlighted the growing sophistication of Iran's military capabilities due to its relationship with Russia. Duran emphasized that Iran can overwhelm the defenses of any Middle Eastern country, including the United States, using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.
Duran also pointed out the cleverness of the attack, noting that it not only drives a wedge between the United States and the Jordanian regime, but it also targets the Tant base in Syria, which plays a crucial role in Iran's plan to establish a stronger land bridge from Baghdad to Beirut. This attack serves as a message from Iran, seeking to encourage the withdrawal of American forces and advance its regional objectives.
In response to the attack, President Biden has vowed to take action. Calls for targeting inside Iran have emerged from both Republicans and Democrats in Congress. Duran highlighted the need for the administration to demonstrate its willingness to escalate if necessary, as previous restraint has been taken advantage of by the Iranians.
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is intertwining with the larger regional dynamics. Iran has thrown its military power behind the global ceasefire movement, supporting Hamas and seeking its victory. Duran cautioned against pressuring Israel to wind down the war in Gaza, as this could result in a win for Hamas and Iran, undermining American allies in the region.
When discussing the possibility of hostage releases, Duran expressed doubt. The demands put forth by the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, including a permanent ceasefire guaranteed by the international community and the release of all detainees in Israel, are politically impossible for any Israeli government to fulfill. Such demands would signify a victory for Hamas and Iran.
As the conflict between Israel and Hamas persists, there is concern that further attacks, like the recent drone attack, may occur. Duran argued that it is essential to recognize that this is not simply a war for Gaza, but a contest between the Iranian alliance system and the American alliance system. Efforts must focus on winning or deterring Iranian aggression.
The situation in the Middle East remains complex and interconnected, with tensions escalating on multiple fronts. The international community, including the United States, will need to carefully navigate these challenges to mitigate the risk of further escalations and seek peaceful resolutions.
