On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a series of surprise airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure in an attack Israeli officials claimed to be “preventative”.
Israeli ambassador to the UN later said the goal of the strike was to “dismantle Iran’s nuclear programme, eliminate the architects of its terror and aggression and neutralise the regime’s ability to follow through on its repeated public promise to destroy the state of Israel.”
As the dust settled, it emerged that at least three high-ranking Iranian military officials and several nuclear scientists were among the dead, as well as a number of civilian casualties.
Iran vowed a “crushing response,” retaliating to Israel’s offensive by firing hundreds of missiles into Israeli territory.
Since then, both Iran and Israel have exchanged increasing amounts of rocket fire that’s claimed hundreds of lives and destroyed key infrastructure in both countries.
Not only is it thought to be the most severe military escalation seen between Israel and Iran in recent decades, but some experts fear this could spill out into widespread war across the Middle East.
While Western nations have so far demanded a de-escalation in the conflict, several leaders have also reiterated their support for Israel amid growing concerns that even countries like the UK could be roped into a regional war.
It’s an outcome that few currently have an appetite for, but one that could potentially become a reality as the back-and-forth attacks enter their sixth day and tensions reach boiling point.
So how did we get here? And could the UK actually get involved?
Why are Iran and Israel fighting?
The historical relationship between Iran and Israel, as well as their wider operations and proxies in the Middle East, is complex.
Tensions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Israel have been fraught since 1979, when the Islamic Revolution led to the establishment of Iran’s theocratic government. Since then, Iran has voiced its opposition to the existence of Israel in the Middle East and supported the Palestinian people.
Both countries boast a long history of shadow warfare against each other.
When Israel invaded Lebanon in the 1980s, Iran’s leaders helped fund Lebanon’s Hezbollah forces, which have essentially served as a proxy force that Iran could leverage against its rivals. They also backed the terror group Hamas in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and the Houthis in Yemen, providing them with funding and access to military weapons.
Since the 2000s, Israel has sounded the alarm bells about Iran creating nuclear weapons, even though these allegations have never actually manifested into a tangible and functioning weapon. Iran claimed to halt its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and has since said it is only developing nuclear tools for peaceful purposes.
It’s actually Israel that is the only country in the Middle East believed to own weapons of mass destruction, according to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, though leaders have maintained a veil of secrecy over their arsenal.
The bottom line is that Islamic Republic leaders don’t believe that Israel should exist, viewing Israel as an oppressor in the region and a Western colonial outpost that’s carrying out the bidding of the US. Israel sees Iran as an existential threat to its existence.
At the heart of this also lies two leaders seemingly determined to keep their grip on power regardless of the lives this claims: Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Both men are also embattled in their own right, making things even more complicated:
How did this start?
Israel has maintained that its goals are to stop Iran from creating a nuclear weapon, but the reality of the situation could be a little more complex than that.
Since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, which led to widespread destruction of the Gaza Strip and the killing of more than 55,000 Palestinians, tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated.
While it’s hard to pinpoint a ‘starting’ point, things started to get really tense in 2024 when Iran and Israel directly exchanged fire after decades of operating largely in the shadows.
An emboldened Israel, armed by Western nations and continuing its warfare with relative impunity, bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria in April 2024, killing 16 people, to which Iran and its proxies retaliated.
After the summer, Israel then expanded its attacks on Hezbollah and assassinated its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Israel also assassinated Palestinian negotiator Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Iranian general Abbas Nilforoushan. Iran responded again, firing missiles that were largely intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defence system. Israel then struck again against Iranian targets.
Tensions had largely simmered until June 2025 when Israel launched its latest attack, claiming that Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon - a claim that the Islamic Republic deny. Netanyahu has also suggested hopes of a regime change in Iran.
There might have also been other elements at play.
Iran’s proxies have been severely weakened in recent months, which may have encouraged Israeli officials to act now. It also comes amid growing international criticism of Netanyahu’s attacks in the Gaza Strip, where the civilian population is facing starvation and gunfire at aid points. With all focus now on Iran, some reports reveal that Gazans fear they’ve been forgotten.
On top of that, the timing of Israel’s attack is interesting as it comes as the US prepares to meet with Tehran to hash out a ‘deal’ regarding its nuclear programme.
Christian Sigl, Lecturer in International Politics and PhD Candidate at the University of Regensburg, Germany, who has done extensive research on the US, Iran, and Israel told The Standard: “The timing of Israel’s strikes indicates that the Netanyahu government wants to intervene and influence those negotiations.
“The diplomatic talks are on hold for now (since the two-month deadline which Trump set for Iran elapsed), but not definitely concluded. Netanyahu has always been highly sceptical of a diplomatic agreement with Iran over its nuclear programme, and he is certain that Trump will not stop him from creating facts on the ground by taking military action,” he added.
What’s going on now?
Since Friday, both Iran and Israel have exchanged missiles every day, killing hundreds of people and leaving many fleeing Tehran. These rocket attacks can be seen in the skies as far away as Lebanon, Cyprus and Egypt, and civilians across the region are expressing concern and fear.
What the international community decides to do next will play a factor in the outcome of this escalating crisis.
In recent days, Trump has seemingly toyed with the idea of removing Iran’s leader, branding him “an easy target” and demanding a full surrender, to which the Ayatollah has said his country “is not one to surrender.”
US forces have also moved into the region, seemingly signalling Trump is considering a US intervention - though other US politicians are now trying to limit Trump’s power to send Americans to war without a vote in Congress.
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz thanked Israel for doing the “dirty work for all of us,” and the G7 leaders shared a joint statement in which they voiced their support for Israel.
At this point, and with such fast-moving developments, it’s difficult to say where things will go. Things could change at any minute.
Could the UK get involved in the Iran-Israel conflict?
Sir Keir Starmer was chairing a meeting of the emergency Cobra committee on Wednesday to discuss the security situation in the Middle East, it has been reported.
Iran has threatened to target UK bases if they were to support Israel, but for now, it seems like the UK is pushing for de-escalation.
The UK also continues to allow the sale of arms to Israel, and they haven’t ruled out defending the nation if things escalate. In recent days, Sir Keir Starmer told reporters: “We've already been moving assets to the region, including jets, and that is for contingency support across the region. Our constant message is de-escalate, and therefore everything we're doing, all discussions we're having are to do with de-escalation."
Other MPs have also warned against the UK wading into another Middle Eastern conflict amid concerns that it could be a repeat of interventions in Libya and Iraq.
Commenting on the prospect of UK and European involvement, Mr Sigl said, “As of now, chances are low.”
“The big question is whether the US actively joins the war and supports Israel (whose resources are limited and strained at this point) in the strikes against Iran – which would change the regional power and conflict dynamics massively,” he said.
“The UK and EU countries have a very limited influence in US-American and Israeli decision-making. Both the Trump and Netanyahu administrations have sidelined the Europeans during the recent conflict escalations.”
He added: “The European countries have a limited influence by publicly taking a stand on Israel’s war with Iran (they already do by backing Israel while simultaneously warning of regional escalation). This gets even more complicated by Israel’s brutal military action against the Palestinians in its war with Hamas, where opinions among the European countries are divided.”
