This was before the Miami Heat’s season-opening blowout of the defending-champion Milwaukee Bucks, before the record-setting performance that opened additional eyes to the possibilities of what Pat Riley has crafted for 2021-22.
This was during the innocuous preseason exercise of ESPN having its experts predict potential conference-finals scenarios and NBA Finals outcomes.
While the network’s bloviators were included, there was one prediction in particular that deserved the expert tag. Because former Brooklyn Nets assistant general manager Bobby Marks spent more than 20 years in the league as an executive.
And there it was from Marks.
Eastern Conference finals: Heat over Nets.
NBA Finals: Heat over Jazz.
Wait, what?
Fact checking ensued, namely a call to Florida’s southwest coast, where Marks resides.
The first question was a simple, “Why?”
“I keep notes for everyone,” Marks told the South Florida Sun Sentinel, “and I think they have the best starting five in the Eastern Conference. I think they’re better than Brooklyn’s top five. I think they’re better than Milwaukee. You can go down the list there.
“I think the Kyrie [Irving] factor weighs in for me. I don’t see him stepping on the court in Brooklyn at all this year, unless, of course, there’s a new mayor and maybe that [vaccination requirement] changes.”
It is a prediction that comes with qualifiers, as all logical ones must, given the uncertainly of the 82-game regular-season roller coaster.
“My concern is their depth,” Marks continued. “That is it. If you asked me to pick out something, you are relying heavily on your former two-way guys, [Gabe] Vincent, Max [Strus].
“Markieff [Morris]? There’s a reason why Markieff has been a minimum guy the last three, four years. You’re relying certainly on P.J. [Tucker] staying healthy for most of the year. [Dewayne] Dedmon, guys like that, a band of misfits, I would say.”
But one current Heat reserve balances some of the bench doubts.
“‘Certainly Tyler [Herro] is the X-factor. He becomes the X-factor with that group,” Marks said. “So, yeah, if you told me Kyrie is there for the whole year, then I’m probably not picking Miami. And Milwaukee’s got a little bit of a hangover and a mixed bag for their bench, too. That’s why I pick the Miami Heat to come out of the Eastern Conference.”
Included in that optimal alignment, Marks said, would be a return of Victor Oladipo from his May quadriceps surgery.
“We’ll see if they can get anything out of Oladipo down the road, maybe January, February. I think that’s also, from a bench standpoint, certainly a wild card,” Marks said. “I think you need nine solid. They probably are around seven or eight right now. You’re certainly relying on guys that are a little unproven there. Their bench does not line up to Brooklyn’s. I think Brooklyn’s bench is probably the best in the league. But I have a lot of questions about durability about the guys in Brooklyn. I really do. I think that’s going to linger over them all year.”
As with many who forecast playoff success for the Heat’s revised mix, with Kyle Lowry joining Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, Marks is not necessarily as sold on regular-season success.
“I think they’re anywhere from three to six,” he said of potential playoff seeding. “I don’t think they’re a play-in team. I think they’re in that three-to-six range.
“I think they have playoff depth, eight guys. Regular-season depth, you’re probably using all 14 guys and your two-way guys.”
So tempered expectations early, but all-in with the late-April to mid-June portion of the schedule.
“Do I see them winning 55 games? I don’t,” Marks said. “I think that 47, 48 number is more realistic. But I have confidence when they get to the playoffs they can match up to some of these heavyweights.”
The confidence is such that Marks’ prediction for MVP is ... Butler.
And his prediction for Coach of the Year is ... the Heat’s Erik Spoelstra.
“I think they’re better built for the playoffs compared to the regular season,” he said.
