MIAMI _ The lesson from last season is that you cannot foretell the inexplicable, how 11-30 can turn into 41-41.
Even in retrospect, even after predicting that very 41-41 record last October (you can look it up), the Miami Heat's 2016-17 season made no sense.
Granted, early injuries and late coalescing created a dichotomy like no other in the franchise's first 29 seasons. But no one saw that start or that finish coming.
So what to expect this season?
1. Something completely different in terms how the final record comes together, but also something comfortingly familiar when it comes to Erik Spoelstra's rotation, even with Rodney McGruder now out.
2. Healthier faces in most of the right places. While no one can predict injuries, and the McGruder absence certainly is a blow, it is safe to say Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow want no part of last season's misery, and Dion Waiters can't afford any, with a cool $1 million bonus for appearing in 70 games.
3. A fierce fellowship. The lasting lesson of the 30-11 finish is ensemble success is the only means to such an end, with a roster again lacking an All-Star but with depth to wear many opponents into submission.
4. A 44-38 record.
5. And first-round consternation by the playoff opponent.
While such a forecast represents a mere three-game jump from last season's finish, there also has to be perspective about this: In most matchups, the Heat will not be the team featuring the best player on the court.
While a singular sensation hardly guarantees success (See: Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks era), it generally makes the game easier.
In the Eastern Conference, an argument could be made that the Heat will feature the game's best player (and argue between Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic, or anyone else you so choose), when playing the:
_ Orlando Magic (Terrence Ross? Aaron Gordon? Jonathon Simmons?)
_ Atlanta Hawks (Dennis Schroder?)
_ Indiana Pacers (Myles Turner? Victor Oladipo?)
_ Chicago Bulls (Zach LaVine?)
_ Brooklyn Nets (DeAngelo Russell? Jeremy Lin?)
_ And perhaps the Detroit Pistons (Reggie Jackson? Andre Drummond?) and Charlotte Hornets (Kemba Walker?).
Otherwise, it's John Wall, LeBron James, Gordon Hayward, DeMar DeRozan, Joel Embiid, Kristaps Porzingis, Giannis Antetokounmpo and a host of others,
And from the West, it is difficult to argue the Heat having superior leading men beyond, perhaps, the Sacramento Kings (Zach Randolph? George Hill?), Phoenix Suns (Devin Booker? Eric Bledsoe?), Los Angeles Lakers (Brandon Ingram? Kentavious Caldwell-Pope?), Dallas Mavericks (Harrison Barnes? An aging Dirk Nowitzki?) and Utah Jazz (Rudy Gobert? Ricky Rubio?).
So what this season will come down to is depth, even with the McGruder absence, that particularly can wear down opponents during the regular season.
And it has to start in the Heat's own division, not because divisional placement means anything in playoff seeding (it doesn't), but because those are 16 winnable games, based on going 4-0 last season against a returning Washington Wizards roster. What can't happen is last season's 1-3 against the Magic. What has to happen is at least 10 victories in the 12 combined games against the Hawks, Hornets and Magic.
Of course, that's also where you get into trouble, trying to go game-by-game, as is the typical exercise with football schedules. Few envisioned the three victories last season against the Cleveland Cavaliers or that one epic moment against the Golden State Warriors. But there also were those hideous moments against the 76ers, Knicks and Magic after the turnaround had begun.
What will follow, starting Wednesday in Orlando, should be entertaining, competitive and certainly more even keel.
But in a league of star appeal, there also are limits to heart and hustle.
