MIAMI _ The premise was going to be about hope, about putting the think-tankers in their place, about having it both ways, winning now by the Miami Heat and still cashing in later in the NBA draft.
Because, after all, Kawhi Leonard was the No. 15 pick and Klay Thompson No. 11 in 2011. Giannis Antetokounmpo was selected at No. 15 and Steve Adams at No. 12 in 2013. Or even more recently, Devin Booker went at No. 13 and Myles Turner at No. 11 in 2015.
So have your winter fling Miami Heat and still find enduring comfort if it should fall short and result in a late lottery pick.
That was going to be the argument, and, certainly still could be. Because one premise that never should be discounted is the therapeutic value of winning, of sustaining what the Heat have offered in recent weeks.
And then came The Vertical's first formal mock draft of the season, the one authored by Jonathan Givony, the founder of DraftExpress.com who has spent more than a decade smartly tracking the talent and trends of the draft.
And then came: With the No. 11 pick in the 2017 NBA draft, the Miami Heat select ... Miles Bridges, freshman, 18, 6-6, Michigan State, "Miami's recent winning streak has taken it out of contention for the impressive crop of potential star guard prospects. Instead, the ultra-athletic Bridges could be an interesting combo forward to pair with fellow combo forward Justise Winslow."
Much of course is fluid, including questions of the Heat sustaining their recent play or even the direction of the franchise at the Feb. 23 NBA trading deadline.
At the top of Givony's mock is where the sex appeal comes: 1. Markelle Fultz; 2. Lonzo Ball; 3. Josh Jackson; 4. Dennis Smith; 5. Jonathan Isaac; 6. Lauri Markkanen; 7. Jayson Tatum; 8. De'Aaron Fox; 9. Frank Ntilikina; 10. Malik Monk.
"We're still trying to figure out how the tiers of this draft will look," Givony said Friday by phone. "But if the draft were tonight, I would probably say that somewhere around nine, 10, 11, it's where it really falls off.
"Most NBA teams would tell you that the nine guys at the top or 10 are really outstanding prospects. It's the order of those 10 we could argue all day about."
But what about Leonard? And Antetokounmpo? Or even possibly Booker? What about a team falling just short of the playoffs, winding up drafting in the early teens, and doing such a good job with their homework that there still is quality payoff?
It's almost as if the wrong number had been dialed.
"I mean," Givony said, "all I can go off is history, and this is something that we've really studied. And I can tell you that once you get outside of the Top 10, you are, in all likelihood, drafting backups.
"In the last 15 years, there have been four All-Stars drafted in 11 through 20. Whereas, one through 10, there have been 40. So you have a 10-times higher chance of an All-Star. But that's not fair because one is obviously is very different than 10. So you can really break it up. But once you get outside of the Top 10, you have to really hit a home run to get an impact guy."
An expert with numbers to back it up. Kind of hoped it was the wrong number.
"I'm looking at this right now," he continued of drafting in the teens. "Fifty percent of the time you get a guy who is a career backup. Twenty-one percent of the time you get a guy who is just a fringe NBA player, that spends most of his career at the end of the bench or is out of the league. And then there's a couple of guys who didn't even play in the NBA in the 11 through 20 range. It's dicey territory. Yeah, you could get Kawhi Leonard. But I wouldn't count on it."
The thing is, Givony said, this is a draft that could prove forgiving _ to a degree.
"I think it's really exciting," he said, "because the teams in the five-through-10 range are going to have a chance to draft guys that normally go three through seven. That's where there's slightly more depth in terms of the star power. But I think going any further than that is overstating the impact of some of these guys."
