MIAMI _ To his credit, Pat Riley thinks big.
And perhaps after 2010 and the creation of the Big Three skepticism should be put aside when it comes to the grand visions of the Miami Heat president.
But the math _ at the moment (which is important) _ hardly seems to support the supposition that the Miami Heat could possibly position themselves for two max (or at least major) free-agent additions in the 2020 offseason.
At the moment, the Heat are committed to $71.6 million in salary for 2020-21, when counting only James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, Dion Waiters, Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and Bam Adebayo.
That does not include the salaries of 2019 and '20 first-round picks, selections still held by the team.
The projected salary-cap for 2020-21, which certainly could change in the interim, is $118 million.
So the math doesn't seem to add up.
But this also is the no-state-tax Heat, the mesmerizing eyes of Riley that can convince you to take a little less, and perhaps some upcoming magic from Andy Elisburg that makes salary melt away as it did on the eve of 2010 free agency with the maneuvering from Shawn Marion, Jermaine O'Neal, Marcus Banks and Daequan Cook, among others.
Fine.
Riley and the Heat front office have the right to dream (and scheme), as Riley offered on his video presentation to season-ticket holders that the team released Wednesday.
"In 2020, we'll have a lot of room," he said. "We'll also have the possibility to have enough room to go after two max contracts. And we're going to do that. So, we're planning that 2020 will be the room year."
But here's the rub: The NBA's Class of 2020 when it comes to free agency basically is Anthony Davis ... and precious little otherwise.
And considering we have been talking about Anthony Davis for months now, the odds he remains available on July 1, 2020, would be ... ?
But if the Heat are to whittle away at what currently is on their 2020-21 books _ "Want Goran Dragic for next season, then take one from column B (Johnson, Waiters, Olynyk) as well" _ then this is where the 2020 offseason currently stands when it comes to the market, one that certainly could change if Class of '19 free agents take one-year deals:
_ Anthony Davis (player option): Someone will trade for Davis this summer. The acquiring team certainly will want assurances about Davis re-signing. But such assurances can be fleeting. (Just ask the Boston Celtics in the wake of Kyrie Irving's loyalty pledge and retraction.)
_ Gordon Hayward (player option): It certainly has not played out as expected in Boston. And the Heat were high on his list in 2017. But is the perception still of a max free agent?
_ Draymond Green: A fascinating case study as an ultimate complementary piece. But the same impact without Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson alongside? Especially at this price point?
_ DeMar DeRozan (player option): DeRozan turns 31 in the 2020 offseason. Big money and big years at that stage seemingly would come with significant risk.
_ Kyle Lowy, Serge Ibaka: The Kawhi Leonard decision this summer certainly could impact the Toronto Raptors' decisions going forward. But circling back to players of previous interest seems less likely, with Lowry to be 34 in the 2020 offseason and Ibaka 31.
_ Otto Porter (player option): Like many who feasted amid the NBA's previous cap-space binges, this could be a case of a willingness to take a pay cut. A nice piece, but hardly a centerpiece.
_ Ben Simmons (restricted): Yes, the Philadelphia 76ers playmaker currently is listed as part of the 2020 class. But it is inconceivable a rookie-scale extension doesn't change that status.
_ Pascal Siakam (restricted), Dejounte Murray (restricted), Jamal Murray (restricted), Caris LeVert (restricted): Again, valued restricted free agents don't get away. They just don't. And tying up cap space with offer sheets presents issues of its own.
_ Other notable 2020 restricted free agents: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram, Domantas Sabonis, Dario Saric
_ Other notable players with 2020 player options: Nicolas Batum, Evan Fournier, Andre Drummond, Tim Hardaway Jr.
_ Other notable unrestricted 2020 free agents: Avery Bradley, Jordan Clarkson, Danilo Gallinari, Eric Gordon, Montrezl Harrell, Joe Harris, Andre Iguodala, Reggie Jackson, Andre Roberson.
