Cap space. Cap space. Cap space.
Over and over and over.
As if it is the only way to rebuild or fortify in the NBA.
And, now, this, the reality that the new coronavirus pandemic is likely to change everything assumed about the Miami Heat's future, when it was going to be as simple as loading up with 2021 cap space and then reeling in (or, to use Pat Riley parlance, harpooning in) Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Oladipo or some other prime piece that could be available in July 2021.
The initial projection, in advance of the pandemic and the resulting economic strain, was a $125 million salary cap for 2021-22 payrolls.
Now, without the NBA "smoothing" the cap over coming seasons to minimize the impact of the current economic climate, former Memphis Grizzlies executive John Hollinger wrote for The Athletic about a consensus of NBA number crunchers of something along the lines of a '21-22 cap of $110 million. Even with smoothing, he offered a consensus projection of $112 million.
Similarly, the initial projection for this coming offseason was a $116 million cap, with Hollinger drawing a league consensus closer to $85 million "unsmoothed" or $109 million "smoothed."
In other words, banking on cap space is starting to look like a low- (no?-) return investment.
For this coming offseason, the Heat's potential cap space was illusory. Yes, there initially could have been upwards of $27 million in space, but that likely would have meant moving on from Goran Dragic, Jae Crowder, Meyers Leonard and, possibly, Derrick Jones Jr. And for what? With little worth targeting this offseason if, as expected, Anthony Davis remains with the Lakers (with all due respect to impending free agents Danilo Gallinari and Paul Millsap).
But if 2021 cap space still remains the Heat priority, it no longer might be as simple as just bringing back Dragic, Crowder, Leonard and Jones on one-year deals. As this moment has shown, there are no guarantees when it comes to future cap space.
But there is another way, in many ways The Heat Way.
A few years back, when asked about concerns about future cap space, a Heat executive began shaking his head, stressing, "It's not just about cap space."
Because as the Heat have shown, you also can make it work with money on the books.
Alonzo Mourning? Acquired by trade.
Tim Hardaway? By trade.
Shaquille O'Neal? By trade.
Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, James Posey? By the same trade.
Dragic? By trade.
Jimmy Butler? By trade, when the Heat didn't have a nickel in cap space to their name.
Andre Iguodala and Crowder? By trade.
(LeBron James and Chris Bosh were acquired by sign-and-trade, but that only was because the Heat had the threat of ample cap space.)
So here's another thought on the (cap-) space race: Collect assets instead.
Recall, there was a point after signing Dion Waiters and James Johnson in 2017 that Riley believed, at worst, they could become tradeable assets at the ends of their deals. And while that did prove to be the case, it only was by being forced to add the sweetener of Justise Winslow.
All of which takes us to the 2021 offseason.
Because if the Heat retain Dragic, Crowder, Leonard and Jones on deals beyond a single season, they ultimately could turn into trade chips, just as Josh Richardson was for Butler after signing his Heat multi-year extension.
Unlike a waiting game on cap space, by the Heat bringing the gang back there would be ample trade chips that could be put into play on a dollar-by-dollar basis, pieces that not only could be in play for free agents in sign-and-trades, but anywhere on the trade market.
While the Heat might not be willing to budge with Bam Adebayo, Butler or perhaps Tyler Herro, there still would be ample chips for Riley and Andy Elisburg to maneuver, similar to when Caron Butler, Lamar Odom and Brian Grant turned into Shaq.
Chips such as re-signed Dragic, Crowder, Leonard or Jones, or the emerged youth of Kendrick Nunn or Duncan Robinson, or the still-to-be-developed skills of Chris Silva, KZ Okpala or the Heat's 2020 first-round pick.
Lament, if you must, about uncertain future cap space.
Or collect chips for the moment to go all-in on the trade market, as Riley has done before.
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