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Sport
Ira Winderman

Ira Winderman: East a roadblock for Heat now, maybe more so in future

MIAMI _ April 13 was the big tease, when the Brooklyn Nets and Orlando Magic won the opening games of their playoff series.

Then reality hit home for the lower seeds in the Eastern Conference playoffs _ an 0-16 record the remainder of the first round.

The lesson was that the East was exactly what just about everyone had forecast at the outset of the season, that there were _ in some order _ the Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors, Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics, and then everyone else in the conference.

Granted, the Indiana Pacers kept it interesting while Victor Oladipo was around, but the question for the rest of the conference becomes whether the first round of the playoffs will continue as the limit in the near term.

For the Heat, that reality may further steel the approach of waiting until cap space is available in the 2020 offseason, or perhaps even reset the retrofit target to 2021, when there could be even more cap space.

That's not to say there aren't vulnerabilities, which could make the second round in the East particularly compelling.

Lose to the 76ers, and the Raptors' grip on Kawhi Leonard _ if there ever was one _ could be further weakened entering the All-Star forward's summer of free agency.

By contrast, fall meekly to the Raptors in this year's second round as they did to the Celtics in last year's second round, and the 76ers could have their own free-agency concerns with Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, JJ Redick and a luxury tax that could soar into the stratosphere.

Then there are the Celtics, who could keep it as simple as re-signing a sated Kyrie Irving with playoff success, or who could activate the all-in button for an Anthony Davis trade.

And if it is Milwaukee that comes up short against Boston, will the Bucks be as likely to retain, or to be able to retain, Khris Middleton, their prime offseason free agent, let alone be able to make a deal for more of Brook Lopez?

Still, with the emergence of Pascal Siakam in Toronto, the ongoing pairing of Joel Embiid-Ben Simmons in Philadelphia, the re-emergence of Gordon Hayward in Boston and the MVP-level consistency of Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee, there is plenty of reason to believe that cracking the core four in the East will be just as challenging next season. And beyond.

That is where it gets sticky for the Heat, who so often insist on living in the moment.

Because for as much hope as Pat Riley has put in his youthful core of Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and Bam Adebayo, it's not as if there aren't a host of next-gen teams in the East in better position to play the long game, to wait out these Bucks, Raptors, 76ers and Celtics.

The Nets have the youth of D'Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie and cap space.

The Atlanta Hawks have the promise of Trae Young, John Collins and potentially two lottery selections in June.

The New York Knicks have Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson and as good of a chance as anyone in the lottery to land Zion Williamson.

Even the Cavaliers, with the same lottery odds as the Knicks, have the emerging Collin Sexton and the ability to flip Kevin Love for additional youth.

That's not even getting into what another lottery pick might do for the Bulls and Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen, or what a John Wall return alongside Bradley Beal might mean for the Washington Wizards.

It is just another reason why the Heat appear to be stuck in a precarious purgatory.

Only dramatic overachieving could push them past a one-and-done playoff reality in the short term.

And only a dramatic swing for the fences in a trade or free agency is likely to keep them ahead of those already in the process of reloading.

As the Bucks, Raptors, 76ers and Celtics play through these next two weeks, it likely will continue to remain apparent how severe the gap is between the Heat and the top of the East.

And as the rest of the conference reloads, the question becomes whether the Heat also will be playing from behind in the future.

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