MIAMI _ It started as a given, this conversation with a long-time NBA pro-personnel scout, the notion that Goran Dragic would be gone from the Miami Heat by the Feb. 23 NBA trading deadline. And yet, as the conversation evolved, the reasoning went full circle, to how Dragic making it through the season made sense, as well.
The initial reasoning for the phone call was to gauge what, in the eyes of a veteran of decades of NBA transactions and salary-cap machinations, Dragic could fetch on the trade market.
"They could get a great draft pick," the scout, who required anonymity as he spoke about another's team's player under contract, said. "I think you can get a first and, I don't know when, something else in the draft. Are you going to get the fifth pick in the draft? No.
"I'm not sure about multiple firsts. I think the second one would have to be stretched long into the future. But I think you can get a first and a second. You certainly could get, at minimum, a first."
The skepticism of the Eastern Conference scout was not about Dragic, even with the Heat's losing record, but the perception that has received so much national discourse, of the need for the Heat to move on.
"They have two players on that team, and he's one of them," the scout said of Hassan Whiteside and Dragic. "I mean, starting point guard, this is the hardest position to fill. On some teams, he might be the difference maker."
With Dragic to turn 31 before next season, the scout appreciated the dialogue about the Heat turning toward youth, mentioning how the Heat's own expected lottery pick could turn into a replacement at point guard with UCLA's Lonzo Ball or Washington's Markelle Fultz.
But the scout said that unless the Heat double-down on tanking, there is no guarantee of securing either of that duo, who currently are projected to go at the very top of the draft.
"And then where are you, but looking for a point guard?" he said.
The discussion included how Dragic's $17 million salary for 2017-18 probably wouldn't be enough to acquire an equivalent replacement talent in free agency, if one even was available, and how Dragic still is young enough to offer a reliable complement to Whiteside over the remaining three seasons on the four-year, $98 million contract Whiteside signed in July.
And then the scout mentioned Pat Riley, and the recent, well-publicized comments from the Heat president about a rapid rebuild, something unlikely with a drafted point guard, particularly one with only one season of collegiate experience.
So what if the Heat instead moved in the draft for a scoring wing, someone like Kansas' Josh Jackson? And what if the Riley magic still was enough to land an A-list free agent, perhaps if the Los Angeles Clippers again crash and burn in the postseason and a Blake Griffin were to potentially shake free?
Such eventualities could leave the Heat (and, remember, we were just spit-balling amid the outside conjecture) with a lineup of Whiteside at center, Griffin at power forward, Jackson at small forward, Justise Winslow at shooting guard and Dragic at point guard, with Tyler Johnson and Josh Richardson in reserve, as well as a significant portion of leftover salary-cap cash for at least a B-level free agent.
There was a pause on the other end of the line.
"You're kind of making a case for keeping him," the scout said of Dragic.
The point being that for every argument, especially the loudest ones being offered at the moment, about trading Dragic, there are counters for waiting, at least to see what shakes out of the draft lottery and the lottery itself.
With the Heat playing Tuesday in Phoenix, and with the Heat owing a top-seven-protected 2018 first-round pick and then a 2021 unprotected pick to the Suns because of the Feb. 19, 2015 trade for Dragic, the talk figures to increase about the Heat recouping their losses. But the worst trades are the ones that aren't forward-thinking.
Dealing Dragic by the trading deadline only makes sense if a perspective suitor simply has to have a starting-quality point guard for the balance of the season, willing to pay a premium for the timing of such a move. Otherwise, patience to further assess the draft's possibilities appears to make the most sense for the Heat.
