An argument could be made that the Miami Heat could not have picked a worse season for a shaky start.
Their unprotected first-round pick is controlled by the Oklahoma City Thunder.
An argument also could be made that the Heat could not have picked a better season for a shaky start.
For the first time, the NBA has added a play-in tournament for the final two seeds in each conference, meaning as long as you have one of the 10 best records in each 15-team conference, you get to play on after the regular season.
So half empty for Erik Spoelstra’s team?
Or half full?
Certainly, no one could have envisioned after last season’s run to the NBA Finals that the Heat’s 2021 first-round pick would potentially come attached with Ping-Pong balls. It is the same vision Pat Riley assuredly had when he traded it away, without protection, to the Phoenix Suns along with another, protected, first-round pick for Goran Dragic in February 2015.
But here the Heat stand, on the outside of the playoff picture amid pandemic protocols that have robbed the roster of continuity and Spoelstra of cohesion on the practice court.
That makes this season unlike 2016-17, when the Heat overcame an 11-30 start with a 30-11 finish only to lose out on a playoff tiebreaker to Dwyane Wade’s and Jimmy Butler’s Chicago Bulls.
That year, the lottery consolation was Bam Adebayo at No. 14. Consolation, indeed.
This year, the draft is loaded, making the Heat’s first-round pick coveted currency — at least at the moment.
But that’s where the NBA’s revised playoff format also could offer salvation, where even a ninth- or 10th-place finish could avert a Heat lottery lament.
To refresh, per the NBA:
“At the conclusion of the regular season, the team with the seventh-highest winning percentage in each conference will host the team with the eighth-highest winning percentage in its conference in a play-in Game (the “seven-eight game”). The winner of the seven-eight game in each conference will be the seventh seed in the playoffs for its conference.
“The team with the ninth-highest winning percentage in each conference will host the team with the 10th-highest winning percentage in its conference in a play-in game (the “nine-10 game”). The loser of the seven-eight game will host the winner of the nine-10 game in a Play-In Game, and the winner of that game will be the eighth seed in the playoffs for its conference.”
In other words, avoid finishing with one of the five worst records in the conference, and there will be more after the regular season. And if anything over the years, Spoelstra has shown that few coaches prepare better for a targeted game (for those who disagree, ask Jeremy Lin).
For some teams, advancing to the play-in games could mean potentially forfeiting lottery luck — again, in a year when there appears to be significant depth of elite talent at the top of the first round.
That, alone, could have some teams turning toward the tank as the 72-game schedule plays out.
In previous seasons, the playoff-prediction game came down to identifying seven teams in each conference needed to finish ahead of to make the postseason. This season the number is five, at least when it comes to the play-in round.
In the East, with the trade speculation swirling about Bradley Beal, the Washington Wizards have a 15th-place look about them. Then you have teams such as the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons that could trade off current pieces for future currency. For their part, the New York Knicks appear to be regressing to their lottery mean. So toss in the Charlotte Hornets, Orlando Magic or Chicago Bulls, and the safety of “We’re No. 10!” could/should yet resonate.
Or you could pronounce the Heat finished, an absurd notion for anyone at the moment other than, of course, longtime Heat instigator Paul Pierce.
“As great as the Miami Heat were in the playoffs last year, they will not make the playoffs this year,” Pierce said on ESPN’s The Jump.
“That’s not the Miami Heat team we saw last year — full of grit, full of grind, like the Memphis Grizzlies. That team was built on hard work and toughness, and I have not seen that this year, and that’s why I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs.”
Taking on water? Certainly. But the Titanic? Assuredly not nearly that half empty.
