Gujarat Titans on Monday became the first team to officially qualify for the IPL 2023 playoffs, and their 34-run win vs SRH also meant that the 2016 champions became the second team after the Delhi Capitals to be knocked out of the playoffs race.
That leaves 3 spots vacant now, with 7 teams still mathematically in the running, though CSK and MI are the frontrunners to take two of the three remaining playoffs berths.
Of the 7 teams still in the race, MI, LSG, RCB and PBKS have 2 matches left to play, while CSK, RR and KKR have one league game left to play.
| IPL POINTS TABLESCHEDULE & RESULTSWith 8 matches left to play in the league stage of IPL 2023, there are now 256 possible combinations of results. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. As things stand, one team is sure of finishing first or second, another is almost certain to make the play-offs, a third one is a strong favourite to do so and a fourth team has a nearly two-thirds chance. Among the others, DC and SRH are now definitely out of the play-offs race but the others are still mathematically in the running.
TOI's Shankar Raghuraman does the number crunching to determine how the teams stand as of Tuesday, May 16 morning, in 10 points:
1. GT, after Monday’s win, are guaranteed to finish in top spot in terms of points either singly or jointly. Their chances of being sole leader have improved to 87.5%. But even if they tie for top spot, it can only be with one other team, so they are sure of finishing the league stage as No.1 or 2
2. CSK can no longer grab top spot or even tie for it, but they are also almost certain of making it to the top four on points with their chances of finishing in that bracket either singly or jointly now at 94.9%
(Photo: @tata_neu Twitter)
3. MI are in third place, and their chances of making the top four on points are now at 89%, though that includes scenarios where they’re tied for the fourth spot. They are the only team that can tie with GT for top spot
4. In fourth spot currently, LSG can also no longer aspire for top spot, but have a 65.2% chance of making the top four. Once again that includes scenarios in which they are only joint fourth, some of them with multiple teams
5. RCB are in fifth place and their chances of finishing in the top four remain at 43.8% though this includes situations of teams tied on points for the last spot. They can no longer aspire to top the league stage
6. Currently in sixth place, RR’s chances of making the top four remain at 18.8%. They can do not better than tied fourth, and that’s if they win their remaining game and other results fall in place
7. KKR, now in seventh place, can also not finish better than tied fourth with between one and five other teams. But their chances of achieving that are better than RR’s at 21.1%
8. PK are in eighth place, but an extra game in hand means their chances of finishing in the top four on points are better, at 43.8%, than RR or KKR, which are above them in the table
9. Ninth placed SRH are now officially out of the play-offs, like DC, with their best possible placing being sixth
10. DC’s shot at the play-offs is also now officially over. They became the first team to get eliminated following Saturday’s loss to PK
(AI image)
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 256 possible combinations of results with 8 matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then looked at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 256 possible result combinations, GT finishes in sole top slot on points in 224. That translates to a 87.5% chance of being the sole leader at the end of the league stage. We do not take net run rates or No Results into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.
