It seems to be time for the annual "Apple to launch iPhone" story to do the rounds, and Rethink Research has the latest version, republished by ExtremeTech. You really need to read the whole thing, but the key bits are:
The thinking is that Apple is going to emerge with a phone that can talk to iTunes, dubbed the iPhone, which will run on Apple's own MVNO cellular network, that it will set up towards the end of this year. Somehow the Morgan Stanley analysts have even put a value on this activity, at around $1.2 billion a year for Apple.
Well, we see an awful lot wrong with what's being said. We don't think Apple would start an enterprise worth just $1.2 billion, not when most companies in this sector are bigger than that.
It makes more sense for Apple to offer whatever device it comes up with to other existing operators, rather than turning itself into an MVNO operator. That way Apple would be forced to subsidize the devices it makes to the tune of a few billion dollars, which would take Apple away from its existing business model and confuse investors. Apple could of course make this a retail proposition, telling customers that before they sign up for an MVNO, they have to shell out maybe $400 for a phone, but that would act as a major drag on its success and we don't think it should risk it.
Comment: Apple probably is doing something, because Steve Jobs must have seen the Sony Ericsson W800 by now, and realised that it's the writing on the wall for the iPod -- not immediately, of course, but within the foreseeable future. A 99g smartphone that takes decent pictures, has a built-in radio, runs Java games and plays MP3/AAC files is a no-brainer, especially if network operators are giving them away with contacts. And while it's not perfect, next year's models will be better.
