Exit polls are so 2004. Politico reports on plans from the major US television networks and Associated Press for Iowa caucus entrance polls.
Sounds like a bad idea? It probably is. The entrance poll results will be broadcast before the official vote is announced and in some cases even before it has taken place. Expect that to be a big problem where Democrats are involved. Unlike the Republicans, Democratic caucusing rules allow supporters of eliminated candidates to back their second choice in a later round of voting (a "realignment" in caucus talk).
Mickey Kaus has six further reasons to be concerned. Worst of all, he argues, the entrance polls may create a "Heisenbergish outcome-distorting effect" if the campaigns switch tack pre-caucus.
If Obama is barely edging out Edwards in the (possibly inaccurate) entrance poll, with Hillary third, will Hillary order her supporters to switch over to Edwards in order to deny Obama a win? I don't think that's too far-fetched ...
