Tom Vilsack won the Iowa governorship in 1998 by telling voters that it was “time to rotate the crops” and cast off three decades of Republican rule.
Now some Democrats are reviving that sentiment as they make a new pitch to make gains in a state that has shifted sharply to the right in recent years.
“We’ve got some real opportunities here in 2026, and it’s evidenced by the fact that we have so many candidates who are throwing their hat in the ring,” Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said. “It’s time for a change to bring things back to [the] middle ground.’’
Democrats point to several reasons for their optimism. Less than two weeks after Donald Trump’s inauguration, the party flipped a state Senate seat the president had carried by double digits and then overperformed in two subsequent legislative special elections. Democrats also say Trump’s trade policies could have a negative impact on the state, especially its all-important agriculture sector.
And though the 2026 midterms are still 17 months away, Democrats have already locked in several experienced politicians for key races, including state Auditor Rob Sands, who is running for governor.
Then, late last month, a remark by Republican Sen. Joni Ernst at a town hall in Parkersburg shook up her bid for a third term. Ernst, an Iraq War veteran, was interrupted by an attendee who shouted that people would die as a result of cuts to Medicaid proposed by House Republicans.
“Well, we’re all going to die,” the senator responded, “so for heaven’s sake.” In the face of swift condemnation from Democrats, Ernst posted a follow-up video that appeared to be recorded in a cemetery and made light of the matter.
The race suddenly appeared a notch more competitive, though Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales currently rates it Solid Republican. Since her comment, several Democrats have announced campaigns against Ernst, including baseball player and state Rep. J.D. Scholten and state Sen. Zach Wahls. (Ernst also faces a challenge from the right from former state Sen. Jim Carlin.)
But unseating Ernst and others in the state’s all-GOP congressional delegation won’t be easy for Iowa Democrats. Once a purple-tinged presidential battleground with a strong populist streak, Iowa — like other former swing states such as Florida and Ohio — has become solidly Republican in the Trump era.
While Barack Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012, Trump has since won it three straight times, including by 14 points last fall. Sands is now Democrats’ sole statewide officeholder, and no Iowa Democrat has won election to Congress since Rep. Cindy Axne in 2020.
Republicans say those losses are largely because Iowa Democrats have embraced a progressive agenda that’s out-of-step with the state’s voters.
“Iowa is ruby red because Republicans like Joni Ernst fight for policies that unleash the economy, lower taxes, and make our communities safer,’’ Ernst campaign manager Bryan Kraber said in a text. “As Democrats fearmonger, Iowans see through their political plays and will always choose a strong conservative like Joni Ernst over paying higher taxes or pure hogwash like allowing men in women’s sports.”
Leaning into populism
Scholten says he hadn’t planned to jump into the Senate race so early, but Ernst’s comments prompted him to seize the moment.
Before winning his state House seat in 2022, he twice ran for Iowa’s rural 4th District, and in 2018 came within 3 points of unseating Republican Steve King, who had a history of making racist remarks.
Scholten said he’s running on an “inclusive economic populist message” that evokes the the prairie progressivism of former Sen. Tom Harkin and former Rep. Bruce Braley. But he’s also realistic about the steep odds faced by Democrats in Iowa.
“I see a level of frustration on the ground. Can we capitalize on that? That’s the big question,’’ he said in an interview Saturday, a few hours before his independent-league team, the Sioux City Explorers, defeated the Lake Country DockHounds.
Scholten is pitching himself as a candidate who can reach across the aisle and win over young men, a demographic Democrats have struggled to win over in recent years.
“Democrats are spending $20 million trying to find a message for how we talk to young men. Well, I’m getting paid $1,400 a month [as a minor league pitcher] to do that every single day,” he said.
Before taking on Ernst, Scholten will have to get past at least two fellow Democrats: Marine and Army veteran Nathan Sage, who entered the race back in April, and Wahls, who announced his campaign this week. Wahls has already received criticism from Republicans for his 2011 posts on Reddit, in which he discussed pornography and disclosed that his parents had given him a Playboy magazine subscription as a teenager.
“Iowa Democrats’ efforts to contrast their nonsensical support for open borders, violent riots, and men in women’s sports is talking about pornography and cursing in their announcement videos,’’ said Nick Puglia, regional press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Meanwhile, Joni Ernst is actually delivering for hard-working Iowans.”
Wahls dismissed the criticism, telling The New York Times, “The next generation of leaders have a bigger digital footprint than older leaders, because we grew up online.”
House races
Three of Iowa’s four House seats are currently rated competitive by Inside Elections.
Democrats’ top target is Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st District, which includes Davenport and Iowa City. Miller-Meeks, who features on CQ Roll Call’s initial list of the most vulnerable House members, defeated Democrat Christina Bohannan by 799 votes last year.
Bohannan has signaled she may launch a third bid against Miller-Meeks, who she says may face fallout from the impact of Trump’s tariffs and his efforts to slash government spending.
“At any given time, if [voters] feel like one party has gone a little too far, one way or the other way, there is a correction, and I think that’s what we’re seeing happen,” she said.
In the Des Moines-centered 3rd District, two state legislators — former House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst and Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott — are vying to unseat two-term Republican Rep. Zach Nunn.
Trone Garriott, an ordained Lutheran minister, served with Nunn in the state Senate and called him “kind of a do-nothing.” Konfrst said Nunn will have to answer for “the chaos [and] confusion” of the Trump administration.
Nunn’s campaign team highlighted his high score on the Lugar Center-McCourt School Bipartisan Index, which ranked him 10th in 2023.
“While Democrats field JV partisans in another messy liberal primary, Congressman Nunn is focused on delivering results for Iowans,’’ his spokesman, Mark Matava, said.
House Democrats included Nunn, Miller-Meeks and Rep. Ashley Hinson of the 2nd District on their initial target list of vulnerable Republicans and have said they will tie them to the president.
“They’re rubber stamping Trump’s reckless tariff policy, making everything more expensive and hurting Iowa’s farmers and agricultural economy,’’ Katie Smith, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in an email.
But Emily Tuttle, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, countered that Trump and congressional Republicans are delivering on what they promised.
“Voters across the heartland made it clear they wanted change after being left behind by the Biden Administration,’’ she said in an email. “Anyone claiming this will hurt Republicans in 2026 is either not paying attention or willfully blind to reality.”
Democrats’ decision to target Hinson, who represents the northeastern corner of the state, seems largely aspirational, said Kelly B. Shaw, a political science professor at Iowa State University. “I would be surprised if they really target that district heavily, just given the demographics that are there.’’
Still, Hinson has drawn a high-profile Democratic opponent in Kevin Techau, an Air Force veteran and former U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Iowa under President Barack Obama.
“I think this is going to be an extremely good cycle for Democrats,” Techau predicted. “People want a fresh perspective.”
This report has been updated to more accurately describe the baseball league J.D. Scholten plays for.
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