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Tom McCarthy (now) and Scott Bixby (earlier)

Huge Bernie Sanders rally in Iowa caps mad dash as Clinton clings to lead – as it happened

bernie sanders sioux city iowa
Bernie Sanders speaks to a massive crowd on Saturday night in Sioux City, Iowa. Photograph: Jamie-James Medina for the Guardian

Summary

We’re going to continue our live blog coverage of politics action in Iowa through the weekend. Tonight was a good night for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in the polls – but it was Vermont senator Bernie Sanders who seemed to demonstrate the most strength on the ground, with a huge rally in Iowa City with a climactic finish.

Finally the race has nearly arrived at the first actual voting, with the Iowa caucuses to take place on Monday. The question hanging in the air is – should tonight’s polling reflect the state of play in Iowa – can another candidate emerge, over the weekend or in the week ahead, to make a splash in New Hampshire or beyond in a way that challenges what appear to be robust leads in both the Democratic and Republican races?

Here’s a summary of where things stand:

  • A key poll in Iowa released two days before the state caucuses showed Donald Trump with a five-point lead over Texas senator Ted Cruz in the Republican nominating race, and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton with a three-point lead over Vermont senator Bernie Sanders in the Democratic race.
  • Sanders hosted a huge rally Saturday night in Iowa City, culminating in an onstage singalong of the Woody Guthrie standard “This Land Is Your Land.” His campaign manager said, “It’s not bad to be just a little bit behind.”
  • Texas senator Ted Cruz refused to concede Iowa, rallying into the night on the strength of a long-winded speech by professional talker Glenn Beck.
  • But Cruz stumbled a bit when Iowa officials criticized a mailer his campaign sent out accusing residents of a potential “voting violation” if they did not go to the polls. His campaign said it was just politics as usual.
  • Florida senator Marco Rubio drew big crowds and kept up a counter-attack against Cruz, hoping that his third-place ranking in the Des Moines Register poll might firm up and produce a surprise on Monday.
  • Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, found himself at 2% in Iowa, according to the DMR poll. That was neck-and-neck with “undecided.”
  • Clinton, who campaigned with husband Bill at an event in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, had reason to smile, after seeing a slide in the polls meet a seeming hard stop. The question is, will she still be smiling Monday night?
Good times.
Good times. Photograph: Adrees Latif/Reuters

Ted Cruz wins the late-night award, not yet having taken the stage at his Waterloo, Iowa, event – thanks, it seems, to an interminable introduction by ideas talker Glenn Beck.

Earlier.
Earlier. Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs is there, and keeping his feet:

Stay tuned...

Sanders' closing argument: This Land Is Your Land

Guardian US head of news David Taylor checks in from Sioux City at a scene which can only be described in Trumpian terms: HUGE.

After a raucous night at his University of Iowa in Iowa City, Sanders ended with a “democracy is not a spectator sport” cry from the heart, then added folk music to the equation, joking Vampire Weekend on stage for a version of This Land Is Your Land.

Mercifully, he didn’t reveal any of his reggae stylings as showcased on a forgotten charity album last week.

Here’s a nice video we shot:

Vampire Weekend does This Land Is Your Land, Bernie-style.

But take a look at that crowd:

A YUGE crowd for Bernie Sanders in Iowa City, Iowa, on Saturday night.
A YUGE crowd for Bernie Sanders in Iowa City, Iowa, on Saturday night. Photograph: Jamie-James Medina for Guardian US

Updated

The band is getting back together! A Cruz spokeswoman tweets a pic of Iowa’s god-fearin’, gun-totin’, vote-hopin’ supergroup:

Every rally tonight is overflowing, it seems:

[Ed. note: it’s a Saturday night rally in a college town...]

This is a bit strange: Not much chest-pounding going on for Trump on social media tonight. He hasn’t tweeted for 10 hours and his surrogates are likewise silent.

Is the idea to let the Register poll do the talking? But why not brag about it? Just a little bit?

Huge Sanders crowd in Iowa City

These folks can’t all be there to see Foster the People, can they? Vampire Weekend also is performing at the Sanders event tonight.

Hillary Clinton was introduced by former congresswoman Gabby Giffords at an Iowa event today, as part of her closing argument focused on Sanders’ imperfect record on gun control.

Here’s Pumped up Kicks:

Spot video: Cruz and Trump

The Guardian’s David Taylor shoots some video of the Ted Cruz campaign bus in Hubbard, Iowa, today, and of a Donald Trump rally in Clinton, Iowa.

Listen to Trump with the crowd, and the crowd with Trump. Muy sympatico.

Cruz in Hubbard, Trump in Clinton.

You can visit the Guardian US YouTube channel for uncut campaign trail footage here.

Ted Cruz made his closing argument in brutal, direct terms in a press conference in Sioux City, Iowa today, writes Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs:

Cruz stated bluntly to reporters: “A vote for Marco Rubio is a vote for amnesty and a vote for Donald Trump is a vote for Obamacare.”

The candidate in particular has tried to make the race a two-man race against Donald Trump. Cruz surrogate Bob Vander Plaats even said at a town hall in Ida Grove earlier in the day “a vote for any candidate but Ted is a vote for Donald Trump.”

Stop. Vote Cruz.
Stop. Vote Cruz. Photograph: Dave Kaup/Reuters

At the Sioux City rally, which featured a guest appearance from Phil Robertson of the reality show Duck Dynasty, the campaign handed out duck calls to mock “Ducking Donald” for not showing up at the GOP debate on Thursday and staging his own event. Cruz had previously challenged Trump to debate him “mano a mano” at the Sioux City event.

[Ed. note: Ben got ahold of one of the duck calls and is practicing as he files his evening wrap. After this rally it’s straight to the blinds.]

Is it even duck season?
Is it even duck season? Photograph: Don Gonyea / NPR

Updated

The Ben Carson campaign has issued a press release announcing that its chairman, General Bob Dees, has met with the deputy prime minister of Kosovo, Hashim Thaci.

YOLO
YOLO Photograph: Chris Carlson/AP

Friday marked the opening of the Kosovar consulate in Des Moines, which “highlights,” as the Carson PR has it, “the special relationship between the Republic of Kosovo and Iowa.”

Kosovo police wearing gas masks stand guard after the Parliament opposition lawmakers released tear gas in the Kosovo’s parliament in Pristina, on December 14, 2015.
Kosovo police wearing gas masks stand guard after the Parliament opposition lawmakers released tear gas in the Kosovo’s parliament in Pristina, on December 14, 2015. Photograph: Armend Nimani/AFP/Getty Images

The Iowa caucuses are on Monday. You can read more about the meet-up between the Carson campaign chairman and the deputy prime minister of Kosovo here (h/t @bencjacobs):

Updated

In Davenport, on the eastern edge of the state, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump broke with his standard formula of a pumped-up rally for something that looked more like a Saturday night talk show, writes Guardian West Coast bureau chief Paul Lewis from the scene:

The billionaire sat on a stage for a softball interview with the Christian evangelical leader Jerry Falwell Jr. Rows of the Adler Theater were packed with popcorn-eating spectators, many of whom appeared to have crossed the nearby border with Illinois to see the billionaire former star of The Apprentice.

“This is a movement,” Trump said. “Nothing like this has ever happened before.”

“This is a movement.”
“This is a movement.” Photograph: Charlie Neibergall/AP

The format may have been different, but during the 35-minute show the audience was given a glimpse of the rambling, unscripted monologues that have defined his presidential campaign, one that always seizes on on his remarkable poll numbers.

He briefly mentioned the Des Moines Register’s result that he said had made him “very happy”. Trump said he was most heartened by the underlying data in the newspaper’s poll that showed an increase in support from evangelicals. He attributed that to Falwell, president of a deeply-Christian college in Virginia and son of one America’s most famous conservative preachers.

The billionaire insisted Falwell was “a man of faith”. “Maybe I’m a little bit not as good as he is in that way,” Trump said. “But I’m good.”

There was a brief interruption, shortly after the Q+A was over and Trump was shaking hands with supporters, from a small crowd of students who broke out in a chant of “Feel The Bern”. It was largely drowned out by a rendition over the loudspeakers of opera singer Pavarotti’s famous rendition of Nessun Dorma.

Updated

No silver lining for Bush in Iowa poll

Republican candidate Jeb Bush registered at only 2% in the new Des Moines Register / Bloomberg poll. “Undecided” also came in at 2%.

Bush almost pulls down 11% support in polling averages in New Hampshire, where the vote will be held on 9 February. But that’s only good for fourth place, and far behind Donald Trump at 31%.

Can Bush summon a closing argument to save his historic 2016 race for the White House? In any case he’s still out there politicking:

Who let the dogs out.
Who let the dogs out. Photograph: Matthew Putney/AP

Updated

Candidates make closing arguments in Iowa

Welcome to the blog if you’re just joining us – and, awkward

Hi”

if you’ve been reading all along.

We wanted to frame the action of the evening as we come off the high of the Des Moines Register poll – looking good for Trump and Clinton in Iowa – and turn to the action on the ground now in Iowa, where voters will begin to caucus in fewer than 48 hours.

The Republican and Democratic candidates alike are tearing across the state tonight. Hillary Clinton has an event with Bill Clinton; Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio are all three on the stump; and Bernie Sanders is headlining a very special evening with opening act Vampire Weekend.

Our Scott Bixby served this video up earlier, and its improvement with time warrants its return:

Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts is in Iowa with Sanders:

While Guardian politics reporter Sabrina Siddiqui is with Rubio:

Our West Coast bureau chief Paul Lewis is tracking Trump tonight, as is politics reporter Ben Jacobs...

... while Cruz’s Sioux City crowd congregates in the cold.

Stay tuned for closing arguments!

Updated

Republican presidential candidate John Kasich, the Ohio governor, adds to his New York Times endorsement of earlier today with a nod from the Quad City Times, the influential news outlet of eastern Iowa.

Stick with me here, people.
Stick with me here, people. Photograph: John Minchillo/AP

Kasich was bumping along at 2 points in the freshly released Des Moines Register poll. But that was before voters read this editorial.

Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, who appears to be much more in contention for the Iowa caucus crown, also gets a nod from the paper.

Updated

Pick your event: Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders?

Both are live right now (or about to be) in Iowa, and streaming on YouTube. Watch them both!:

Trump
Sanders

Cruz under fire for misleading mailers

Ted Cruz has come under fire just two days before the Iowa caucuses for sending mailers to voters here that accuse them of a “voting violation,” earning the Texas senator and his presidential campaign formal denunciation by top officials in the state.

The mailers, which came to light on Friday and were confirmed by Cruz’s campaign as theirs, include a voting score and include the phrase “official public record.” They call out not only the recipients by name, but also their neighbors, as part of a broader attempt to shame them for not having participated in prior elections.

Paul Pate, Iowa’s Republican secretary of state, condemned Cruz’s campaign on Saturday for distributing the mailers -- which he said “misrepresents the role of my office, and worse, misrepresents Iowa election law.”

“Accusing citizens of Iowa of a ‘voting violation’ based on Iowa caucus participation, or lack thereof, is false representation of an official act,” Pate said in a statement. “There is no such thing as an election violation related to frequency of voting. Any insinuation or statement to the contrary is wrong and I believe it is not in keeping in the spirit of the Iowa caucuses.”

Catherine Frazier, a spokeswoman for Cruz, defended the move as part of a common practice to encourage voter turnout.

Scare out the vote.
Scare out the vote. Photograph: Dave Kaup/Reuters

The literature was “a standard mailer that folks at the Iowa Republican Party and other get-out-the-vote groups have used to help motivate low-propensity voters,” she said “We’re going to do everything we can to turn these folks out.

Matt Schultz, Cruz’s Iowa state chairman and a former secretary of state here, added that the mailer was modeled after similar mailers in the 2014 midterm elections that were sent out by the Republican Party of Iowa.

Those mailers, he said, “helped elect numerous Republican candidates during that cycle.”

Steve Deace, an influential conservative radio host and key surrogate for Cruz, also dismissed the backlash after initially declaring the mailers were fake only to be corrected later.

“Watching the same people not outraged when Cruz was called a fake Christian now pretend to be outraged by a mailer is, well, horse puckey,” Deace wrote on Twitter.

Even so, Cruz’s tactics quickly raised eyebrows across the political spectrum for their directness after a voter tweeted his outrage with a picture of the mailer -- which included an F rating for how he had voted in the past. The man said he had not been planning to caucus, but upon receiving the mailer he was, in fact, persuaded to caucus -- for Florida senator Marco Rubio, one of Cruz’s chief opponents.


Asked about the mailers on Saturday, Rubio told reporters he had heard about them from voters who were upset and “disturbed.”

“It’s kind of an unusual way to end your campaign in a state, Rubio said.

“It doesn’t sound like he’s feeling too good. It sounds like he’s under pressure and maybe not reacting very well to it, which his problematic because presidents are under pressure every day.”

Updated

Sanders camp: 'not bad to be just a little bit behind'

The Bernie Sanders campaign is taking the Des Moines Register poll in stride – as it’s just a poll, even though it might imaginably have been nice for Sanders to see the latest results reflect the earlier trend, which had Clinton falling out of the sky in Iowa. Instead she appears, in this particular poll, to have stanched the bleeding and even climbed a bit.

But in a neck-and-neck race, Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver has just told CNN, “It’s not bad to be just a little bit behind.” Still two days to go until the vote!

Conceding nothing.
Conceding nothing. Photograph: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Young women back Sanders. No-longer-as-young-as-they-used-to-be women back Clinton.

Updated

Clinton holds lead among 'definite' Iowa caucus-goers

The Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics poll asked people how likely they were to attend the Iowa caucuses. The information may be of some relevance if that blizzard materializes.

All smiles tonight.
All smiles tonight. Photograph: Jim Bourg/Reuters

The preferences of those who say they definitely will caucus appears to play well for Clinton, who leads Sanders 47-41 among the group.

On the Republican side, Trump is still up on the question, by four points, over Cruz, whose campaign has been trying to make the case that turnout may be less than anticipated, the implication being that Cruz would benefit in such a scenario.

Updated

Gosh when you stack the numbers up like this... that “Bush/Fiorina/Huck/Kasich/Santorum” line sticks out rather painfully at 2 points, doesn’t it?

And Rand Paul’s 5 points feels somehow valiant.

Voters bothered by Trump's use of eminent domain

Iowa likely caucus-goers did not care that Donald Trump sat out the final Republican debate in Des Moines, according to the DMR / Bloomberg poll.

46% of respondents, the plurality, said they did not care that Trump had sat the debate out. 24% approved of the decision while 29% disapproved.

But a Cruz attack on Trump’s use of eminent domain to clear way for property development appeared to hit home. 60% of respondents said they were bothered by the eminent domain attack.

Expect to see more of that attack.

The poll also asked voters which issues bothered them most about each candidate. It turns out that Ted Cruz’s previously undisclosed acceptance of a loan from Goldman Sachs in his 2012 Senate campaign bothered 54% of respondents. 44% said the loan did not bother them.

As for Cruz’s Canadian birth: 22% declared themselves bothered, while 75% said they did not care.

Trump's 'oddball coalition' in Iowa

Are you watching the Bloomberg event? Question on the table is what features jump out in looking at the demographics of Donald Trump supporters.

Ann Selzer, the director of the poll, says Trump “has a breadth of support across a lot of subgroups. He appeals to the moderates, to the mainstream...

He’s got this kind of oddball coalition.

One strong locus of support for Trump: people who make less than $70,000 a year.

As for turnout, they anticipate a slightly higher first-time turnout on the Republican side versus the Republican side – though they are not turnout projectionists.

Donald Trump is looking strong in the new Des Moines Register / Bloomberg poll of likely caucus-goers in Iowa (see graphic below).

After Iowa comes New Hampshire – and in New Hampshire, Trump is crushing the polling averages, at 18 points ahead of Cruz.

Updated

Clinton holds Iowa lead over Sanders in key poll

Encouraging for Clinton. In the same poll earlier this month, her lead was only two points. In this poll, at least, she has managed to halt her slide in support vis-a-vis the Vermont senator.

Trump up by 5 points on Cruz in Iowa – key poll

Donald Trump leads Texas senator Ted Cruz by five points in the Republican presidential nominating race in Iowa, just two days before the state’s caucuses, according to a gold-standard Des Moines Register–Bloomberg News poll published Saturday evening.

The poll had Trump at 28 points and Cruz at 23 points, with Florida senator Marco Rubio at 15 points and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 10.

On the Democratic side, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton leads Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 45-42, according to the poll, which surveys about 400 likely caucus-goers.

The poll is known for picking up on Iowa election dynamics that outsiders miss. This time the dynamic is, Clinton remains strong and Trump has fought off a challenge from Cruz.

I love you, Iowa.
I love you, Iowa. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Clinton was six points ahead of Sanders in the same poll in December, but only two points ahead of him earlier this month.

On the Republican side, the poll had Cruz up three points on Donald Trump earlier this month – reflecting a much tighter race than in December, when the poll had Cruz up 10 points in the state.

There were signs Saturday afternoon that the Cruz campaign was feeling jittery about the poll. Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe implied in a tweet that the Register tended to overestimate turnout. Cruz, meanwhile, called a news conference at 6.30pm ET, when the results were to be revealed.

Updated

Endorse.

68% of Iowa Democrats OK with 'Democratic socialist' president – poll

Now preliminary Democratic results in the Des Moines Register / Bloomberg poll. Mixed results with ... surprising strength for Sanders?

Is it time for a woman president? 80% agree

Are you OK with a Democratic socialist as president? 68% agree.

Now comparing Clinton and Sanders:

Who cares about people like you? Sanders 51-37 Clinton.

Updated

It turns out the Bloomberg broadcast of their precious poll results will proceed for about 10 minutes before the poll results – the main ones – are announced. Cool.

There are preliminary questions about traits. The poll asked likely caucus goers about their feelings about Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

Who would be most feared by US enemies?: Trump 50-21 Cruz

Who would bring about change?: Trump 37-21 Cruz

Who has the most knowledge and experience?: Cruz 26-17 Trump

Who cares most about people like you?: tie 19-19

Trump also came out on top in a question about who would win the general election. So good preliminary results for Trump, it seems.

Updated

Let’s hear it!

Guardian US head of news David Taylor reports from Clinton, Iowa – one of six Guardianistas out across the state this evening...

Trump brought his game show tactics and British classic rock soundtrack to a basketball hall at Clinton Middle School, where security was tight and he surrounded himself with a squad of nine bodyguards as he met people better described as fans than supporters.

Trump - and his Trumpeters. Nine in his security detail, the makeAmericagreatagain strongman has got better protection than Aaron Rodgers.
Trump - and his Trumpeters. Nine in his security detail, the makeAmericagreatagain strongman has got better protection than Aaron Rodgers. Photograph: Guardian

Beforehand as Elton John the Stones and The Beatles blared, Billie Selser said: “I watched him on TV, on The Apprentice. I’m interested to see what he has to say.”

There with her husband Bruce, they said they had never voted in a caucus before - and struggled to recall voting in a a presidential election.

They liked Kennedy, they agreed. “And Clinton - Bill Clinton wasn’t bad at all,” Bruce said, then asked if Trump: “Is he Democrat, or more Republican?”

The crowd of 1,055 took time to warm up but reserved their biggest cheers for the famous wall Trump promises - and enjoyed the audience participation moment when Trump asked which was the biggest problem facing his rival Ted Cruz. Canada drew bigger cheers than Wall Street as Trump laid out the Texas senators woes over funding and his birthplace.

The mane in the wild.
The mane in the wild. Photograph: Charlie Neibergall/AP

He seems to have adopted Sarah Palin’s line and vowed on Isis: “We will knock their asses off.”

Like others in the Republican field he offered a violent fantasy of rape and terrorism to justify ruling out gun controls.

“We’re gonna win by just being strong,” he promised, “nobody’s gonna mess with us.”

“Yeah!’ Yelled a man in a black cowboy hat.

“Your gonna love me as president,” Trump beamed back.

Updated

Of note: you can follow the release of the Des Moines Register/ Bloomberg poll live on the Bloomberg web site... if that’s how you’re sorted this Saturday evening:

Trump’s performance in Iowa, the thinking goes, could be damaged by a failure of his stated supporters to actually turn out at the caucuses and there spend the hours required to assert their preference.

The notion being that some of Trump’s stated supporters are more dabbling in politics the way you might flip channels between Celebrity Apprentice and Real Housewives of New Jersey, as opposed to practicing the kind of enriching civic participation that gets the rest of us up in the morning.

Here’s something that could interrupt voter turnout: extremely unpleasant weather. They’re due for some in Iowa on Monday, caucus day – although only in the west of the state, according to the current forecasts.

Votin’ weather. Outside Mt Pleasant Iowa on 4 January.
Votin’ weather. Outside Mt Pleasant Iowa on 4 January. Photograph: Alamy

Here’s what the current National Weather Service hazardous weather outlook looks like for “FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TUESDAY...WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY. WHITE OUT OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.

From the comments / Trump's deep unfavorability

This is a good point: Not every Democrat views Trump unfavorably.

User avatar for peacefulmilitant

But it’s simple enough to point out that a minority of Americans are Republicans, and that even among Republicans about 30% have a negative opinion of Trump. You can see where the 60% might come from.

This is true but those 30% of Republicans who don't like Trump are nearly canceled by the 20% of Democrats who are considering defecting to vote for him.

And whatever gauge we have now of Democrats’ view of Trump, we might note, is based on the current, right-ish incarnation of Trump. What would happen if he won the nomination and allowed himself to revert to his socially liberal views, support for a single-payer health care system and other Democrat-friendly stances? As The Atlantic has noted, the Bernie Sanders -Donald Trump overlap is ... wow-ing.

On the other hand, commenters say, it seems fairly plausible, just crystal-ball-wise, that a modest majority of Americans despise Trump?

User avatar for Stephen_Sean

Nobody I work with in DC likes Trump. We laugh at him and mock him. Blowhard racist. He is the "it" right now that everyone talks about but will never be President.

Updated

The big reveal. Why even bother voting ?

Updated

America hates Trump - Gallup

There may be a flaw in Donald Trump’s master plan to warp-warp to the White House in an awesome gilded helicopter emblazoned with his name, a new Gallup poll suggests.

60% of Americans, a would-be record for a presidential nominee, view Donald Trump unfavorably.

Was it something I said?
Was it something I said? Photograph: Rick Wilking/Reuters

Gallup:

Trump is the most unpopular candidate of either party when the entire U.S. population is taken into account -- and that he has a higher unfavorable rating than any nominated candidate from either of the two major parties going back to the 1992 election [when they started keeping track].

Wait, anyone might ask, what about the polls showing Trump with 41% nationally in the Republican race?

We personally are beyond explaining how Trump’s apparent strength in the polls may not translate to strength at the voting booth, having done it before and been quite wrong.

But it’s simple enough to point out that a minority of Americans are Republicans, and that even among Republicans about 30% have a negative opinion of Trump. You can see where the 60% might come from.

Updated

Cruz announces press conference timed to release of key poll

What will the Des Moines Register / Bloomberg poll expected out at 6.30 pm say?

Indecipherably, both the Trump and Cruz campaigns on Saturday seemed to throw cold water on the excitement surrounding the poll, a gold standard for polling.

Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe implied in a tweet that the Register tended to overestimate turnout:

Cruz has called a news conference at 6.30pm ET, when the results were to be revealed.

At a rally just now, meanwhile, Trump, of all people, has said polls “don’t even matter anymore”:

Republicans burn up trail in Iowa

The Republican candidates spent the penultimate day before the Iowa caucuses criss-crossing the state in search of electoral gold. Collectively they had 42 events scheduled for Saturday, according to one count. Texas senator Ted Cruz completed his tour of all 99 of the state’s counties with an early morning visit to Hardin County, north of Des Moines.

The tone has sharpened a bit, as candidates strive to draw distinctions between themselves and the competition. The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui is with Florida senator Marco Rubio in Ames as he lays into Cruz:

A special guest turned up in support of former Florida governor Jeb Bush, meanwhile: Iowa’s long-serving senior senator, Chuck Grassley, who last weekend popped up at a Trump event:

Updated

Hillary Clinton volunteers in Iowa are training when to push backers to former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley in order to block Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, Buzzfeed reports:

Hillary Clinton’s campaign for president is instructing its Iowa caucus leaders to — in certain cases — throw support to former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, with the goal blocking her main opponent, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, from securing additional delegates.

The idea is, we think, to prevent scenarios in which O’Malley clusters fail to reach critical mass, collapse, and then hemorrhage supporters to Sanders en masse. If Clinton can, in these scenarios we’re imagining, keep an O’Malley cluster on its feet a bit, until the time is right, then pull its supporters back to itself....

If this makes no sense to you, you are not alone! And you will want to watch this video...:

...and also this video:

Update: Click here too!

Updated

More from David Taylor…

Never mind the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, the drinkers of the Court Avenue Restaurant and Brewing Co in downtown Des Moines have already been casting their votes.

As of roughly midnight on Friday, this was the state of the race:

Beer sign
Beer = voting sense. Photograph: David Taylor/the Guardian

That’s Hillary beating Bernie by 20 points in the Democratic race and Trump out in front of Rubio with Ted drifting in third for the Republicans.

Gabby Giffords still struggles with her speech, five years after she was shot in the head in a mass shooting in Tucson, Arizona.

But standing beside Hillary Clinton in Ames, Iowa on Saturday, the former congresswoman said there were two words she looked especially forward to speaking one year from now: “Madame President.”

“Hillary is tough,” Giffords said at a rally with Clinton two days before the Iowa caucuses. “In the White House, she will stand up to the gun lobby. That’s why I’m voting for Hillary.”

Giffords introduces Clinton in Ames Saturday.
Giffords introduces Clinton in Ames Saturday. Photograph: Brian Snyder/Reuters

Giffords was joined by her husband, retired astronaut Mark Kelly, with whom she co-founded the anti-gun violence group Americans for Responsible Solutions after the 2012 mass shooting at Sandy Hook elementary school in Newtown, Connecticut. They endorsed Clinton earlier this month, but Saturday marked their first appearance on the campaign trail.

Clinton has increasingly sought to make gun control a wedge issue between her and Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator with whom she is locked in a competitive race for the Democratic nomination. Clinton’s campaign has aggressively pushed the narrative that Sanders’ record on gun safety has, on occasion, been more aligned with the agenda of the National Rifle Association.

“The facts cry out for action,” Clinton said of gun violence on Saturday, citing statistics showing roughly 33,000 gun-related deaths each year in America.

“This is as important a challenge as I think we face here at home,” she added, growing fired up.

“What is wrong with us? How can we continue to ignore the toll that this is taking on our children and on our country?”

Clinton also dismissed opponents who argue that any tightening of gun laws would infringe upon the second amendment:

The actions we take can certainly be done consistent with the constitution and the right of gun owners. That has never been a doubt unless you’re a paid lobbyist for the gun lobby.

Clinton has a long history of advocating for gun safety laws, an area in which she has been consistently to the left of Sanders. In recent months, she has criticized Sanders for supporting legislation that provided legal immunity to gun manufactures – a position on which the senator has now reversed course.

But that’s not all. Clinton has also pointed out that Sanders once voted in favor of the so-called “Charleston loophole” – the name for a provision under which a gun sale is required to proceed if a background check is not completed within three days.

It was under this loophole that authorities said Dylann Roof, the gunman who killed nine African-American churchgoers in Charleston, South Carolina last June, was able to acquire his gun despite holding a previous drug offense.

Sanders has knocked back criticism of his record, touting a D-minus rating from the NRA and pointing to his support for universal background checks and an assault weapons ban.

Clinton nonetheless hopes to make gun control a decisive issue in the Democratic primary, as well as the general election. She often takes aims at Republicans, too, for refusing to embrace any new gun laws whatsoever.

The entire Republican field is steadfastly opposed to gun safety reforms, framing the problem instead as one of mental health. The GOP candidates have also claimed that proposals on the table would not deter gun-related incidents.

On Saturday, Clinton said that saving any lives was important:

I’m not expecting we can stop everybody. But I think stopping some or a lot is a pretty big deal.

Updated

Sanders gets secret service protection

Vermont senator and Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders will join Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Hillary Clinton in receiving a personal protection detail from the US secret service, according to Fox news’ Ed Henry.

Clinton, as a former first lady, has enjoyed secret service protection for nearly a quarter century. Carson and Trump were both granted secret service protection details in October of last year - despite Carson’s drop in the polls, he retains his detail.

It’s not clear what prompted the Sanders campaign’s request for service, or (equally important) what the Vermont senator’s secret service codename will be. When asked during a Democratic primary debate in October what his name would be, Sanders responded with a dismissive “Who Knows?”

The codenames, a legacy from a time when intra-service communications weren’t encrypted, have been retained out of tradition, and are typically disyllabic, and family codenames are alliterative. For example, Clinton’s secret service codename is “Evergreen,” while her husband Bill’s nickname is “Eagle” and daughter Chelsea’s is “Energy.”

Updated

Former vice president Dick Cheney’s daughter will announce she’s running for the US house of representatives on Monday, according to the Associated Press. Liz Cheney filed federal election documents to run for Wyoming’s sole congressional seat, two years after a failed run for the US senate to represent the same state.

Campaign officials told the Associated Press that Cheney plans to formally announce in Gillette, a northeastern Wyoming that’s been on the rails since a decline in the coal industry. Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming’s current congressional representative, recently announced that she would not be running for reelection.

Cheney’s prior campaign for the US senate ended un-spectacularly, after the newly minted Wyoming citizen failed to gain traction with the state’s Republican establishment, despite impressive fundraising and her father’s eminence within the national party. She quit the race seven months before the primary, citing family health issues.

Not totally clear who senator Elizabeth Warren is subtweeting here, but we have a few semi-educated guesses:

The Iowa caucuses are among the most important contests in American politics. They are also nearly inscrutable.

The concept of an election is familiar to everyone – but by its very name, a caucus sounds different and archaic. However, give or take a few wrinkles, the Iowa caucuses are simply another election, held on a cold winter’s night in the Hawkeye State. The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs explains what’s going down on Monday, starting with...

What is a caucus?

Caucuses comprise the first part of a four-stage process that will choose the state’s delegates to each party’s national convention, where the presidential nominee is formally selected.

After the caucuses on 1 February (technically the precinct caucuses), there are county conventions and congressional district conventions, which all build to a state convention in the spring at which the national delegates are selected. It all fits together sequentially like a Russian nesting doll. Attendees at the precinct caucuses elect delegates to the country conventions, who elect delegates to district conventions, and on up the food chain.

The precinct caucuses are simply the first step in that process.

Get the full skinny here:

Sanders and Clinton agree to more debates

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have agreed to attend four more Democratic presidential primary debates, according to Buzzfeed News, pending approval by the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Should the DNC sanction the additional debate, the new schedule would begin with a proposed “unsanctioned” debate on February 4 in New Hampshire, hosted by the New Hampshire Union Leader and MSNBC.

The DNC hasn’t publicly come down for or against the campaigns’ requests to add four additional debate. The Sanders campaign proposed adding the four events - one each in February, March, April and May - after criticizing the DNC for scheduling the low-rated debates on weekends and holidays.The addition of four more debate would bring the total up to ten.

The next previously scheduled debate will be held Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on February 11, two days after the New Hampshire primary and less than two weeks before the South Carolina Democratic primary.

Updated

Hillary Clinton may have recently enjoyed the endorsement of the nation’s most high-profile LGBT organizations, but the another gay-focused non-profit has come out swinging against the Democratic presidential candidate.

With the Iowa caucuses only two days away, the Log Cabin Republicans - a conservative gay group - released a video online railing against the former secretary of state for her one-time opposition to same-sex marriage. The video quotes Clinton on her resistance to gay marriage, which she did not publicly support until 2013, after she had left the Obama administration.

“Was Hillary Clinton a gay rights advocate when it counted?”

“Was Hillary Clinton a gay rights advocate when it counted?” the video asks, before showing Clinton speaking against same-sex marriage on the floor of the US Senate. “I believe that marriage is not just a bond, but a sacred bond between a man and a woman,” Clinton says in the clip.

The ad also compares Clinton’s statements with one given by Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, her main competition for the Democratic presidential nomination, saying that “leadership counts … when the going is tough.”

Ted Cruz has started his weekend with a bloodcurdling, apocalyptic view of America’s immediate future … if he is not elected president. David Taylor reports from Hubbard, Iowa.

Even other Republicans would put at risk religious freedoms if they were in the Oval Office and allowed a “lawless” supreme court to push a radical leftwing agenda, the Texas senator warned a breakfast-time gathering at a middle school in snowy Hubbard, 60 miles north of Des Moines.

“We are one justice away from the supreme court taking away every single restriction on abortion and mandating abortion on demand... up to the moment of birth,” he said.

With the next president potentially in a position to nominate four new supreme court judges, Cruz said the nation was also “one justice away” from “veterans’ memorials being torn down if any have religious symbols … chisels coming out to chisel off crosses and Stars of David on the tombstones”.

Cruz, a former supreme court clerk who wrote briefs for the court as Texas solicitor general, claimed half of the Republican appointees to the supreme court were “disasters” and vowed to elect “principled and proven constitutional conservatives”.

About 150 supporters, mostly crowded around small child-sized dining tables, heard Cruz vow to order a criminal investigation into Planned Parenthood on day one as president, right after rescinding “every single illegal unconstitutional executive action taken by President Obama”.

After that, he said, he would tell the Department of Justice and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to end religious persecution, before using day two in the White House to rip to shreds the Iran nuclear deal, move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and repeal Obamacare.

He was challenged by one man who wanted to know what his idea for replacing Obamacare would look like, noting that his own brother in law had only gained health insurance in a losing battle against cancer because of the Obama reforms.

In an awkward exchange, Cruz faced the man and told him that in spite of his family’s experience millions of Americans had lost their health cover because of Obamacare.

Urging Republicans to caucus for him on Monday, Cruz said: “Who do you know who will kill the terrorists, defend the constitution and repeal Obamacare?”

Mother of six Abby Coster, a Cruz caucus captain for nearby Ellsworth, said she was backing the Texas senator for his integrity and willingness to stand up to Congress.

“Donald Trump is for himself,” she said of the national frontrunner, “we have no idea what he actually would be as a president. I don’t think he has the integrity because he is a salesman, the product is himself and he will say anything.

“As for Marco Rubio, I honour him, I think he is a very good Christian man. He would make a good president, however, he failed to keep his commitments to the people of Florida concerning immigration and amnesty.”

Updated

If any lucky Iowans out there don’t have any Saturday plans, Donald Trump has a few options:

Speaking of Kasich, here’s a thing from Dark Money, the new Jane Mayer book about rightwing conservative political spending.

This weekend, the Koch brothers convene their infamous donors summit in Palm Springs, California. On an equivalent weekend in 2014, Mayer writes, this happened:

John Kasich, the iconoclastic governor of Ohio, prompted an angry walkout by some 20 donors … for criticising the Koch network’s position against Medicaid expansion. In answer to Randy Kendrick [wife of Arizona Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick and a major donor], who had questioned his pro-Medicaid position, Kasich retorted, ‘I don’t know about you, lady. But when I get to the pearly gates, I’m going to have to answer for what I’ve done for the poor.’

He added: ‘I know this is going to upset a lot of you guys, but we have to use government to reach out to people living in the shadows.’

The Kochs never invited Kasich again.

So there you have it. John Kasich, the New York Times’ pick for the Republican nomination for president.

The New York Times isn’t the only monolith of Manhattan culture and power endorsing Hillary Clinton’s candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination: Vogue editor Anna Wintour has come out in support of the former secretary of state, saying that she’s confident that Clinton will be the next president of the United States.

Anna Wintour takes part in a question and answer session with Editor-in-Chief of the Guardian, Katherine Viner.
Anna Wintour takes part in a question and answer session with Editor-in-Chief of the Guardian, Katherine Viner. Photograph: Anna Gowthorpe/PA

The Guardian’s Hanna Ellis-Petersen has the details of Wintour’s exclusive interview with the Guardian’s editor-in-chief, Katharine Viner:

The editor-in-chief of American Vogue, who has hosted several high-profile fundraisers for the former US secretary of state who announced her candidacy in April, said she felt Clinton’s campaign was strong enough to secure her a place in the White House.

Wintour said her support for Clinton was not “just because she is a woman ... it’s because she’s the best choice”.

Referring to next month’s Iowa caucus, she said during the interview at the University of York: “We are all looking forward to the result in Iowa. I think Hillary is running a very strong campaign; she feels very confident.

“Of course it would be wonderful for Hillary Clinton to be the first female president, but I think she would be the first to say that she wouldn’t want people to vote for her just because she’s a woman. I think that’s a rather old fashioned way of thinking; people should vote for her because she’s the best choice. And if you look at who’s she’s running against, there’s no question that is the truth.”

Read the full story here:

In a one-two punch of endorsements from the American paper of record, the New York Times editorial board has also endorsed Ohio governor John Kasich.

Calling Kasich “the only plausible choice for Republicans tired of the extremism and inexperience on display in this race,” the editorial board lauded him as “capable of compromise and [someone who ]believes in the ability of government to improve lives”.

The majority of the column inches, however, were dedicated to tsk-tsking the current state of the Republican presidential field as “nasty, brutish and anything but short”. (In a 616-word endorsement, Kasich’s name isn’t even mentioned until the 405th word.)

Singling out the current binary star system at the top of the polls, the Times board called Donald Trump and Ted Cruz “equally objectionable for different reasons”: Trump because he’s inexperienced with and uninterested in policy; Cruz because his “campaign isn’t about constitutional principles; it’s about ambition”.

Quoting Kasich, who says he has “talked about hope and the future and positive things” during his campaign, the Times editorial board highlights the relative merit of the statement: “In this race, how rare that is.”

Updated

The New York Times editorial board has endorsed Hillary Clinton’s bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, calling the former secretary of state “the right choice for the Democrats to present a vision for America that is radically different from the one that leading Republican candidates offer”.

That vision, “in which middle-class Americans have a real shot at prosperity, women’s rights are enhanced, undocumented immigrants are given a chance at legitimacy, international alliances are nurtured and the country is kept safe,” stands in stark contrast to what the editorial board calls the “empty propaganda slogans” of the leading candidates for the Republican nomination.

As for Bernie Sanders, Clinton’s unexpectedly formidable opponent, the editorial board applauded the Vermont senator for pushing economic inequality to the center of the nomination fight, but argued that he “does not have the breadth of experience or policy ideas that Mrs Clinton offers. His boldest proposals … have earned him support among alienated middle-class voters and young people. But his plans for achieving them aren’t realistic.”

Mrs Clinton
‘Mrs Clinton has honed a steeliness that will serve her well in negotiating with a difficult Congress’– so says the New York Times. Photograph: Andrew Harnik/AP

The editorial board of the New York Times has already endorsed Clinton three times: twice for her former seat in the US senate and once during her quest for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.

Updated

Good morning, politicos! We’re only two days from the Iowa caucuses, and both the Democratic and Republican fields are pressing down to the wire, with neither party able to point to a clear leader in the race for Iowa’s heart.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, whose once-mighty lead in the Hawkeye state has narrowed to paper-thin margins, is focusing on rival Bernie Sanders’ complicated history on gun control in the final days of the Iowa campaign. The former secretary of state will be joined by former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, a survivor of a 2011 mass shooting that claimed the lives of six people.

Clinton, Giffords and the former congresswoman’s husband, astronaut Mark Kelly, will be in Ames, Iowa, likely to highlight Sanders’ opposition to the Brady bill that mandated background checks, and his previous support for legislation that shielded gun manufacturers from lawsuits. Sanders flipped on protections for gunmakers this week, saying he would co-sponsor a bill to repeal them.

Sanders, meanwhile, has scheduled an event with Dr Cornel West, as well as a Students for Bernie Concert, featuring appearances by Vampire Weekend, Foster The People and actor Josh Hutcherson. Obviously, this mandates a music break:

Fun fact: Vampire Weekend’s best song is actually M79.

On the Republican side of the race, Texas senator Ted Cruz is shifting his energy – and campaign reserves – to beating down the rising support of fellow senator Marco Rubio.

Although Cruz and Trump have been locked in a virtual tie in polls of likely caucus-goers for weeks, Cruz has redirected the full force of his campaign’s communications team towards Rubio, whose support has steadily increased in the waning days of the Iowa campaign. The target: Rubio’s waffling history on immigration reform.

Meanwhile, former secretary of defense Chuck Hagel has come out with a near-endorsement of Mike Bloomberg’s rumored presidential aspirations. In an interview with the New York Times, Hagel declared that the billionaire former New York mayor “understands governing, he understands leadership, he understands people. He’s got the qualities that are required for the presidency, starting with character”.

Considering the unpalatability of certain potential nominees, in Hagel’s view the fractured Republican field “would suggest that there may be an opening” for a third-party candidate’s successful campaign.

The Sword of Damocles hanging over all of this is the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, due to be drop at 5.45pm local time. The Iowa Poll, considered the “gold standard” of Iowa polling, is the last major poll released before Monday’s caucuses, and the stakes could not be higher. The most recent Iowa Poll showed margin-of-error contests between Republicans Ted Cruz and Donald Trump and Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

Let’s kick this baby off.

Updated

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