What's up with a S&P 500 stock rocketing 55% this year when profit is expected to fall? It's all about big hopes for next year.
Shares of discount retailer Dollar Tree are up big this year as investors look past this year's profit drop and out to an expected profit boom in 2026, says an Investor's Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSurge.
And Dollar Tree is not alone. Nine stocks in the S&P 500, including Super Micro Computer and L3Harris Technologies, are up 20% or more this year as investors look past profit drops in 2025 and forward to big earnings gains next year.
These rallies are further evidence of the overall bullishness in the market and for the S&P 500.
"We're more than three-fourths of the way through the second quarter earnings season, and we can safely say this: The companies are all right," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management.
Cashing In On Dollar Tree In The S&P 500
The big profit jump investors are getting ahead of is 16.6% expected growth in 2026. That's miles better than the 0.1% drop in profit expected this year.
And that's why Dollar Tree's stock has gained more this year than any of the other S&P 500 turnaround stories. The stock carries an RS Rating of 94. Analysts think profit will fall 12% this year (0.1% on an adjusted calendar year basis. But they're calling for a 16.6% profit jump in calendar 2026.
Super Turnaround At Super Micro
Shares of the maker of high-performance computing systems are up nearly 48% this year. That's despite of an expected 33% drop in profit this calendar year. Why the buzz? Analysts think the company's profit will rise 83% in 2026.
Shares carry a solid RS Rating of 92. But earnings growth need to catch up. Apparently, investors want to get in early rather than waiting for the profits to materialize.
Investors Get In Ahead Of Turnarounds
| Company | Ticker | 2025 EPS ch. est. | 2026 EPS gr. est. | YTD stock % ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar Tree | DLTR | -0.1% | 16.6% | 54.9% |
| Super Micro Computer | SMCI | -32.5% | 83.1% | 47.5% |
| L3Harris Technologies | LHX | -19.4% | 16.8% | 29.1% |
| Northrop Grumman | NOC | -2.5% | 13.9% | 23.8% |
| CrowdStrike Holdings | CRWD | -6.6% | 34.6% | 23.7% |
| Franklin Resources | BEN | -6.4% | 18.7% | 23.4% |
| Wynn Resorts | WYNN | -11.4% | 22.0% | 23.3% |
| Estée Lauder | EL | -12.5% | 40.2% | 21.6% |
| Deere | DE | -14.9% | 12.0% | 20.8% |
